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Box sets » Public spending » Departmental spending

  • Health
  • Education
  • Fiscal sustainability report - July 2018 | Box: 3.3 | Page: 85

    Age-related spending in Europe

    Our 2018 long-term fiscal projections suggested that, if left unaddressed, the public sector finances would come under increasing pressure over the next 50 years. This box compared our long-term age related spending projections over the period from 2025 to 2065 with those presented in the European Commission's 2018 Ageing Report.

    Fiscal categories: Departmental spending, Education, Health, Public spending, State pension, Welfare spending

    Cross-cutting categories: Ageing population, Demographics, Pensions

    Read more
  • Economic and fiscal outlook - November 2017 | Box: 3.1 | Page: 52

    The economic effects of policy measures

    In each Economic and fiscal outlook we publish a box that summarises the effects of the Government’s new policy measures on our economy forecast. These include the overall effect of the package of measures and any specific effects of individual measures that we deem to be sufficiently material to have wider indirect effects on the economy. In our November 2017 Economic and fiscal outlook, economy forecast adjustments included the effects of looser fiscal policy on GDP, the effects of tax policy changes on inflation and the effects of stamp duty relief for first-time-buyers on house prices.

    Economy categories: GDP by expenditure, Housing market, Inflation

    Fiscal categories: Departmental spending, Fuel duty, Public spending, Receipts, Stamp duty land tax

    Read more
  • Forecast evaluation report - October 2017 | Box: 3.1 | Page: 44

    Revisions to borrowing in 2016-17

    Initial estimates of the deficit can be revised significantly over subsequent months as more reliable data become available. This box set out how our forecasts during 2016 and 2017 evolved and how the outturns for 2016-17 were revised over time.

    Fiscal categories: Corporation tax, Departmental spending, Income tax, National Insurance Contributions, Public sector net borrowing, VAT

    Read more
  • Economic and fiscal outlook - March 2017 | Box: 3.2 | Page: 43

    The economic effects of policy measures

    In each Economic and fiscal outlook we publish a box that summarises the effects of the Government’s new policy measures on our economy forecast. These include the overall effect of the package of measures and any specific effects of individual measures that we deem to be sufficiently material to have wider indirect effects on the economy. In our March 2017 Economic and Fiscal Outlook, we adjusted our economy forecast for the effects of reducing the ‘personal injury discount rate’.

    Economy categories: Inflation

    Fiscal categories: Departmental spending, Public spending

    Cross-cutting categories: Discount rates, Financial sector

    Read more
  • Economic and fiscal outlook - March 2017 | Box: 4.2 | Page: 96

    The personal injury discount rate

    In February 2017, just ahead of the Spring Budget and our March Economic and fiscal outlook, the Ministry of Justice announced that the ‘personal injury discount rate’ would be reduced from 2.5 to minus 0.75 per cent (in inflation-adjusted real terms). This box explained the direct and indirect effects of this change on our receipts and public spending forecasts.

    Economy categories: Inflation

    Fiscal categories: Debt interest spending, Departmental spending, Insurance premium tax, Public spending, Receipts

    Cross-cutting categories: Discount rates

    Read more
  • Fiscal sustainability report - January 2017 | Box: 3.1 | Page: 42

    Other cost pressures in the health sector

    Over the past four decades, health spending in the UK rose faster than GDP (on average in real terms) and it increased steadily in real per capita terms. Demographic change alone could have not explained these rising trends, with other factors expected to provide further upward pressures on health spending. This box summarised the key findings of our WP No. 9 that reviewed the latest evidence on demographic and non-demographic determinants of health spending in the UK and its implications for our long-term health spending projections.

    Economy categories: Labour market, Population and migration

    Fiscal categories: Departmental spending, Health, Public spending

    Read more
  • Economic and fiscal outlook - March 2016 | Box: 3.2 | Page: 50

    The economic effects of policy measures

    In each Economic and fiscal outlook we publish a box that summarises the effects of the Government’s new policy measures on our economy forecast. These include the overall effect of the package of measures and any specific effects of individual measures that we deem to be sufficiently material to have wider indirect effects on the economy. In our March 2016 Economic and Fiscal Outlook, we made a number of economy forecast adjustments to GDP, business investment, wage growth, inflation and the housing market.

    Economy categories: Business investment, GDP by expenditure, GDP by income, Household disposable income, Inflation

    Fiscal categories: Departmental spending, Housing associations, Insurance premium tax, National Insurance Contributions, Public spending, Receipts, Soft drinks industry levy, Welfare spending

    Read more
  • Economic and fiscal outlook - July 2015 | Box: 3.2 | Page: 39

    Fiscal multipliers

    In the run up to the July 2015 Budget, fiscal policy had been tightened every year since 2010-11. This box, published in our July 2015 Economic and fiscal outlook, set out the fiscal multiplier framework used to estimate the overall effect of changes in fiscal policy on the economy. This box also outlined two ways in which this framework changed with regards to the tapering of multiplier effects across time and the assumed differences in multiplier effects on real and nominal GDP.

    Economy categories: GDP by expenditure, Government consumption

    Fiscal categories: Departmental spending, Public spending

    Cross-cutting categories: Fiscal multipliers

    Read more
  • Fiscal sustainability report - June 2015 | Box: 3.1 | Page: 74

    Age-related spending projections in Europe

    Our 2015 long-term fiscal projections suggested that, if left unaddressed, the public sector finances would have come under increasing pressure over the next 50 years due to rising age-related expenditure. This box compared our long-term age related spending projections with projections from the Ageing Working Group (2015) for the EU countries between 2020 and 2060.

    Economy categories: Labour market, Population and migration

    Fiscal categories: Departmental spending, Education, Health, Public spending

    Cross-cutting categories: Ageing population, Demographics, International comparisons

    Read more
  • Fiscal sustainability report - June 2015 | Box: 3.3 | Page: 95

    Drivers of rising health spending

    Health spending rose faster than GDP in almost all European countries over the past decade. This box investigated most notable long-term drivers of real spending on health care: demographic effects, income effects and other cost pressures.

    Economy categories: GDP by income, Labour market, Population and migration, Productivity

    Fiscal categories: Departmental spending, Health, Public spending

    Cross-cutting categories: Ageing population, Demographics, International comparisons

    Read more
  • Economic and fiscal outlook - March 2015 | Box: 3.2 | Page: 43

    The economic effects of policy measures

    In each Economic and fiscal outlook we publish a box that summarises the effects of the Government’s new policy measures on our economy forecast. These include the overall effect of the package of measures and any specific effects of individual measures that we deem to be sufficiently material to have wider indirect effects on the economy. In our March 2015 Economic and Fiscal Outlook, we made adjustments to nominal GDP, inflation and North sea production.

    Economy categories: GDP by expenditure, GDP by income, Household consumption, Household disposable income, Housing market, Inflation, Property transactions, Residential investment

    Fiscal categories: Departmental spending, Oil and gas revenues, Public spending, Receipts

    Cross-cutting categories: Financial sector, Pensions

    Read more
  • Economic and fiscal outlook - March 2015 | Box: 4.3 | Page: 137

    Switches between DEL and AME and other devolution changes to DELs

    In this forecast, there were two policy switches that shifted spending between RDEL and AME, which applied from 2015-16 onwards. This box outlined these changes and examined the subsequent impact these would have on our forecast.

    Fiscal categories: Business rates, DEL and AME switches, Departmental spending, Public spending, Receipts

    Read more
  • Economic and fiscal outlook - December 2014 | Box: 4.6 | Page: 147

    What does our forecast imply for day-to-day public services spending?

    We were asked by our stakeholders whether we considered the implications for current spending on public services (RDEL) in our forecasts to be central, as we are tasked with producing a central forecast. This box outlined RDEL implied spending from 2016-17 to 2019-20 (years in which firm spending plans did not exist and RDEL levels were set by a government policy assumption). The box also examined the implied breakdown of RDEL by some of the main spending areas in 2019-20, in particular examining the implications of then-current government RDEL assumptions for public services spending that was not protected in some way.

    Fiscal categories: Departmental spending, Health, Public spending

    Read more
  • Economic and fiscal outlook - December 2013 | Box: 4.4 | Page: 127

    Changes to the classification of data in OSCAR

    In this forecast, we switched to using spending data from a new source, which was the Treasury’s new public spending database known as OSCAR (short for their ‘Online System for Central Accounting and Reporting’). This led to some switches between DEL and AME, which we treated as classification changes, because they affected our presentation of DEL and AME for all years, including outturn and forecasts. This box explained those changes.

    Fiscal categories: Departmental spending, Public spending

    Cross-cutting categories: Brexit and the EU, Classification changes, Data revisions

    Read more
  • Economic and fiscal outlook - March 2013 | Box: 3.1 | Page: 42

    The economic effects of policy measures

    In each Economic and fiscal outlook we publish a box that summarises the effects of the Government’s new policy measures on our economy forecast. These include the overall effect of the package of measures and any specific effects of individual measures that we deem to be sufficiently material to have wider indirect effects on the economy. In our March 2013 Economic and Fiscal Outlook, we made adjustments to our forecasts of real GDP, business investment and inflation

    Economy categories: Business investment, GDP by expenditure, Housing market, Inflation, Property transactions, Residential investment

    Fiscal categories: Corporation tax, Departmental spending, Income tax, National Insurance Contributions, Public spending, Receipts

    Read more
  • Economic and fiscal outlook - December 2012 | Box: 3.3 | Page: 51

    The economic effects of policy measures

    In each Economic and fiscal outlook we publish a box that summarises the effects of the Government’s new policy measures on our economy forecast. These include the overall effect of the package of measures and any specific effects of individual measures that we deem to be sufficiently material to have wider indirect effects on the economy. In our December 2012 Economic and Fiscal Outlook, we made adjustments to our forecasts of real GDP, inflation and property transactions

    Economy categories: Housing market, Inflation, Sector net lending

    Fiscal categories: Corporation tax, Departmental spending, Fuel duty, Public spending, Receipts, UK-Swiss tax agreement, Welfare spending

    Cross-cutting categories: Financial sector, Monetary policy

    Read more
  • Fiscal sustainability report - July 2012 | Box: 3.2 | Page: 73

    European Commission estimates of ageing pressures

    The European Commission (EC) produces its own analysis of ageing pressures for member states every three years. This box contrasted the forecast made by the EC and the OBR for UK age related spending such as pensions, health care and long-term care.

    Fiscal categories: Departmental spending, Health, Public spending, State pension, Welfare spending

    Cross-cutting categories: Ageing population, Demographics, External forecasts, Pensions

    Read more
  • Fiscal sustainability report - July 2012 | Box: 3.3 | Page: 88

    Sensitivity to age and gender profiles

    The National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) produce generational accounts estimates for the UK. The OBR produces its own long-term projections by using profiles that break down spending by year of age. This box compared the differences in public finance forecasts between the OBR and the NIESR with the latter implying a lower level of net debt by 2061‑62.

    Fiscal categories: Departmental spending, Health, Public spending

    Cross-cutting categories: Demographics, External forecasts

    Read more
  • Fiscal sustainability report - July 2011 | Box: 3.3 | Page: 79

    What if all PFI deals were brought on balance sheets?

    The majority of Private Finance Initiative (PFI) assets are held off the public sector balance sheet in the National Accounts. The running costs relating to existing PFI contracts are included within agreed departmental spending envelopes. This box explored the impact on our net debt projections if all capital liabilities relating to PFI contracts were included.

    Fiscal categories: Departmental spending, Public spending

    Cross-cutting categories: Classification changes, Data revisions, Public sector balance sheet

    Read more
  • Economic and fiscal outlook - March 2011 | Box: 3.6 | Page: 73

    General government employment

    Our general government employment (GGE) forecast is based on projections of the growth of the total government paybill and paybill per head, which is in turn based on the Government's latest spending plans. Ahead of our March 2011 forecast, ONS estimates of general government employment were revised up, largely reflecting the reclassification of employees in further education colleges. In this box we set out the extent to which changes to our general government employment forecast were a result of our revised projections for paybill growth as opposed to data revisions.

    Economy categories: Employment and unemployment, General government employment, Labour market

    Fiscal categories: Departmental spending, Locally financed expenditure, Public spending

    Read more
  • Economic and fiscal outlook - March 2011 | Box: 4.3 | Page: 144

    Impact of inflation on the public finances

    This box set out the various impacts that higher inflation has on the public finances. These include direct effects (e.g. on income tax and debt interest spending), the impact on nominal tax bases (such as household consumption) and the impact on departmental spending.

    Economy categories: Inflation

    Fiscal categories: Business rates, Departmental spending, Income tax, National Insurance Contributions, Public service pension payments, Public spending, Receipts, State pension, VAT, Welfare spending

    Read more
  • Economic and fiscal outlook - November 2010 | Box: 3.7 | Page: 64

    General government employment

    Our general government employment (GGE) forecast is based on projections of the growth of the total government paybill and paybill per head, which is in turn based on the Government's latest spending plans. Ahead of our November 2010 forecast, those plans were updated as part of the 2010 Spending Review. We also made a number of refinements to our forecasting approach. In this box we described revisions to our general government employment forecast and explain the extent to which these changes were the result of methodological changes as opposed to revised spending plans.

    Economy categories: Employment and unemployment, General government employment, Labour market

    Fiscal categories: Departmental spending, Public service pension payments, Public spending

    Read more
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