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External review publication date announced

3 February 2025

The third external review of the work of the OBR, led by Laura van Geest, will be published on Monday 10 February.

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Supplementary forecast information on carried interest, non-domicile regime, and IHT on pensions measures costings in the October 2024 Budget

30 January 2025

Since the publication of our October 2024 Economic and fiscal outlook (EFO) we have received requests for further information on the costing of changes to carried interest, non-domicile regime, and IHT on pensions measures. We have published this new supplementary forecast information below and on the October 2024 EFO page.

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March 2025 forecast timetable

22 January 2025

On 16 December 2024 the Chancellor commissioned us to publish our latest outlook for the economy and public finances on Wednesday 26 March. We have now agreed the timetable for the forecast process and published the detail below.

Other news

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Revisions push year-to-date borrowing above forecast

This morning’s ONS release shows that borrowing in the first eight months of 2024-25 totalled £113.2 billion. This is £0.4 billion below the same period last year but £2.0 billion above the monthly profile consistent with our October forecast. This difference reflects upward revisions to borrowing by local authorities and public corporations, which is only…

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Spring 2025 forecast date announced

The Chancellor has announced that the Spring forecast  will take place on Wednesday 26 March 2025. Our latest outlook for the economy and public finances will be released on the same day.

Welsh taxes outlook

Welsh taxes outlook – December 2024

In accordance with the fiscal framework agreed by the Welsh and UK Governments, we are formally commissioned by the Welsh Government to produce independent forecasts for devolved Welsh taxes alongside its Draft Budgets. On 10 December we published our forecasts for devolved Welsh taxes in our 2024 Welsh taxes outlook (WTO). The report is available…

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Supplementary forecast information on our long-term fiscal projections

Since the publication of our September 2024 Fiscal risks and sustainability (FRS) report, we have received a request for further detail on our long-term fiscal projections. We have published this new supplementary forecast information below and on the September 2024 FRS page.

Line chart showing cumulative public sector net borrowing

Year-to-date borrowing slightly up on previous year

This morning’s ONS release shows that borrowing in the first seven months of 2024-25 totalled £96.6 billion. This is £1.1 billion above the same period last year. The year-on-year increase is driven primarily by higher central government spending, particularly departmental consumption expenditure and welfare spending. Strength in receipts compared to last year has offset a…

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Review of the March 2024 forecast for departmental expenditure limits

Alongside the October 2024 Economic and fiscal outlook we published our Review of the March 2024 departmental expenditure limits (DEL) forecast. We also wrote to the Chair of the Treasury Select Committee with the findings, recommendations and answers to questions received about the review process.

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Budget delivers large increases in spending, tax, and borrowing

The Budget increases spending by £70 billion annually, with two-thirds on current and one-third on capital spending. Half is funded through tax increases which raise £36 billion annually and push the tax take to a record 38 per cent of GDP. The rest is funded by £32 billion more borrowing annually which temporarily boosts GDP…

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October 2024 forecast timetable and details regarding the upcoming EFO

On 29 July 2024 the Chancellor announced that the Budget will be held on Wednesday 30 October and commissioned us to publish our latest outlook for the economy and public finances that day. We have now agreed the timetable for the forecast process and published the detail below. Update on 21 October: Financial market assumptions…