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Richard Hughes distils the key messages from our latest Economic and fiscal outlook in his press conference presentation and accompanying speaking note.

Alongside the October 2024 Economic and fiscal outlook we published our Review of the March 2024 departmental expenditure limits (DEL) forecast. We also wrote to the Chair of the Treasury Select Committee with the findings, recommendations and answers to questions received about the review process.

The Budget increases spending by £70 billion annually, with two-thirds on current and one-third on capital spending. Half is funded through tax increases which raise £36 billion annually and push the tax take to a record 38 per cent of GDP. The rest is funded by £32 billion more borrowing annually which temporarily boosts GDP…

On 25 October, the Shadow Chancellor, Rt. Hon. Jeremy Hunt MP sent an email to Chair Richard Hughes regarding the March 2024 DEL forecast review. Richard Hughes replied on 27 October. Both are available below.

On 29 July 2024 the Chancellor announced that the Budget will be held on Wednesday 30 October and commissioned us to publish our latest outlook for the economy and public finances that day. We have now agreed the timetable for the forecast process and published the detail below. Update on 21 October: Financial market assumptions…

Our latest Forecast evaluation report examines the performance of our March 2023 forecast and scenarios and draws lessons for future exercises. During 2023-24, GDP growth was close to zero and in line with our forecast. Despite rapid falls in energy prices, inflation was still higher than we forecast due to more substantial pass-through of prior…

The proportion of the working-age population in receipt of incapacity benefits reached a post-financial crisis high of 7.0 per cent in 2023-24 and is forecast to continue rising. This Welfare trends report focuses on the operation of the incapacity benefits system since 2010. Only a minority of the rise in incapacity benefits onflows over the…

Since the publication of our March 2024 Economic and fiscal outlook (EFO) we have received a request for further information underlying our environmental levies forecast. We have published this new supplementary forecast information below and on the March 2024 EFO page.

This morning’s ONS release shows that borrowing in the first five months of 2024-25 totalled £64.1 billion.This is £0.3 billion above the same period last year and £6.2 billion above the monthly profile consistent with our March forecast. Higher-than-expected borrowing continues to be driven by departmental spending, particularly consumption expenditure on goods and services which…

Richard Hughes distils the key messages from our latest Fiscal risks and sustainability report in his press conference presentation and accompanying speaking note. Watch back on YouTube here: