"It is the duty of the Office to examine and report on the sustainability of the public finances"
24 July 2024
We have published our updated tax and spending ‘ready reckoner’ that allows anyone to obtain quick, indicative estimates of the fiscal impact of a particular change in one or more economic variables. Read our updated article on the ready reckoner to find out more. We also received a request for further information on the price…
19 July 2024
Borrowing in the first three months of 2024-25 was £49.8 billion, £1.1 billion below the same period last year but £3.2 billion above our forecast profile. This was largely driven by highly provisional data on departmental spending returns, particularly for consumption expenditure which is £4.6 billion higher than forecast. Receipts in the first three months…
18 July 2024
The Government has introduced to Parliament the Budget Responsibility Bill and published a draft update to related provisions of the Charter for Budget Responsibility. The Bill would amend the 2011 Budget Responsibility and National Audit Act and require any fiscally significant measures announced by the Government to be accompanied by an independent assessment by the…
This has been postponed in light of the announcement of a General Election on Thursday 4 July. Our latest report on Fiscal risks and sustainability (FRS) will be published on Tuesday 2 July. The 2024 FRS report will focus on three current pressures on the public finances: Climate change, where we will explore the potential…
Initial outturns for April 2024 suggest that borrowing was £1.2 billion (6.3 per cent) higher than our March forecast profile. This was driven by each of departmental expenditure on goods and services and spending on net social benefits coming in above forecast, and central government receipts coming in below forecast (by £0.8 billion in each…
We have published our latest long-term assumptions, consistent with the forecast in our March 2024 Economic and fiscal outlook (EFO), below and on the March 2024 EFO page. These economic determinants that underpin our long-term fiscal projections are used by organisations inside and outside government to inform their own long-term modelling.
We have published monthly profiles for receipts, spending and borrowing in 2024-25, consistent with our March 2024 Economic and fiscal outlook, below and alongside our monthly commentary on the public finances.
This has been postponed in light of the announcement of a General Election on Thursday 4 July. Our 2024 Welfare trends report (WTR) will be published on 2 July. This biennial report will examine the drivers of spending on incapacity benefits. It will be released alongside the upcoming Fiscal risks and sustainability report. On 18…
Since the publication of our March 2024 Economic and fiscal outlook (EFO) we have received a request for further information on our forecast of fuel duty receipts by vehicle type. We have published this new supplementary forecast information below and on the March 2024 EFO page.
The ONS’s initial full-year estimate of government borrowing in 2023-24 is £120.7 billion (4.4 per cent GDP), a £7.6 billion (5.9 per cent) decrease on the previous year. This is £6.6 billion (5.8 per cent) higher than our March forecast. This difference is largely driven by the initial estimate of central government receipts, which is…
Since the publication of our March 2024 Economic and fiscal outlook (EFO) we have received a request for information on work capability assessment reform. We have published this new supplementary forecast information below and on the March 2024 EFO page.
Since the publication of our March 2024 Economic and fiscal outlook (EFO) we have received requests for information on universal credit in-work and universal credit budgeting advances. We have published this new supplementary forecast information below and on the March 2024 EFO page.
This morning’s ONS data release estimates that borrowing in the first 11 months of 2023-24 was £106.8 billion, £4.6 billion below the same period last year. Borrowing in February was £8.4 billion, down £3.4 billion on the same month last year.
Since the publication of our March 2024 Economic and fiscal outlook (EFO) we have received requests for information on car engine types in the fuel duty forecast and further information on health and disability benefit spending. We have published this new supplementary forecast information below and on the March 2024 EFO page.
We have published two letters of correspondence on our website today. John McDonnell MP wrote to us on 7 March asking for clarification on the methodology used for the CGT changes announced at Budget and for an explanation of the different numbers presented in the OBR’s Economic and fiscal outlook and the Treasury’s Red Book….
Richard Hughes distils the key messages from our latest Economic and fiscal outlook in his press conference presentation and accompanying speaking note.
Overall, the economic and fiscal outlook is similar to November. While growth has slightly disappointed since then, a steeper fall in inflation and interest rates should support a stronger recovery. Against this backdrop, the Budget announces another 2p cut in national insurance, the cost of which is partly recouped through other tax rises. Public services…
We have published an update to the Welsh taxes outlook (WTO) with new forecasts for land transaction tax and landfill disposals tax receipts, including evaluations of our previous forecasts including for the Welsh rates of income tax. The report is available in English and Welsh language. Welsh taxes outlook Rhagolwg trethi Cymreig