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We’re seeking views from you to help shape the future of our website and online publishing. Whether you use the site for our forecasts and data, or our analysis and research, we’d like to hear about your experience. Your feedback will help inform decisions about how the OBR publishes and presents its content online in…

The Chancellor has commissioned the OBR to produce our next forecast on Wednesday 28 October 2026. We will publish an updated Economic and fiscal outlook (EFO) on that day. Updated 10 September: We have now agreed the final details of the timetable for the forecast process. We will set out details of this timetable in the…

This morning’s ONS release estimates that borrowing in the first three months of 2026-27 totalled £57.6 billion. This is £3.7 billion below the same period last year and £2.7 billion above the monthly profile consistent with our March forecast. Central government spending is £3.6 billion above forecast for the year-to-date, primarily reflecting higher debt interest…

Professor Jonathan Haskel was nominated as the next Chair of the Office for Budget Responsibility by the Chancellor in June. The House of Commons Treasury Committee has now confirmed his appointment, saying ‘We are satisfied that Professor Haskel has the appropriate professional competence and personal independence to carry out his role‘. Find out more on…

The Chancellor of the Exchequer has today nominated Professor David Miles CBE for reappointment to the Office for Budget Responsibility’s Budget Responsibility Committee (BRC) for a second and final term, subject to the approval of the House of Commons Treasury Committee. As a member of the BRC, Professor David Miles shares executive responsibility for the…

Our Fiscal risks and sustainability report examines the likely major pressures on the public finances over the next 50 years. Long-term projections are highly uncertain and sensitive to the underpinning assumptions. But almost all our scenarios show public debt eventually moving onto an unsustainable path. Debt moves onto a steep upward trajectory in the 2040s…

We have published a report setting out our response to the November 2025 Economic and fiscal outlook publication error and our progress against the recommendations of the resulting investigations. The report outlines our approach to web publishing, including interim arrangements using both GOV.UK and the OBR’s main website. It also explains the steps we have…

The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) was created in 2010 to provide independent and authoritative analysis of the UK’s public finances. We are seeking to appoint two non-executive members to the OBR’s Oversight Board, one to immediately replace Dame Susan Rice, whose first term ended on 19 June 2026, and one to replace Baroness Hogg…

The Chancellor has nominated Prof. Jonathan Haskel CBE, Professor of Economics at Imperial College London and former Monetary Policy Committee member at the Bank of England, as the next Chair of the Office for Budget Responsibility. If the nomination is approved by the Treasury Committee, he would take up his post later this year. Professor…

Welfare fraud and error rates rose sharply during the Covid pandemic in 2020-21 and 2021-22, a period which also coincided with the rollout of universal credit. Our new analysis shows that the increase was mainly driven by those making new welfare claims during the pandemic, and so was likely primarily due to temporary operational easements…

This morning’s ONS release estimates that borrowing in the first two months of 2026-27 totalled £46.3 billion. This is £8.9 billion above the same period last year and £7.7 billion above the monthly profile consistent with our March forecast. The current overshoot against the forecast is mainly driven by central government spending, which is £4…

The Chancellor of the Exchequer has announced that Baroness Hogg has been re-appointed as a non-executive member of the OBR. Tom Josephs and Professor David Miles said: “We are delighted that Baroness Hogg will be serving for a further year. We would like to record our immense gratitude for the invaluable contribution that Dame Susan…

Our 2026 Forecast evaluation report evaluates successive forecasts for 2024-25. The ongoing impact of unexpected shocks – particularly the 2022 energy shock – explains a large portion of our 2024-25 forecast differences, offering lessons for forecasting the impact of energy price shocks such as the one we are currently experiencing. We also provide an initial…

We have now published our latest long-term assumptions, consistent with the forecast in our March 2026 Economic and fiscal outlook (EFO), below and on the March 2026 EFO page. These economic determinants that underpin our long-term fiscal projections are used by organisations inside and outside government to inform their own long-term modelling.

This morning’s ONS release revised down borrowing estimates for 2025-26 by £3 billion. Borrowing over 2025-26 is now estimated at £129 billion, which is £3.7 billion below our March forecast. Initial estimates for the month of April 2026 suggest that borrowing totalled £24.3 billion. This is £3.4 billion above the monthly profile consistent with our…