"It is the duty of the Office to examine and report on the sustainability of the public finances"
15 July 2025
We have published our response to the third external review which sets out how we are addressing the 11 recommendations made by Laura van Geest in her February 2025 review of the OBR. These recommendations span our independence, analytical infrastructure, and communications impact. We have already implemented the recommendations on independence and are progressing work…
8 July 2025
Richard Hughes distils the key messages from our latest Fiscal risks and sustainability report in his press conference presentation and accompanying speaking note. Watch back on YouTube here:
8 July 2025
Efforts to put the UK’s public finances on a sustainable footing after a series of global shocks have met with only limited and temporary success in recent years, leaving the UK with the sixth-highest debt, fifth-highest deficit, and third-highest borrowing costs among 36 advanced economies. Against this more vulnerable backdrop, the risks to the fiscal…
We have published our latest long-term assumptions, consistent with the forecast in our March 2025 Economic and fiscal outlook (EFO) and additional information on the number of award reviews that will be affected by tightening criteria in the March 2025 personal independence payment policy costing, below and on the March 2025 EFO page.
Our latest Forecast evaluation report (FER) will be published on Tuesday 1 July. Our FER examines how our forecasts compare to subsequent outturn data and identifies lessons for future forecasts. This report will focus on the performance of our March 2019, March 2022, and March 2023 Economic and fiscal outlook (EFO) for the fiscal year…
Since the publication of our March 2025 Economic and fiscal outlook (EFO) we have received a request for further detail on key fiscal aggregates for our trade scenarios. We have published this new supplementary forecast information below and on the March 2025 EFO page.
The Chancellor has today nominated Richard Hughes as Chair of the OBR for a second and final five-year term of office, subject to the approval of the Treasury Committee of the House of Commons. The OBR’s Chair, alongside other Budget Responsibility Committee (BRC) members, has executive responsibility for the OBR and is responsible for judgements…
We have published monthly profiles for receipts, spending and borrowing in 2025-26, consistent with our March 2025 Economic and fiscal outlook, below and alongside our monthly commentary on the public finances.
Our latest report on Fiscal risks and sustainability (FRS) will be published on Tuesday 8 July. It will be launched at a press conference in Liverpool. The 2025 FRS report will focus on three current pressures on the public finances and provide an update on the risk register: Climate change, where we will update our estimates of…
Since the publication of our October 2024 Economic and fiscal outlook (EFO) we have received a request for further information on our forecast for static costing of the changes to employer National Insurance contributions. We have published this new supplementary forecast information below and on the October 2024 EFO page.
Since the publication of our March 2025 Economic and fiscal outlook (EFO) we have received a request for further information on our forecast for changes in public sector net debt. We have published this new supplementary forecast information below and on the March 2025 EFO page.
This morning’s ONS release provides an initial estimate for 2024-25 public sector net borrowing of £151.9 billion. This is £20.7 billion above the previous year and £14.6 billion above our March forecast. As the ONS state, this initial estimate should be seen as provisional and is typically revised in future. However, the current difference with…
In this paper, we present a new overlapping generations model of the UK economy. It takes a detailed approach to real-world trends around demographics, life-cycle behaviour and differences within and between generations, all in a general equilibrium setting. Calibrated to match UK economic data and reflect key features of our tax, spending and welfare systems,…
Against a more challenging and uncertain outlook than in autumn, we have halved our forecast for economic growth this year from 2 to 1 per cent and lowered the forecast path for the level of productivity. Before accounting for policy, higher debt interest costs and other forecast changes left the current budget in deficit by…
Richard Hughes distils the key messages from our latest Economic and fiscal outlook in his press conference presentation and accompanying speaking note.
On 16 December 2024 the Chancellor commissioned us to publish our latest outlook for the economy and public finances on Wednesday 26 March. We have now agreed the timetable for the forecast process and published the detail below. Update on 12 March: Financial market assumptions and the incorporation of outturn data The final pre-measures fiscal…
We have released additional information on the methodology and assumptions underlying our migration analysis in our 2024 Fiscal risks and sustainability report (FRS). We have published this new supplementary forecast information below and on the September 2024 FRS page.
We have published an update to the Welsh taxes outlook with new forecasts for land transaction tax and landfill disposals tax receipts, alongside evaluations of our previous forecasts including for the Welsh rates of income tax. The report is available in English and Welsh. Welsh taxes outlook – December 2024 Rhagolwg trethi Cymreig – Rhagfyr…