Headline news

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Borrowing in April slightly above forecast

22 May 2024

Initial outturns for April 2024 suggest that borrowing was £1.2 billion (6.3 per cent) higher than our March forecast profile. This was driven by each of departmental expenditure on goods and services and spending on net social benefits coming in above forecast, and central government receipts coming in below forecast (by £0.8 billion in each…

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Supplementary forecast information release: Long-term economic determinants – March 2024

16 May 2024

We have published our latest long-term assumptions, consistent with the forecast in our March 2024 Economic and fiscal outlook (EFO), below and on the March 2024 EFO page. These economic determinants that underpin our long-term fiscal projections are used by organisations inside and outside government to inform their own long-term modelling.

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Monthly profiles for 2024-25

9 May 2024

We have published monthly profiles for receipts, spending and borrowing in 2024-25, consistent with our March 2024 Economic and fiscal outlook, below and alongside our monthly commentary on the public finances.

Other news

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Supplementary forecast information on fuel duty receipts by vehicle type

Since the publication of our March 2024 Economic and fiscal outlook (EFO) we have received a request for further information on our forecast of fuel duty receipts by vehicle type. We have published this new supplementary forecast information below and on the March 2024 EFO page.

Fiscal risks and sustainability 2024 due 2 July

Our latest report on Fiscal risks and sustainability (FRS) will be published on Tuesday 2 July. The 2024 FRS report will focus on three current pressures on the public finances: Climate change, where we will explore the potential economic and fiscal costs of damage from, and adaptation to, a changing climate in order to illustrate…

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Letters to John McDonnell MP and Sir Geoffrey Clifton-Brown MP

We have published two letters of correspondence on our website today. John McDonnell MP wrote to us on 7 March asking for clarification on the methodology used for the CGT changes announced at Budget and for an explanation of the different numbers presented in the OBR’s Economic and fiscal outlook and the Treasury’s Red Book….

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Welsh taxes outlook – February 2024

We have published an update to the Welsh taxes outlook (WTO) with new forecasts for land transaction tax and landfill disposals tax receipts, including evaluations of our previous forecasts including for the Welsh rates of income tax. The report is available in English and Welsh language. Welsh taxes outlook Rhagolwg trethi Cymreig

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Two new articles on the economic impacts of Autumn Statement 2023 policies

In our November 2023 Economic and fiscal outlook (EFO), we analysed the economic impacts of the Government’s cuts to NICs and allowing full expensing of some business investments. We have published two papers providing further detail on the modelling behind our analysis below and on the November 2023 EFO page.

Policy costings November 2023

November 2023 All policy costings presented to the Office for Budget Responsibility at Autumn Statement 2023 were scrutinised and were certified as reasonable, central estimates and were included in our forecasts. The Government’s Autumn Statement 2023 policy costings document briefly describes the methodologies underpinning these costings. In our November 2023 Economic and fiscal outlook we…

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March 2024 forecast timetable and details regarding the upcoming EFO

Forecast timetable On 27 December 2023 the Chancellor announced that the Spring Budget 2024 will be held on Wednesday 6 March and commissioned us to publish our latest outlook for the economy and public finances that day. We have now agreed the timetable for the forecast process and published the detail below. Update on 23…

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Supplementary forecast information on WCA reforms

Since the publication of our November 2023 Economic and fiscal outlook (EFO) we have received requests for information on our estimates of the number of individuals whose conditionality group will be different as a result of the work capability assessment (WCA) reforms. We have published this new supplementary forecast information below and on the November…

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Spring 2024 forecast date announced

The Chancellor has announced that the Spring Budget will take place on Wednesday 6 March 2024. Our latest outlook for the economy and public finances will be released on the same day. Economic and fiscal outlooks

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Supplementary forecast information on our deposit rate forecast

Since the publication of our November 2023 Economic and fiscal outlook (EFO) we have received requests for further information on our deposit rate forecast. We have published this new supplementary forecast information below and on the November 2023 EFO page.

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So far this year public sector borrowing remains higher than last year

The ONS release this morning shows borrowing in the first eight months of 2023-24 totalled £116.4 billion, £24.4 billion above the same period last year.  In the remainder of the year, we expect borrowing to rise more slowly than last year due primarily to stronger receipts.