Robert Chote distils the key messages from our latest Economic and fiscal outlook – published today – in his press conference presentation and accompanying speaking note.

March 2020 All policy costings presented to the Office for Budget Responsibility at Budget 2020 were scrutinised and were certified as reasonable, central estimates were included in our forecasts. The Government’s Budget 2020 policy costings document briefly describes the methodologies underpinning these costings. In our March 2020 Economic and fiscal outlook we have published an…

The Chancellor has announced the largest sustained fiscal loosening since Norman Lamont’s pre-election Budget in 1992. In the medium term, this takes real day-to-day spending per person back to pre-austerity levels. But the domestic effects of the coronavirus outbreak and the Government’s response to it came too late to include in our forecasts, which are…

In addition to its impact on public health, the coronavirus is likely to have a significant adverse effect on the economy and public finances in coming quarters. But neither the size nor the duration of this effect are possible to predict with any confidence. The Chief Medical Officer has declared that an epidemic in the…

The OBR is legally required to produce two forecasts in each financial year. Because of the cancellation of the November Budget, our Economic and fiscal outlook on 11 March will be our first forecast in 2019-20. We have written to the Chancellor setting out a number of options for the second forecast and he has…

On 25 February we published an update to the December 2019 Welsh taxes outlook to account for new data released this year. The report is available in English and Welsh language.

Very strong spending growth outweighed strong receipts growth this month, leaving the usual January surplus smaller than it was a year ago. But, over the first ten months of 2019-20, borrowing continues to rise relative to the same period year, albeit at a slower pace than is implied by our latest full-year forecast.  

Today the Treasury has launched the recruitment campaign to find Robert Chote’s successor as the next Chair of the OBR. Robert has led the independent fiscal watchdog since 3 October 2010, and is therefore approaching the end of his second and final five-year term. The chair and other members of the Budget Responsibility Committee (BRC) are…

Borrowing has risen so far this year, but at a slower rate than anticipated in our restated March forecast. With three months of the year to go, a number of uncertainties remain. January is a big month for receipts, while bonus season and end-year departmental spending are always sources of uncertainty.  

Borrowing has risen so far this year, but, following substantial revisions over the past two months, the year-to-date rise is now slower than the full-year rise in our restated March forecast. That said, with four months of the year to go, risks remain: January is a big month for receipts, while bonus season and end-year…

Our first post-referendum forecast – from November 2016 – has performed remarkably well for GDP growth in the period since mid-2016. But despite that we overestimated borrowing in 2018-19 – because the public finances at the time of the referendum were in better shape than the available data suggested. Read more about the Welfare trends report…

We have restated our March 2019 borrowing forecast to include recent ONS statistical changes but have not incorporated any other new data, new judgements nor include an update to the economy forecast. After incorporating these changes, borrowing has increased materially by around £20bn each year. We wrote to the Treasury on 29 October about our intention to publish…

Borrowing in the first half of 2019-20 was revised down by £5.2 billion, thanks to lower central government spending and lower local authority borrowing. But it rose by £2.3 billion on a year earlier in October alone. That leaves the year-to-date deficit up £4.3 billion on the same period last year – a 10 per…

Publication of our restated forecast will no longer go ahead today following advice from the Cabinet Secretary. As we notified the Treasury and Treasury Select Committee on 29 October, we had planned to publish a technical restatement of our March public finance forecast this morning, bringing it into line with current ONS statistical treatment –…

Mid-way through 2019-20, borrowing is up £7.2 billion on the same point last year, with strong growth in public spending outweighing more modest growth in receipts. Prospects for full-year borrowing will depend on the extent to which spending growth slows – as seems likely – and whether receipts growth is maintained – which depends in…