Other news

Response to Chair of the Work and Pensions Committee

Robert Chote has written to the Work and Pensions Select Committee in reply to a letter from the Chair. The Committee requested further information on the process of certification of Universal Credit policy costings and clarification of details of the savings associated with changing the assumed rollout profile of the policy.

Working paper No.8: Anti-avoidance costings: an evaluation

Working paper No. 8: Anti-avoidance costings: an evaluation, looks back at the costings of recently announced anti-avoidance measures to assess their performance against the original costing. It finds that whilst a large number of measures perform close to expectations, there are on average more under-performing measures than over-performing ones.

Supplementary forecast information release

Since the publication of our November 2015 Economic and fiscal outlook (EFO) we received a request to publish our estimate of the number of employees that will be paid the National Living Wage and the gender breakdown. We have published this new supplementary forecast information today, 22 January 2016, on the main EFO page on our website.

Chairman’s remarks to Scottish Finance Committee

Robert Chote gave evidence to the Scottish Parliament’s Finance Committee on 6 January. He noted that the improvement in the underlying fiscal forecast in November’s Autumn Statement was small by the standards of most recent autumn forecasts and could easily be reversed.

Temporary factors push borrowing up in November

November’s public sector net borrowing of £14.2 billion was up on a year earlier, largely reflecting the timing of various spending items and that the boost to receipts from last year’s bank fines was not repeated. We continue to expect year-on-year falls in the deficit to be bigger over the final months of 2015-16. Read…

Policy costings document November 2015

November 2015 All policy costings presented to the Office for Budget Responsibility at Spending Review and Autumn Statement 2015 were scrutinised and were certified as reasonable, central estimates were included in our forecasts. The Government’s Spending Review and Autumn Statement 2015 policy costings document briefly describes the methodologies underpinning these costings. In our November 2015 Economic and fiscal…

Economic and fiscal outlook – November 2015

Government eases public spending squeeze and reverses tax credit cuts, but stronger revenues and lower debt interest boost budget balance. Read the November 2015 Economic and fiscal outlook here.

Social housing decision increases public sector net debt

The Office for National Statistics has announced today that “private registered providers” of social housing in England will be reclassified from the private to the public sector in the National Accounts. This includes most housing associations and some for-profit housing bodies. As a result, the outstanding debt of these bodies will be included in the…

Forecast evaluation report 2015

This year’s Forecast evaluation report looks at the latest data for 2014-15 – five years on from our first forecast in June 2010. Lower-than-expected nominal GDP growth explains much of the error in our borrowing forecast from then, but receipts were weaker still. As a result, our borrowing forecast was £60 billion too optimistic, but…

Robert Chote reappointment confirmed

The Chancellor nominated Robert Chote to serve a second and final term as Chair of the OBR. The Treasury Select Committee approved the re-appointment on 15 September 2015, saying that they were “satisfied that Robert Chote has the professional competence and personal independence to be reappointed as Chair of the OBR. His work over the last…

Government recommends boost to OBR capacity

A Treasury review has concluded that the OBR is a “respected and successful” organisation five years after its creation. It recommends boosting the OBR’s current capacity and a new publication on fiscal risks, but rejects extending its remit to manifesto costings and distributional analysis. Read the HM Treasury Review of the OBR on GOV.UK The…

Economic and fiscal outlook July 2015

Our latest economic and fiscal forecast shows how the new Government has used its first Budget to loosen significantly the impending squeeze on public services spending that had been pencilled in by the Coalition in March. This is being financed by welfare cuts, net tax increases and three years of higher government borrowing. The Government has delayed…

Lord Burns re-appointment

The Chancellor of the Exchequer has announced that Lord Burns has been re-appointed as a non-executive member of the OBR. Read the HM Treasury press release here

Policy costings document July 2015

July 2015 All policy costings presented to the Office for Budget Responsibility at Summer Budget 2015 were scrutinised and all-but-one were certified as reasonable, central estimates. All were included in our forecasts. The Government’s Summer Budget 2015 document briefly describes the methodologies underpinning these costings. In our July 2015 Economic and fiscal outlook we have published an assessment on the level of uncertainty associated…