FRS 2022
Press briefing for our first Fiscal risks and sustainability
The slides and speaking notes from our FRS press briefing are now available to download.
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Debt interest and support for energy bills add to borrowing
The budget deficit continues to fall year on year, with April-to-July borrowing of £55.0 billion down £12.1 billion on last year. But it was £3.0 billion above our March forecast profile, largely reflecting higher spending. Sharp rises in inflation continue to raise debt interest costs by even more than our forecast assumed, while the cost-of-living payments to means-tested benefit recipients – announced in May, so not reflected in our March forecast – began last month.
News
24 May 2022
Welfare trends report – May 2022
26 April 2022
2021-22 budget deficit exceeds March 2022 forecast
22 February 2022
January tax receipts and debt interest far exceed forecasts
17 February 2022
Supplementary forecast information release
10 February 2022
Supplementary forecast information release
25 January 2022
Budget deficit falling sharply thanks to strong tax revenues
13 January 2022
Supplementary forecast information release
23 December 2021
Spring 2022 forecast date announced
21 December 2021
Budget deficit continues to fall sharply
16 December 2021
Prof David Miles CBE appointed to the Committee
9 December 2021
Forecast evaluation report – December 2021
9 December 2021
Monthly profiles and ready reckoners
19 November 2021
Budget deficit down over £100 billion so far in 2021-22
21 September 2021
Borrowing continues to undershoot forecast
20 August 2021
Borrowing continues to fall faster than expected
6 July 2021
Fiscal risks report 2021
5 July 2021
Annual report and accounts 2020-21
21 June 2021
Welsh taxes outlook – June 2021 update
1 April 2021
Supplementary forecast information release
24 March 2021
Bronwyn Curtis re-appointed
23 March 2021
Welfare trends report – March 2021
19 March 2021
Supplementary forecast information release
19 February 2021
Sharp rise in budget deficit is slower than expected
22 January 2021
Budget deficit continues to rise sharply
24 September 2020
OECD review hails OBR’s outputs and independence
Featured
FRS 2022
5 things you should know about our Fiscal risks and sustainability report
Richard Hughes, Chair of the OBR, explains the top 5 takeaways from our FRS report.
Database
Historical forecasts
Our historical official forecast database includes just over 100 variables from June 2010 forecast to the most recent March 2022 forecast. Generate charts and compare with outturns in our handy database.
Key publications
Medium-term forecasts
Five year forecasts for the UK economy and public finances and an assessment of whether the Government is likely to achieve its fiscal targets.
Fiscal risks and long-term projections
Annual report into the main fiscal risks facing the UK and sustainability of the public finances. This new report is an amalgamation of the FSR and FRR.
Forecast evaluation
Report into how our forecasts compare to subsequent outturn data and identifying lessons for future forecasts.
Welfare spending trends
An in-depth look at the drivers of welfare spending both inside and outside the Government’s welfare cap.
Monthly commentary
Our monthly commentary on the latest public finances data and how it compares to our most recent forecast.
Welsh taxes
We are commissioned by the Welsh Government to produce independent forecasts for devolved Welsh taxes. We formally took on this role in April 2019.