December 19, 2019
Our first post-referendum forecast – from November 2016 – has performed remarkably well for GDP growth in the period since mid-2016. But despite that we overestimated borrowing in 2018-19 – because the public finances at the time of the referendum were in better shape than the available data suggested.
Borrowing has risen so far this year, but, following substantial revisions over the past two months, the year-to-date rise is now slower than the full-year rise in our restated March forecast. That said, with four months of the year to go, risks remain: January is a big month for receipts, while bonus season and end-year departmental spending are always sources of uncertainty.
Our annual Welfare trends report examines the drivers of welfare spending. This time we focus in on the Summer Budget 2015 when the incoming Conservative Government announced cuts to welfare spending that were intended to save £12 billion in 2019-20.
We have restated our March 2019 borrowing forecast to include recent ONS statistical changes but have not incorporated any other new data, new judgements nor include an update to the economy forecast. After incorporating these changes, borrowing has increased materially by around £20bn each year.
We have just published our first Welsh taxes outlook which sets out our forecasts for each of the devolved Welsh taxes: Welsh rates of income tax, land transaction tax and landfill disposals tax.
September 9, 2019
The Chancellor used last week’s Spending Round to announce a significant increase in departmental spending in 2020-21. The OBR’s Budget Responsibility Committee gave evidence to the Treasury Select Committee today on the fiscal implications of the announcement. In addition, Robert Chote has written to the Interim Chair, John Mann, explaining our role during a spending round and how the announcement will be reflected in our next forecast for the public finances.
August 20, 2019
Since the publication of our March 2019 Economic and fiscal outlook we have received a request for further detail on the VAT standard rated share of consumer spending. We have published this new supplementary forecast information on the March 2019 EFO page.
July 18, 2019
Governments are there to manage society’s risks, but also risks to the public finances. Our second Fiscal risks report concludes that perennial issues of abrupt shocks, slower-building pressures and risks taken on by choice are largely as they were two years ago. But Brexit risks loom larger as ‘no deal’ is countenanced at the highest levels.
April 11, 2019
International and UK experts will undertake an independent review of the Office for Budget Responsibility this summer, assessing its performance and adherence to internationally agreed principles of best practice for independent fiscal institutions.
Under the legislation that created the OBR, the organisation is required to commission an external review every five years. The OBR’s non-executive members,
April 9, 2019
In accordance with the Welsh Government’s fiscal framework, we will prepare and publish independent forecasts of devolved Welsh tax revenues for the 2019-20 Welsh Government Budget onwards. We have agreed a Memorandum of Understanding, Terms of Reference and a Financial Framework to guide this work.
March 13, 2019
Robert Chote distils the key messages from our latest Economic and fiscal outlook – published today – in his press conference presentation and accompanying speaking note.
March 13, 2019
Economic growth in the UK and globally has slowed since the Budget in October, leading us to revise down our near-term GDP forecast. But tax receipts have performed better than we expected in the final months of 2018-19 and we judge that much of this buoyancy will endure. Together with downward pressure on debt interest spending from lower market interest rates,
October 11, 2018
Since the referendum we have incorporated Brexit into our forecasts using broad brush assumptions, but as Government policy decisions and developments begin to unfold, we look ahead to the issues we will need to consider when we refine these judgements. In our new paper, we begin to consider how our forecasts might change in this Brexit environment.
November 16, 2016
The depth and breadth of the economic and fiscal analysis published by the OBR “can be considered as best-practice, and could be used as a benchmark by other advanced countries”, according to the International Monetary Fund’s Fiscal Transparency Evaluation for the UK. “While it is still relatively early in its track record, the OBR’s forecasting record indicates a lower degree of bias than under the Treasury forecasting regime.”