December 4, 2018
How have our forecasts fared since the referendum? The economy has slowed much as we predicted, but there were surprises in the timing and composition of the slowdown. Meanwhile the public finances have done better than expected, but for reasons that have little to do with our judgements regarding the impact of the vote.
Higher spending growth in October pushed the deficit up relative to last October. But strong receipts growth means borrowing in the first seven months of 2018-19 is still down almost 30 per cent relative to the same period in 2017-18.
Download our database of historical OBR forecasts in more than 100 variables
Charts and tables:
Chapters 1, 2, 3
Chapters 4, 5, Annex A
Supplementary tables:
We have incorporated the Chancellor’s policies into our forecasts, but have not certified all costings as reasonable and central.
Read more in Annex A of the Economic and fiscal outlook
November 20, 2018
Since the publication of our October 2018 Economic and fiscal outlook we have received requests for further detail on the marriage tax allowance and entrepreneurial reliefs. We have published this new supplementary forecast information on the October 2018 EFO page.
October 29, 2018
At first glance the outlook for the public finances in the medium term looks much the same as it did in March. But this masks a significant improvement in the underlying pace of deficit reduction, that on its own would have put the Government on course to achieve its objective of a balanced budget for the first time.
October 11, 2018
Since the referendum we have incorporated Brexit into our forecasts using broad brush assumptions, but as Government policy decisions and developments begin to unfold, we look ahead to the issues we will need to consider when we refine these judgements. In our new paper, we begin to consider how our forecasts might change in this Brexit environment.
September 28, 2018
The latest in our series of Working Papers were published on 28 September 2018.
Working paper No.13: In-year fiscal forecasting and monitoring presents our approach to in-year forecasting and monitoring of the public finances, and discusses how we assess our forecasts against the published data.
July 17, 2018
Robert Chote distils the key messages from our latest Fiscal sustainability report – published today – in his press conference presentation and accompanying speaking note.
July 17, 2018
Our latest long-term projections again show that the ageing population and healthcare cost pressures threaten the sustainability of the public finances. The outlook is worse than last year, thanks largely to the Government’s as-yet unfunded announcement of extra health spending last month.
July 11, 2018
The Treasury Select Committee has approved the appointment of Andy King, currently OBR Chief of Staff, to join the Budget Responsibility Committee.
June 8, 2018
The Chancellor of the Exchequer has nominated Andy King to join the OBR’s Budget Responsibility Committee (BRC) and Bronwyn Curtis OBE to join the OBR’s oversight board as a non-executive member.
April 25, 2018
At the request of the Treasury Committee, the OBR has confirmed that it should be able to incorporate an October EU exit agreement in an early December Budget forecast, updating its existing Brexit assumptions as necessary. But it is not clear how firm or detailed the agreement will be and important policy questions are bound to remain unanswered.
January 25, 2018
The introduction of Universal Credit is forecast to reduce welfare spending by about £1bn a year by 2022-23. But the fiscal impact is much more uncertain than that suggests, according to our latest Welfare trends report.
November 16, 2016
The depth and breadth of the economic and fiscal analysis published by the OBR “can be considered as best-practice, and could be used as a benchmark by other advanced countries”, according to the International Monetary Fund’s Fiscal Transparency Evaluation for the UK. “While it is still relatively early in its track record, the OBR’s forecasting record indicates a lower degree of bias than under the Treasury forecasting regime.”