Falling budget deficit continues to undershoot forecast

Government borrowing in May 2021 was £24.3 billion, down over 40 per cent from last year. And year-to-date borrowing of £53.4 billion is £14.1 billion below our March forecast profile. More than a third of that reflects differences in the timing of EU divorce bill payments. But lower spending and moderately stronger receipts growth mean that two months into 2021-22, the underlying outperformance of borrowing relative to forecast is £8.6 billion.

Commentary chart of borrowing

Upcoming events

Fiscal risks report 2021 is due to be published on 6 July and will focus on three major risks to the public finances.


Key publications

Medium-term forecasts

Five year forecasts for the UK economy and public finances and an assessment of whether the Government is likely to achieve its fiscal targets.

Long-term projections

50 year ahead projections for the UK public finances and public sector balance sheet analysis. Also the recent vehicle for our Coronavirus scenarios.

Forecast evaluation

Report into how our forecasts compare to subsequent outturn data and identifying lessons for future forecasts.

Welfare spending trends

An in-depth look at the drivers of welfare spending both inside and outside the Government’s welfare cap.

Fiscal risks

A report published every two years on the main risks to the public finances.

Monthly commentary

Our monthly commentary on the latest public finances data and how it compares to our most recent forecast.