Fiscal risks report
Fiscal risks report: Risk register
Delve into the detail of all 87 risks presented in Chapter 5 of the July 2021 Fiscal risks report
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Borrowing continues to undershoot forecast
Government borrowing in August 2021 was £20.5 billion, down £5.5 billion from the same month last year. Year to date borrowing of £93.8 billion is now £31.9 billion below our March forecast profile. That reflects both stronger than expected receipts (thanks largely to a faster than expected economic recovery) and lower than expected spending (due to the faster than expected unwinding of pandemic-related government support).
News
20 August 2021
Borrowing continues to fall faster than expected
29 July 2021
Economic and fiscal outlook date announced
6 July 2021
Fiscal risks report 2021
5 July 2021
Annual report and accounts 2020-21
21 June 2021
Welsh taxes outlook – June 2021 update
1 April 2021
Supplementary forecast information release
24 March 2021
Bronwyn Curtis re-appointed
23 March 2021
Welfare trends report – March 2021
19 March 2021
Supplementary forecast information release
19 February 2021
Sharp rise in budget deficit is slower than expected
22 January 2021
Budget deficit continues to rise sharply
22 January 2021
Forecast evaluation report 2021
22 December 2020
Budget deficit continues to rise very sharply
21 December 2020
Monthly profiling update published 22 December
25 November 2020
Coronavirus pushes the budget deficit to almost £400 billion
21 October 2020
Budget deficit tops £200 billion in six months
25 September 2020
Budget deficit reaches £174 billion in just five months
24 September 2020
Society of Professional Economists webinar
24 September 2020
OECD review hails OBR’s outputs and independence
14 July 2020
Budget deficit to hit a peacetime record
14 May 2020
OBR celebrates its 10th anniversary
23 April 2020
Evolution of receipts over the past decade
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Explainer
Brief guide to the public finances
Read a brief introduction to the UK public finances and terms used to describe them in the official statistics.
Database
Historical forecasts
Our historical official forecast database includes just over 100 variables from June 2010 forecast to the most recent March 2021 forecast. Generate charts and compare with outturns in our handy database.
Key publications
Medium-term forecasts
Five year forecasts for the UK economy and public finances and an assessment of whether the Government is likely to achieve its fiscal targets.
Long-term projections
50 year ahead projections for the UK public finances and public sector balance sheet analysis. Also the recent vehicle for our Coronavirus scenarios.
Forecast evaluation
Report into how our forecasts compare to subsequent outturn data and identifying lessons for future forecasts.
Welfare spending trends
An in-depth look at the drivers of welfare spending both inside and outside the Government’s welfare cap.
Fiscal risks
A report published every two years on the main risks to the public finances.
Monthly commentary
Our monthly commentary on the latest public finances data and how it compares to our most recent forecast.