March 21, 2019
Broad-based growth in tax receipts and lower debt interest spending continued to push the deficit down relative to last year in February. With only one month of 2018-19 to go, borrowing is down almost half relative to the same period in 2017-18 – broadly in line with our recent forecast.
Charts and tables:
Chapters 1, 2, 3
Chapters 4, 5, Annex A
Supplementary tables:
Our new explainer, published alongside the March 2019 forecasts, asks how unconventional monetary policy measures have been directly accounted for in the public finances.
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Since 2016, we have been writing analysis on Brexit and its possible impact on the economy and public finances. Assumptions and analysis can be found on our dedicated Brexit page.
March 13, 2019
Robert Chote distils the key messages from our latest Economic and fiscal outlook – published today – in his press conference presentation and accompanying speaking note.
March 13, 2019
March 13, 2019
Stronger income tax receipts and lower debt interest payments have delivered the Chancellor a modest fiscal windfall. His higher public spending plans offset only a little of that, with most banked to provide greater headroom against his structural borrowing target in 2020-21. But he is still not yet on course to balance the budget by 2025-26.
March 13, 2019
Economic growth in the UK and globally has slowed since the Budget in October, leading us to revise down our near-term GDP forecast. But tax receipts have performed better than we expected in the final months of 2018-19 and we judge that much of this buoyancy will endure. Together with downward pressure on debt interest spending from lower market interest rates,
January 15, 2019
One of the main functions of the welfare system is to support people having difficulty supporting themselves due to ill health or disability. This role stretches back more than a century – at least as far as the National Insurance Act of 1911. The financial support provided by today’s welfare system can be split into those benefits that cushion the incomes of people unable to work for health reasons – principally employment and support allowance (ESA) and,
October 11, 2018
Since the referendum we have incorporated Brexit into our forecasts using broad brush assumptions, but as Government policy decisions and developments begin to unfold, we look ahead to the issues we will need to consider when we refine these judgements. In our new paper, we begin to consider how our forecasts might change in this Brexit environment.
September 28, 2018
The latest in our series of Working Papers were published on 28 September 2018.
Working paper No.13: In-year fiscal forecasting and monitoring presents our approach to in-year forecasting and monitoring of the public finances, and discusses how we assess our forecasts against the published data.
July 17, 2018
Robert Chote distils the key messages from our latest Fiscal sustainability report – published today – in his press conference presentation and accompanying speaking note.
November 16, 2016
The depth and breadth of the economic and fiscal analysis published by the OBR “can be considered as best-practice, and could be used as a benchmark by other advanced countries”, according to the International Monetary Fund’s Fiscal Transparency Evaluation for the UK. “While it is still relatively early in its track record, the OBR’s forecasting record indicates a lower degree of bias than under the Treasury forecasting regime.”