Government support tempers recession before consolidation stabilises public debt

Over £100 billion of additional fiscal support over the next two years cushions the blow of higher energy prices – but the economy still falls into recession and living standards fall 7 per cent over two years, wiping out eight years’ growth. Over the medium term, around £40 billion in tax rises and spending cuts – in roughly equal measure – offsets higher debt interest and welfare costs and gets debt falling as a share of GDP. But at 99 per cent of GDP at the forecast horizon, debt is roughly £400 billion higher than forecast in March and interest costs close to historic highs.

November 2022 Economic and fiscal outlook press briefing

Download Richard Hughes’ presentation slides and speaking notes on the November 2022 Economic and fiscal outlook or watch again on YouTube.


Key publications

Medium-term forecasts

Five year forecasts for the UK economy and public finances and an assessment of whether the Government is likely to achieve its fiscal targets.

Fiscal risks and long-term projections

Annual report into the main fiscal risks facing the UK and sustainability of the public finances. This new report is an amalgamation of the FSR and FRR.

Forecast evaluation

Report into how our forecasts compare to subsequent outturn data and identifying lessons for future forecasts.

Welfare spending trends

An in-depth look at the drivers of welfare spending both inside and outside the Government’s welfare cap.

Monthly commentary

Our monthly commentary on the latest public finances data and how it compares to our most recent forecast.

Welsh taxes

We are commissioned by the Welsh Government to produce independent forecasts for devolved Welsh taxes. We formally took on this role in April 2019.