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2021-22 budget deficit exceeds March 2022 forecast

The initial full-year estimate of government borrowing in 2021-22 is £151.8 billion, less than half the 2020-21 figure but £24.0 billion above our March forecast (and £16.7 billion above it on a like-for-like basis). This surprise relative to forecast is largely due to higher-than-expected central government spending, which outweighed stronger-than-expected receipts. The like-for-like surprise could narrow as accrued spending figures are revised over the next six months. That said, central government cash borrowing also exceeded our forecast by £20.0 billion.

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We have published updated monthly profiles for the public finances in 2022-23 consistent with our March 2022 forecast on our monthly commentary page.

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