May 22, 2020
April’s public finances data provide an initial taste of the fiscal hit from the coronavirus lockdown and Government support for individuals and businesses. Tax payments received by HMRC were down 42 per cent on the same month last year, while central government spending jumped 52 per cent. As a result, the budget deficit was the largest in any single month and greater than our Budget forecast for the full year.
We have published a new paper studying the evolution of tax revenues and other sources of government income between 2007-08 and 2018-19 – respectively the last full year before the financial crisis and the last full year before the coronavirus crisis.
Some initial effects of the unfolding coronavirus shock to the public finances are visible in the March cash data. Receipts fell sharply – particularly VAT, where payments have been deferred. Spending increased, in part due to the cost of business support measures. These effects have yet to feed through to the headline accruals measure of the budget deficit or to central government cash borrowing, which was temporarily cushioned by other factors.
In March 2019, we looked at the direct effect of unconventional monetary policy on the public finances over the last decade.
March 11, 2020
Robert Chote distils the key messages from our latest Economic and fiscal outlook – published today – in his press conference presentation and accompanying speaking note.
March 11, 2020
The Chancellor has announced the largest sustained fiscal loosening since Norman Lamont’s pre-election Budget in 1992. In the medium term, this takes real day-to-day spending per person back to pre-austerity levels. But the domestic effects of the coronavirus outbreak and the Government’s response to it came too late to include in our forecasts, which are therefore no longer central.
March 11, 2020
In addition to its impact on public health, the coronavirus is likely to have a significant adverse effect on the economy and public finances in coming quarters. But neither the size nor the duration of this effect are possible to predict with any confidence. The Chief Medical Officer has declared that an epidemic in the UK is now “likely”,
February 27, 2020
The OBR is legally required to produce two forecasts in each financial year. Because of the cancellation of the November Budget, our Economic and fiscal outlook on 11 March will be our first forecast in 2019-20. We have written to the Chancellor setting out a number of options for the second forecast and he has decided to commission a supplementary update of the Budget forecast on March 13.
February 25, 2020
On 25 February we published an update to the December 2019 Welsh taxes outlook to account for new data released this year. The report is available in English and Welsh language.
January 23, 2020
Today the Treasury has launched the recruitment campaign to find Robert Chote’s successor as the next Chair of the OBR.
Robert has led the independent fiscal watchdog since 3 October 2010, and is therefore approaching the end of his second and final five-year term.
The chair and other members of the Budget Responsibility Committee (BRC) are appointed by the Chancellor of the Exchequer.
December 19, 2019
Our first post-referendum forecast – from November 2016 – has performed remarkably well for GDP growth in the period since mid-2016. But despite that we overestimated borrowing in 2018-19 – because the public finances at the time of the referendum were in better shape than the available data suggested.
Read more about the Welfare trends report and Forecast evaluation report.
December 16, 2019
We have restated our March 2019 borrowing forecast to include recent ONS statistical changes but have not incorporated any other new data, new judgements nor include an update to the economy forecast. After incorporating these changes, borrowing has increased materially by around £20bn each year.
September 9, 2019
The Chancellor used last week’s Spending Round to announce a significant increase in departmental spending in 2020-21. The OBR’s Budget Responsibility Committee gave evidence to the Treasury Select Committee today on the fiscal implications of the announcement. In addition, Robert Chote has written to the Interim Chair, John Mann, explaining our role during a spending round and how the announcement will be reflected in our next forecast for the public finances.
August 20, 2019
Since the publication of our March 2019 Economic and fiscal outlook we have received a request for further detail on the VAT standard rated share of consumer spending. We have published this new supplementary forecast information on the March 2019 EFO page.
July 18, 2019
Governments are there to manage society’s risks, but also risks to the public finances. Our second Fiscal risks report concludes that perennial issues of abrupt shocks, slower-building pressures and risks taken on by choice are largely as they were two years ago. But Brexit risks loom larger as ‘no deal’ is countenanced at the highest levels.
April 11, 2019
International and UK experts will undertake an independent review of the Office for Budget Responsibility this summer, assessing its performance and adherence to internationally agreed principles of best practice for independent fiscal institutions.
Under the legislation that created the OBR, the organisation is required to commission an external review every five years. The OBR’s non-executive members,
October 11, 2018
Since the referendum we have incorporated Brexit into our forecasts using broad brush assumptions, but as Government policy decisions and developments begin to unfold, we look ahead to the issues we will need to consider when we refine these judgements. In our new paper, we begin to consider how our forecasts might change in this Brexit environment.
November 16, 2016
The depth and breadth of the economic and fiscal analysis published by the OBR “can be considered as best-practice, and could be used as a benchmark by other advanced countries”, according to the International Monetary Fund’s Fiscal Transparency Evaluation for the UK. “While it is still relatively early in its track record, the OBR’s forecasting record indicates a lower degree of bias than under the Treasury forecasting regime.”
