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Year-to-date deficit on track, but policy costs set to mount

Borrowing in the first five months of 2022-23 was just £0.2 billion above our March forecast profile, with higher debt interest payments (£9.0 billion above profile) offset by downside surprises elsewhere. But energy bill support measures have yet to have a material effect on the public finances. The May package has so far added £2.4 billion to spending, with costs rising from October. This month’s much larger measures, including the energy price guarantee, will raise borrowing significantly through the second half of 2022-23. Various ONS revisions have materially lowered previous estimates of borrowing in 2021-22 and for the year to date.

Line chart showing cumulative public sector net borrowing

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