Database
Historical forecasts
See how our latest economy and fiscal forecasts compares to all our previous forecasts.
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Chancellor spends £27 billion windfall on personal and business tax cuts
The economy has proved more resilient to the shocks of the pandemic and energy crisis than we anticipated. But inflation has also been more persistent and interest rates higher than in March. Higher inflation boosts tax revenues but also welfare benefits while higher interest rates push up debt servicing. But because departmental spending is left largely unchanged, this delivers a net fiscal windfall of £27 billion. The Chancellor spends virtually all of this on a 2p cut in NICs, permanent tax relief for business investment, and further welfare reforms, leaving debt falling by a narrow margin in five years.
News
20 October 2023
Year-to-date borrowing moves further below our forecast
21 September 2023
November 2023 forecast timetable
21 September 2023
Strong receipts keep borrowing below profile
7 September 2023
Tom Josephs appointed to the Committee
5 September 2023
Autumn 2023 forecast date announced
22 August 2023
Year-to-date borrowing remains below profile
10 August 2023
Working paper 19: The OBR’s forecast performance
7 August 2023
An update on the OBR’s external engagement
18 May 2023
Monthly profiles for 2023-24
2 March 2023
Economic and fiscal outlook: user survey results
Articles
Dynamic scoring of policy measures in OBR forecasts
Staff of the OBR | 9 November 2023
In this article, we set out how the OBR’s economic and fiscal forecasts capture the dynamic effects of policies on the economic behaviour of people and businesses.
The OBR ready reckoner
Balint Benke and João Sousa | 12 October 2023
Our new ready reckoner allows users to obtain quick, indicative estimates of how changes in the economy affect public finances.
300 years of UK public finance data
Luke Lanskey and Conor O’Loughnan | 20 July 2023
Our new historical public finances database contains 300 years of tax, spending, borrowing and debt data. This article tells the story of government borrowing and debt since 1700 and how the level and composition of tax and spending have evolved over this period.
Featured
November 2023
5 things you should know about our forecast
Richard Hughes, Chair of the OBR, explains the top 5 takeaways from our report.
November 2023
Want a quick summary?
Read the executive summary of the November 2023 Economic and fiscal outlook
Key publications
Medium-term forecasts
Five year forecasts for the UK economy and public finances and an assessment of whether the Government is likely to achieve its fiscal targets.
Fiscal risks and long-term projections
Annual report into the main fiscal risks facing the UK and sustainability of the public finances. This new report is an amalgamation of the FSR and FRR.
Forecast evaluation
Report into how our forecasts compare to subsequent outturn data and identifying lessons for future forecasts.
Welfare spending trends
An in-depth look at the drivers of welfare spending both inside and outside the Government’s welfare cap.
Monthly commentary
Our monthly commentary on the latest public finances data and how it compares to our most recent forecast.
Welsh taxes
We are commissioned by the Welsh Government to produce independent forecasts for devolved Welsh taxes. We formally took on this role in April 2019.