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Budget deficit falling sharply thanks to strong tax revenues

Government borrowing in December 2021 was £16.8 billion, down £7.6 billion on December 2020. Year to date borrowing of £146.8 billion is down 46.8 per cent on the same period last year and is £13.0 billion below our October forecast profile. That undershoot reflects stronger than expected receipts (thanks largely to a more resilient labour market and strong business profits) more than offsetting higher than expected spending.

Cumulative borrowing chart

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Five year forecasts for the UK economy and public finances and an assessment of whether the Government is likely to achieve its fiscal targets.

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50 year ahead projections for the UK public finances and public sector balance sheet analysis. Also the recent vehicle for our Coronavirus scenarios.

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Report into how our forecasts compare to subsequent outturn data and identifying lessons for future forecasts.

Welfare spending trends

An in-depth look at the drivers of welfare spending both inside and outside the Government’s welfare cap.

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Our monthly commentary on the latest public finances data and how it compares to our most recent forecast.