Year-to-date deficit on track, but policy costs set to mount

Borrowing in the first five months of 2022-23 was just £0.2 billion above our March forecast profile, with higher debt interest payments (£9.0 billion above profile) offset by downside surprises elsewhere. But energy bill support measures have yet to have a material effect on the public finances. The May package has so far added £2.4 billion to spending, with costs rising from October. This month’s much larger measures, including the energy price guarantee, will raise borrowing significantly through the second half of 2022-23. Various ONS revisions have materially lowered previous estimates of borrowing in 2021-22 and for the year to date.

Line chart showing cumulative public sector net borrowing


Key publications

Medium-term forecasts

Five year forecasts for the UK economy and public finances and an assessment of whether the Government is likely to achieve its fiscal targets.

Fiscal risks and long-term projections

Annual report into the main fiscal risks facing the UK and sustainability of the public finances. This new report is an amalgamation of the FSR and FRR.

Forecast evaluation

Report into how our forecasts compare to subsequent outturn data and identifying lessons for future forecasts.

Welfare spending trends

An in-depth look at the drivers of welfare spending both inside and outside the Government’s welfare cap.

Monthly commentary

Our monthly commentary on the latest public finances data and how it compares to our most recent forecast.

Welsh taxes

We are commissioned by the Welsh Government to produce independent forecasts for devolved Welsh taxes. We formally took on this role in April 2019.