Debt interest and support for energy bills add to borrowing

The budget deficit continues to fall year on year, with April-to-July borrowing of £55.0 billion down £12.1 billion on last year. But it was £3.0 billion above our March forecast profile, largely reflecting higher spending. Sharp rises in inflation continue to raise debt interest costs by even more than our forecast assumed, while the cost-of-living payments to means-tested benefit recipients – announced in May, so not reflected in our March forecast – began last month.

Line chart showing cumulative public sector net borrowing


Key publications

Medium-term forecasts

Five year forecasts for the UK economy and public finances and an assessment of whether the Government is likely to achieve its fiscal targets.

Fiscal risks and long-term projections

Annual report into the main fiscal risks facing the UK and sustainability of the public finances. This new report is an amalgamation of the FSR and FRR.

Forecast evaluation

Report into how our forecasts compare to subsequent outturn data and identifying lessons for future forecasts.

Welfare spending trends

An in-depth look at the drivers of welfare spending both inside and outside the Government’s welfare cap.

Monthly commentary

Our monthly commentary on the latest public finances data and how it compares to our most recent forecast.

Welsh taxes

We are commissioned by the Welsh Government to produce independent forecasts for devolved Welsh taxes. We formally took on this role in April 2019.