Higher inflation delivers record debt interest spending

The budget deficit continues to fall year on year, with April-to-June borrowing of £55.4 billion down £5.7 billion on last year. But it was £3.7 billion above our most recent forecast profile, largely reflecting higher spending, alongside modestly lower receipts. Debt interest spending hit a record high – for both the single month of June (£19.4 billion) and for the year to date (£33.7 billion). Much of this is accrued debt interest on index-linked gilts, which will be paid out in cash terms over several decades as these gilts are redeemed.

Line chart showing cumulative public sector net borrowing


Key publications

Medium-term forecasts

Five year forecasts for the UK economy and public finances and an assessment of whether the Government is likely to achieve its fiscal targets.

Fiscal risks and long-term projections

Annual report into the main fiscal risks facing the UK and sustainability of the public finances. This new report is an amalgamation of the FSR and FRR.

Forecast evaluation

Report into how our forecasts compare to subsequent outturn data and identifying lessons for future forecasts.

Welfare spending trends

An in-depth look at the drivers of welfare spending both inside and outside the Government’s welfare cap.

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Our monthly commentary on the latest public finances data and how it compares to our most recent forecast.

Welsh taxes

We are commissioned by the Welsh Government to produce independent forecasts for devolved Welsh taxes. We formally took on this role in April 2019.