FRS 2022
Press briefing for our first Fiscal risks and sustainability
The slides and speaking notes from our FRS press briefing are now available to download.
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Year-to-date deficit on track, but policy costs set to mount
Borrowing in the first five months of 2022-23 was just £0.2 billion above our March forecast profile, with higher debt interest payments (£9.0 billion above profile) offset by downside surprises elsewhere. But energy bill support measures have yet to have a material effect on the public finances. The May package has so far added £2.4 billion to spending, with costs rising from October. This month’s much larger measures, including the energy price guarantee, will raise borrowing significantly through the second half of 2022-23. Various ONS revisions have materially lowered previous estimates of borrowing in 2021-22 and for the year to date.
News
30 September 2022
OBR meeting with the Prime Minister and Chancellor
29 September 2022
Exchange of letters between Mel Stride MP and Richard Hughes
29 September 2022
Next steps in the November 2022 forecast
29 September 2022
Exchange of letters between Ian Blackford MP and Richard Hughes
26 September 2022
November 2022 forecast date announced
8 September 2022
Supplementary forecast information release
24 May 2022
Welfare trends report – May 2022
17 February 2022
Supplementary forecast information release
10 February 2022
Supplementary forecast information release
13 January 2022
Supplementary forecast information release
16 December 2021
Prof David Miles CBE appointed to the Committee
9 December 2021
Forecast evaluation report – December 2021
Featured
FRS 2022
5 things you should know about our Fiscal risks and sustainability report
Richard Hughes, Chair of the OBR, explains the top 5 takeaways from our FRS report.
Database
Historical forecasts
Our historical official forecast database includes just over 100 variables from June 2010 forecast to the most recent March 2022 forecast. Generate charts and compare with outturns in our handy database.
Key publications
Medium-term forecasts
Five year forecasts for the UK economy and public finances and an assessment of whether the Government is likely to achieve its fiscal targets.
Fiscal risks and long-term projections
Annual report into the main fiscal risks facing the UK and sustainability of the public finances. This new report is an amalgamation of the FSR and FRR.
Forecast evaluation
Report into how our forecasts compare to subsequent outturn data and identifying lessons for future forecasts.
Welfare spending trends
An in-depth look at the drivers of welfare spending both inside and outside the Government’s welfare cap.
Monthly commentary
Our monthly commentary on the latest public finances data and how it compares to our most recent forecast.
Welsh taxes
We are commissioned by the Welsh Government to produce independent forecasts for devolved Welsh taxes. We formally took on this role in April 2019.