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March 11, 2020
Robert Chote distils the key messages from our latest Economic and fiscal outlook – published today – in his press conference presentation and accompanying speaking note.
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March 11, 2020
In addition to its impact on public health, the coronavirus is likely to have a significant adverse effect on the economy and public finances in coming quarters. But neither the size nor the duration of this effect are possible to predict with any confidence. The Chief Medical Officer has declared that an epidemic in the UK is now “likely”,
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February 27, 2020
The OBR is legally required to produce two forecasts in each financial year. Because of the cancellation of the November Budget, our Economic and fiscal outlook on 11 March will be our first forecast in 2019-20. We have written to the Chancellor setting out a number of options for the second forecast and he has decided to commission a supplementary update of the Budget forecast on March 13.
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February 25, 2020
On 25 February we published an update to the December 2019 Welsh taxes outlook to account for new data released this year. The report is available in English and Welsh language.
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February 21, 2020
Very strong spending growth outweighed strong receipts growth this month, leaving the usual January surplus smaller than it was a year ago. But, over the first ten months of 2019-20, borrowing continues to rise relative to the same period year, albeit at a slower pace than is implied by our latest full-year forecast.
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January 23, 2020
Today the Treasury has launched the recruitment campaign to find Robert Chote’s successor as the next Chair of the OBR.
Robert has led the independent fiscal watchdog since 3 October 2010, and is therefore approaching the end of his second and final five-year term.
The chair and other members of the Budget Responsibility Committee (BRC) are appointed by the Chancellor of the Exchequer.
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December 19, 2019
Our first post-referendum forecast – from November 2016 – has performed remarkably well for GDP growth in the period since mid-2016. But despite that we overestimated borrowing in 2018-19 – because the public finances at the time of the referendum were in better shape than the available data suggested.
Read more about the Welfare trends report and Forecast evaluation report.
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December 16, 2019
We have restated our March 2019 borrowing forecast to include recent ONS statistical changes but have not incorporated any other new data, new judgements nor include an update to the economy forecast. After incorporating these changes, borrowing has increased materially by around £20bn each year.
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September 9, 2019
The Chancellor used last week’s Spending Round to announce a significant increase in departmental spending in 2020-21. The OBR’s Budget Responsibility Committee gave evidence to the Treasury Select Committee today on the fiscal implications of the announcement. In addition, Robert Chote has written to the Interim Chair, John Mann, explaining our role during a spending round and how the announcement will be reflected in our next forecast for the public finances.
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August 20, 2019
Since the publication of our March 2019 Economic and fiscal outlook we have received a request for further detail on the VAT standard rated share of consumer spending. We have published this new supplementary forecast information on the March 2019 EFO page.
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July 18, 2019
Governments are there to manage society’s risks, but also risks to the public finances. Our second Fiscal risks report concludes that perennial issues of abrupt shocks, slower-building pressures and risks taken on by choice are largely as they were two years ago. But Brexit risks loom larger as ‘no deal’ is countenanced at the highest levels.
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April 11, 2019
International and UK experts will undertake an independent review of the Office for Budget Responsibility this summer, assessing its performance and adherence to internationally agreed principles of best practice for independent fiscal institutions.
Under the legislation that created the OBR, the organisation is required to commission an external review every five years. The OBR’s non-executive members,
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October 11, 2018
Since the referendum we have incorporated Brexit into our forecasts using broad brush assumptions, but as Government policy decisions and developments begin to unfold, we look ahead to the issues we will need to consider when we refine these judgements. In our new paper, we begin to consider how our forecasts might change in this Brexit environment.
The public sector recorded a modest budget deficit in February, a £0.3 billion improvement on last year, largely reflecting timing effects that depressed public spending. But the data have yet to reflect the spread of the coronavirus in any significant way. In coming months the resulting disruption of economic activity and the policy measures taken by the Government and the Bank of England will increase public sector borrowing and debt significantly.