September 9, 2019

Letter to Treasury Select Committee on Spending Round 2019 and our next forecast

The Chancellor used last week’s Spending Round to announce a significant increase in departmental spending in 2020-21. The OBR’s Budget Responsibility Committee gave evidence to the Treasury Select Committee today on the fiscal implications of the announcement. In addition, Robert Chote has written to the Interim Chair, John Mann, explaining our role during a spending round and how the announcement will be reflected in our next forecast for the public finances.

August 20, 2019

Supplementary forecast information release

Since the publication of our March 2019 Economic and fiscal outlook we have received a request for further detail on the VAT standard rated share of consumer spending. We have published this new supplementary forecast information on the March 2019 EFO page.

July 18, 2019

OBR assesses fiscal risks: what might hit the public finances over the next five or 50 years?

Governments are there to manage society’s risks, but also risks to the public finances. Our second Fiscal risks report concludes that perennial issues of abrupt shocks, slower-building pressures and risks taken on by choice are largely as they were two years ago. But Brexit risks loom larger as ‘no deal’ is countenanced at the highest levels.

April 11, 2019

OECD commissioned to lead second external review of the OBR

International and UK experts will undertake an independent review of the Office for Budget Responsibility this summer, assessing its performance and adherence to internationally agreed principles of best practice for independent fiscal institutions.

Under the legislation that created the OBR, the organisation is required to commission an external review every five years. The OBR’s non-executive members,

April 9, 2019

OBR to produce independent forecasts of devolved Welsh tax revenues

In accordance with the Welsh Government’s fiscal framework, we will prepare and publish independent forecasts of devolved Welsh tax revenues for the 2019-20 Welsh Government Budget onwards. We have agreed a Memorandum of Understanding, Terms of Reference and a Financial Framework to guide this work.

March 13, 2019

The Chairman’s presentation on our latest economic and fiscal forecast

Robert Chote distils the key messages from our latest Economic and fiscal outlook – published today – in his press conference presentation and accompanying speaking note.

March 13, 2019

Supplementary forecast information release: Long-term economic determinants – March 2019

March 13, 2019

Chancellor banks most of modest fiscal windfall

Stronger income tax receipts and lower debt interest payments have delivered the Chancellor a modest fiscal windfall. His higher public spending plans offset only a little of that, with most banked to provide greater headroom against his structural borrowing target in 2020-21. But he is still not yet on course to balance the budget by 2025-26.

March 13, 2019

Overview of the March 2019 Economic and fiscal outlook

Economic growth in the UK and globally has slowed since the Budget in October, leading us to revise down our near-term GDP forecast. But tax receipts have performed better than we expected in the final months of 2018-19 and we judge that much of this buoyancy will endure. Together with downward pressure on debt interest spending from lower market interest rates,

January 15, 2019

Overview of the January 2019 Welfare trends report

One of the main functions of the welfare system is to support people having difficulty supporting themselves due to ill health or disability. This role stretches back more than a century – at least as far as the National Insurance Act of 1911. The financial support provided by today’s welfare system can be split into those benefits that cushion the incomes of people unable to work for health reasons – principally employment and support allowance (ESA) and,

October 11, 2018

Brexit and our forecasts

Since the referendum we have incorporated Brexit into our forecasts using broad brush assumptions, but as Government policy decisions and developments begin to unfold, we look ahead to the issues we will need to consider when we refine these judgements. In our new paper, we begin to consider how our forecasts might change in this Brexit environment.

September 28, 2018

OBR Working Paper series

The latest in our series of Working Papers were published on 28 September 2018.

Working paper No.13: In-year fiscal forecasting and monitoring presents our approach to in-year forecasting and monitoring of the public finances, and discusses how we assess our forecasts against the published data.

July 17, 2018

The Chairman’s presentation on our latest long-term projections

Robert Chote distils the key messages from our latest Fiscal sustainability report – published today – in his press conference presentation and accompanying speaking note.