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Falling budget deficit continues to undershoot forecast

Government borrowing in May 2021 was £24.3 billion, down over 40 per cent from last year. And year-to-date borrowing of £53.4 billion is £14.1 billion below our March forecast profile. More than a third of that reflects differences in the timing of EU divorce bill payments. But lower spending and moderately stronger receipts growth mean that two months into 2021-22, the underlying outperformance of borrowing relative to forecast is £8.6 billion.

Commentary chart of borrowing

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Fiscal risks report 2021 is due to be published on 6 July and will focus on three major risks to the public finances.

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Report into how our forecasts compare to subsequent outturn data and identifying lessons for future forecasts.

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