December 2021
Welsh taxes outlook
The December 2021 Welsh taxes outlook sets out our forecasts for each of the devolved Welsh taxes: Welsh rates of income tax, land transaction tax and landfill disposals tax.
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Budget deficit falling sharply thanks to strong tax revenues
Government borrowing in December 2021 was £16.8 billion, down £7.6 billion on December 2020. Year to date borrowing of £146.8 billion is down 46.8 per cent on the same period last year and is £13.0 billion below our October forecast profile. That undershoot reflects stronger than expected receipts (thanks largely to a more resilient labour market and strong business profits) more than offsetting higher than expected spending.
News
13 January 2022
Supplementary forecast information release
23 December 2021
Spring 2022 forecast date announced
21 December 2021
Budget deficit continues to fall sharply
16 December 2021
Prof David Miles CBE appointed to the Committee
9 December 2021
Forecast evaluation report – December 2021
9 December 2021
Monthly profiles and ready reckoners
19 November 2021
Budget deficit down over £100 billion so far in 2021-22
21 September 2021
Borrowing continues to undershoot forecast
20 August 2021
Borrowing continues to fall faster than expected
6 July 2021
Fiscal risks report 2021
5 July 2021
Annual report and accounts 2020-21
21 June 2021
Welsh taxes outlook – June 2021 update
1 April 2021
Supplementary forecast information release
24 March 2021
Bronwyn Curtis re-appointed
23 March 2021
Welfare trends report – March 2021
19 March 2021
Supplementary forecast information release
19 February 2021
Sharp rise in budget deficit is slower than expected
22 January 2021
Budget deficit continues to rise sharply
24 September 2020
OECD review hails OBR’s outputs and independence
Featured
Working paper No.17
Evaluating forecast uncertainty
Our latest working paper presents a new methodology to improve the representation of uncertainty around our central forecasts.
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Key publications
Medium-term forecasts
Five year forecasts for the UK economy and public finances and an assessment of whether the Government is likely to achieve its fiscal targets.
Long-term projections
50 year ahead projections for the UK public finances and public sector balance sheet analysis. Also the recent vehicle for our Coronavirus scenarios.
Forecast evaluation
Report into how our forecasts compare to subsequent outturn data and identifying lessons for future forecasts.
Welfare spending trends
An in-depth look at the drivers of welfare spending both inside and outside the Government’s welfare cap.
Fiscal risks
A report published every two years on the main risks to the public finances.
Monthly commentary
Our monthly commentary on the latest public finances data and how it compares to our most recent forecast.