April 24, 2019
Today provides the first provisional outturn estimate for the budget deficit for the full 2018-19 financial year: £24.7 billion, the lowest since 2001-02. Borrowing was £17.2 billion lower than in 2017-18, but £1.8 billion above our March forecast. However, in recent years the initial outturn estimate of the deficit has on average been revised down by around £3 billion within 12 months.
Stronger income tax receipts and lower debt interest payments have delivered the Chancellor a modest fiscal windfall. His higher public spending plans offset only a little of that, with most banked to provide greater headroom against his structural borrowing target in 2020-21. But he is still not yet on course to balance the budget by 2025-26.
Our new explainer, published alongside the March 2019 forecasts, asks how unconventional monetary policy measures have been directly accounted for in the public finances.
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Since 2016, we have been writing analysis on Brexit and its possible impact on the economy and public finances. Assumptions and analysis can be found on our dedicated Brexit page.
April 11, 2019
International and UK experts will undertake an independent review of the Office for Budget Responsibility this summer, assessing its performance and adherence to internationally agreed principles of best practice for independent fiscal institutions.
Under the legislation that created the OBR, the organisation is required to commission an external review every five years. The OBR’s non-executive members,
April 9, 2019
In accordance with the Welsh Government’s fiscal framework, we will prepare and publish independent forecasts of devolved Welsh tax revenues for the 2019-20 Welsh Government Budget onwards. We have agreed a Memorandum of Understanding, Terms of Reference and a Financial Framework to guide this work.
March 13, 2019
Robert Chote distils the key messages from our latest Economic and fiscal outlook – published today – in his press conference presentation and accompanying speaking note.
March 13, 2019
March 13, 2019
Stronger income tax receipts and lower debt interest payments have delivered the Chancellor a modest fiscal windfall. His higher public spending plans offset only a little of that, with most banked to provide greater headroom against his structural borrowing target in 2020-21. But he is still not yet on course to balance the budget by 2025-26.
March 13, 2019
Economic growth in the UK and globally has slowed since the Budget in October, leading us to revise down our near-term GDP forecast. But tax receipts have performed better than we expected in the final months of 2018-19 and we judge that much of this buoyancy will endure. Together with downward pressure on debt interest spending from lower market interest rates,
January 15, 2019
One of the main functions of the welfare system is to support people having difficulty supporting themselves due to ill health or disability. This role stretches back more than a century – at least as far as the National Insurance Act of 1911. The financial support provided by today’s welfare system can be split into those benefits that cushion the incomes of people unable to work for health reasons – principally employment and support allowance (ESA) and,
October 11, 2018
Since the referendum we have incorporated Brexit into our forecasts using broad brush assumptions, but as Government policy decisions and developments begin to unfold, we look ahead to the issues we will need to consider when we refine these judgements. In our new paper, we begin to consider how our forecasts might change in this Brexit environment.
September 28, 2018
The latest in our series of Working Papers were published on 28 September 2018.
Working paper No.13: In-year fiscal forecasting and monitoring presents our approach to in-year forecasting and monitoring of the public finances, and discusses how we assess our forecasts against the published data.
July 17, 2018
Robert Chote distils the key messages from our latest Fiscal sustainability report – published today – in his press conference presentation and accompanying speaking note.
November 16, 2016
The depth and breadth of the economic and fiscal analysis published by the OBR “can be considered as best-practice, and could be used as a benchmark by other advanced countries”, according to the International Monetary Fund’s Fiscal Transparency Evaluation for the UK. “While it is still relatively early in its track record, the OBR’s forecasting record indicates a lower degree of bias than under the Treasury forecasting regime.”