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Budget deficit continues to fall faster than expected

Government borrowing in June 2021 was £22.8 billion, down over 19 per cent from last year. Year-to-date borrowing of £69.5 billion is now £19.0 billion below our March forecast profile. That reflects both stronger-than-expected receipts (consistent with the faster economic rebound in recent months) and lower-than-expected spending (perhaps reflecting continued shortfalls in spending on pandemic-related programmes).

Line chart showing cumulative public sector net borrowing

Fiscal risks report press briefing

News

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6 July 2021

The Chairman’s presentation on our third Fiscal risks report

Fiscal risks report lighthouse

6 July 2021

Fiscal risks report 2021

document or letter icon

5 July 2021

Annual report and accounts 2020-21

Commentary chart of borrowing

22 June 2021

Falling budget deficit continues to undershoot forecast

Welsh taxes outlook icon

21 June 2021

Welsh taxes outlook – June 2021 update

Richard giving evidence to NI parliament

14 June 2021

Evidence to the Northern Ireland Finance Committee

Line chart showing cumulative public sector net borrowing

25 May 2021

Budget deficit remains high, but now falling on last year

bar chart in document icon

5 May 2021

Supplementary forecast information, monthly profiles and long-term determinants

Image of Richard Hughes speaking at NIESR event on future fiscal frameworks

29 April 2021

The Chairman’s remarks at the NIESR’s ‘Future fiscal frameworks’ event

public sector net borrowing

23 April 2021

Record budget deficit undershoots March 2021 forecast

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1 April 2021

Supplementary forecast information release

letter in envelope icon

29 March 2021

Exchange of letters between Rachel Reeves MP and Richard Hughes

Photo of Bronwyn Curtis

24 March 2021

Bronwyn Curtis re-appointed

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23 March 2021

Welfare trends report – March 2021

cumulative public sector net borrowing

19 March 2021

Record budget deficit could undershoot our latest forecast

bar chart in document icon

19 March 2021

Supplementary forecast information release

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3 March 2021

The Chairman’s presentation on our latest economic and fiscal forecast

Cumulative public sector net borrowing

19 February 2021

Sharp rise in budget deficit is slower than expected

Line chart showing cumulative public sector net borrowing

22 January 2021

Budget deficit continues to rise sharply

Real GDP outtruns and forecasts

22 January 2021

Forecast evaluation report 2021

Line chart showing cumulative public sector net borrowing

22 December 2020

Budget deficit continues to rise very sharply

Letter and envelope graphic

21 December 2020

Monthly profiling update published 22 December

Forecast at a glance (including GDP growth, unemployment rate and borrowing stats)

25 November 2020

Coronavirus pushes the budget deficit to almost £400 billion

Line chart showing cumulative public sector net borrowing

21 October 2020

Budget deficit tops £200 billion in six months

Image of Richard Hughes, Andy King and Charlie Bean

7 October 2020

New Chair makes first appearance at Treasury Select Committee

Line chart showing cumulative public sector net borrowing

25 September 2020

Budget deficit reaches £174 billion in just five months

The OBR at 10 intro slide for Robert Chote's presentation to the Society of Professional Economists featuring OBR logo and date of presentation (24 September 2020)

24 September 2020

Society of Professional Economists webinar

OECD logo

24 September 2020

OECD review hails OBR’s outputs and independence

Line chart showing cumulative public sector net borrowing

21 August 2020

Public sector net debt hits £2 trillion for the first time

Line chart showing cumulative public sector net borrowing

21 July 2020

Budget deficit reaches £128 billion in just three months

Photograph of Richard Hughes

15 July 2020

Richard Hughes confirmed as the next Chair of the OBR

Line chart showing real GDP versus our March forecast. Our three economic scenarios assume varying speeds of near-term recovery and degrees of medium-term 'scarring'.

14 July 2020

Budget deficit to hit a peacetime record

Line chart showing cumulative public sector net borrowing

19 June 2020

Budget deficit tops £100 billion in just two months

Photo of Sir Chris Kelly

16 June 2020

Sir Chris Kelly re-appointed

Line chart showing cumulative public sector net borrowing

22 May 2020

Budget deficit leaps to £62 billion in April 2020 alone

Logo celebrating 10th anniversary of the Office for Budget Responsibility

14 May 2020

OBR celebrates its 10th anniversary

Stacked bar chart showing tax-to-GDP ratio rose fractionally between 2007-08 and 2018-19 but the compositional changes were much greater

23 April 2020

Evolution of receipts over the past decade

Line chart showing how a three-month lockdown could see output fall by a third this quarter

14 April 2020

Coronavirus lockdown to deliver large (but hopefully temporary) shock to the economy and public finances

Photograph of Robert Chote speaking at the press conference for the March 2020 forecast publication

11 March 2020

The Chairman’s presentation on our latest economic and fiscal forecast

Line chart comparing Budget policy packages between 1992 and 2020 to show that the Budget 2020 policy package is the biggest since 1992

11 March 2020

Largest Budget giveaway since 1992

5 things you need to know about our forecast: Pre-measures forecast closed in mid-February as usual. So recent coronavirus developments not reflected. Largest Budget package since 1992 adds £29 billion to borrowing in 2024-25. Budget completes reversal of Coalition departmental spending cuts. Some legislated targets missed, but Budget 2020 targets met.

11 March 2020

Overview of the March 2020 Economic and fiscal outlook

Letter and envelope graphic

27 February 2020

Exchange of letters on OBR’s second forecast

Waterfall chart showing the difference and reasons for the difference between Welsh and UK income tax per person in 2016-17

25 February 2020

Welsh taxes outlook: February 2020

Magnifying glass graphic

23 January 2020

Treasury launches search for new Chair of the OBR

Stacked bar chart showing the in-year and growth forecast differences in borrowing between March 2016 and November 2016

19 December 2019

Subdued economic growth in line with our initial post-referendum forecast

Line chart showing difference in borrowing between March 2019 forecast and restated March 2019 forecast

16 December 2019

Restated March 2019 forecast

Letter and envelope graphic

9 September 2019

Letter to Treasury Select Committee on Spending Round 2019 and our next forecast

Shopping bag graphic

20 August 2019

Supplementary forecast information release

Bar chart showing fiscal risks stress test versus March 2019 forecast (looking at sources of differences in borrowing)

18 July 2019

OBR assesses fiscal risks: what might hit the public finances over the next five or 50 years?

Discussion paper No.3 Brexit and the OBR's forecasts (alongside image of map of the UK)

11 October 2018

Brexit and our forecasts

Key publications

Medium-term forecasts

Five year forecasts for the UK economy and public finances and an assessment of whether the Government is likely to achieve its fiscal targets.

Economic and fiscal outlook – March 2021

Last published: March 3, 2021
Next release: Autumn/winter 2021

Long-term projections

50 year ahead projections for the UK public finances and public sector balance sheet analysis. Also the recent vehicle for our Coronavirus scenarios.

Fiscal sustainability report – July 2020

Last published: July 14, 2020
Next release: Summer 2022

Forecast evaluation

Report into how our forecasts compare to subsequent outturn data and identifying lessons for future forecasts.

Forecast evaluation report – January 2021

Last published: January 22, 2021
Next release: Autumn/winter 2021

Welfare spending trends

An in-depth look at the drivers of welfare spending both inside and outside the Government’s welfare cap.

Welfare trends report – March 2021

Last published: March 23, 2021
Next release: Autumn/winter 2021

Fiscal risks

A report published every two years on the main risks to the public finances.

Fiscal risks report – July 2021

Last published: July 6, 2021
Next release: Summer 2023

Monthly commentary

Our monthly commentary on the latest public finances data and how it compares to our most recent forecast.

  Commentary on the public sector finances – June 2021

Last published: July 21, 2021
Next release: 20 August 2021