July 2023
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Read the executive summary of the July 2023 Fiscal risks and sustainability report
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Strong receipts keep borrowing below profile
Borrowing in the first five months of 2023-24 totalled £69.6 billion, £19.3 billion above the same period last year but £11.3 billion below the monthly profile consistent with our March forecast. The downside surprise is more than explained by higher central government receipts (£12.6 billion above profile), reflecting stronger nominal tax bases. This was partly offset by higher central government spending which was £8.2 billion above profile partly reflecting higher-than-forecast public sector pay awards.
Autumn 2023 forecast date
Our latest outlook for the economy and public finances will be published on Wednesday 22 November alongside the Autumn Statement 2023.
News
21 September 2023
November 2023 forecast timetable
21 September 2023
Forecast evaluation report – October 2023
7 September 2023
Tom Josephs appointed to the Committee
5 September 2023
Autumn 2023 forecast date announced
22 August 2023
Year-to-date borrowing remains below profile
10 August 2023
Working paper 19: The OBR’s forecast performance
7 August 2023
An update on the OBR’s external engagement
18 May 2023
Monthly profiles for 2023-24
2 March 2023
Economic and fiscal outlook: user survey results
Featured
July 2023
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July 2023
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Key publications
Medium-term forecasts
Five year forecasts for the UK economy and public finances and an assessment of whether the Government is likely to achieve its fiscal targets.
Fiscal risks and long-term projections
Annual report into the main fiscal risks facing the UK and sustainability of the public finances. This new report is an amalgamation of the FSR and FRR.
Forecast evaluation
Report into how our forecasts compare to subsequent outturn data and identifying lessons for future forecasts.
Welfare spending trends
An in-depth look at the drivers of welfare spending both inside and outside the Government’s welfare cap.
Monthly commentary
Our monthly commentary on the latest public finances data and how it compares to our most recent forecast.
Welsh taxes
We are commissioned by the Welsh Government to produce independent forecasts for devolved Welsh taxes. We formally took on this role in April 2019.
Articles
300 years of UK public finance data
Luke Lanskey and Conor O’Loughnan | 20 July 2023
Our new historical public finances database contains 300 years of tax, spending, borrowing and debt data. This article tells the story of government borrowing and debt since 1700 and how the level and composition of tax and spending have evolved over this period.