Year-to-date borrowing remains above forecast

This morning’s ONS release shows that borrowing in the first four months of 2024-25 totalled £51.4 billion. This is £0.5 billion below the same period last year and £4.7 billion above the monthly profile consistent with our March forecast. The difference with our forecast profile is driven primarily by higher-than-forecast consumption spending by government departments (£5.8 billion), which appears related to strong growth in public sector pay. Receipts are broadly in line with profile in the year to date.