Analytical and discussion papers - Office for Budget Responsibility

Briefing papers

Briefing papers describe our work and explain the material we present. Data available on request.

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Briefing paper No.8: Forecasting potential output – the supply side of the economy
November 17, 2022 – 1.18 MB
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Briefing paper No.7: Evaluating forecast accuracy
October 10, 2017 – 325.53 KB
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Briefing paper No.6: Policy costings and our forecast
March 19, 2014 – 297.11 KB
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Briefing paper No.5: The macroeconomic model
October 9, 2013 – 769.04 KB
The macroeconomic model is altered slightly at each forecast. Download the latest version here.
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Briefing paper No.4: Historical official forecasts database
June 28, 2012 – 981.50 KB
We first published the historical official forecasts database in 2012 and it is now updated after each fiscal event. Download the latest version here.
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Briefing paper No.4: How we present uncertainty
June 28, 2012 – 232.76 KB
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Briefing paper No.3: Forecasting the economy
October 4, 2011 – 422.06 KB
Much of the content in this paper has now been superseded by the economy forecasts in-depth pages.
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Briefing paper No.2: Estimating the output gap
April 21, 2011 –
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Briefing paper No.1: Forecasting the public finances
January 24, 2011 – 834.85 KB
Much of the content in this paper has now been superseded by the fiscal forecasts in-depth pages.

Working papers

As part of the OBR work programme we will produce working papers on topics which will inform discussion on our forecasts. Data available on request.

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Working paper No.21: Developments in devolved income tax
October 26, 2023 – 1.12 MB
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Working paper No.20: A review of welfare policy costings
October 26, 2023 – 1.39 MB
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Working paper No.19: The OBR's forecast performance - Charts and tables
August 10, 2023 – 1.83 MB
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Working paper No.19: The OBR's forecast performance
August 10, 2023 – 478.41 KB
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Working paper No.18: Emissions and our tax forecasts
May 4, 2023 – 661.62 KB
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Working paper No.17: Evaluating forecast uncertainty with stochastic simulations
December 9, 2021 – 567.51 KB
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Working paper No.16: Forecasting the balance sheet: Public sector net worth
October 27, 2021 – 507.11 KB
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Working paper No.15: The evolution of public sector receipts over the past decade
April 23, 2020 – 459.82 KB
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Working paper No.14: Devolved income tax: forecasting by tax bands
September 28, 2018 – 384.78 KB
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Working paper No.13: In-year fiscal forecasting and monitoring
September 28, 2018 – 557.20 KB
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Working paper No.12: Student loans and fiscal illusions - charts and tables
July 17, 2018 – 864.29 KB
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Working paper No.12: Student loans and fiscal illusions
July 17, 2018 – 607.20 KB
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Working paper No.11: Evaluation of HMRC anti-avoidance and operational measures - charts and tables
December 7, 2017 – 365.19 KB
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FOI: Anti-avoidance evaluation supplementary information
December 7, 2017 – 35.47 KB
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Working paper No.11: Evaluation of HMRC anti-avoidance and operational measures
September 21, 2017 – 504.41 KB
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Working paper No.10: Forestalling ahead of property tax changes
October 11, 2016 – 2.20 MB
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Working paper No.9: Fiscal sustainability and public spending on health
September 21, 2016 – 1.77 MB
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Working paper No.8: Anti-avoidance costings: an evaluation
January 22, 2016 – 375.30 KB
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Working paper No.7: Crisis and consolidation in the public finances - charts and tables
September 10, 2014 – 4.06 MB
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Working paper No.7: Crisis and consolidation in the public finances
September 9, 2014 – 952.99 KB
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Working paper No.6: Forecasting house prices - charts and tables
July 11, 2014 – 677.46 KB
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Working paper No.6: Forecasting house prices
July 10, 2014 – 452.05 KB
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Working paper No.5: Output gap measurement: judgement and uncertainty
July 10, 2014 – 548.12 KB
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Working paper No.4: A small model of the UK economy
July 20, 2012 – 420.25 KB
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Working paper No.3: Cyclically adjusting the public finances
June 28, 2012 – 409.70 KB
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Working paper No.2: The long-run difference between RPI and CPI inflation
November 29, 2011 – 354.62 KB
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Working paper No.1: Estimating the UK's historical output gap
November 29, 2011 – 537.50 KB

Discussion and Occasional papers

The OBR publishes discussion papers to generate debate around key aspects of its work. Our occasional papers are publications that are not part of a wider set of releases. Data available on request.

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Discussion paper No.5: Public investment and potential output
August 29, 2024 – 530.92 KB
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Discussion paper No.4: Next steps for climate change analysis
October 26, 2023 – 450.51 KB
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Discussion paper No.3: Brexit and the OBR's forecasts
October 11, 2018 – 1.05 MB
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Discussion paper No.2: What should our Fiscal risks report cover?
October 11, 2016 – 1.97 MB
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Supplementary information on house price forecast - December 2013
December 5, 2013 – 72.20 KB
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Forecasting Scottish taxes
March 13, 2012 – 697.93 KB
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Discussion paper No.1: What should we include in the fiscal sustainability report?
March 23, 2011 – 1.14 MB
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Assessment of the Effect of Oil Price Fluctuations on the Public Finances
September 14, 2010 –

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