Category Archive: Monthly public finances release

The ONS’s initial full-year estimate of government borrowing in 2023-24 is £120.7 billion (4.4 per cent GDP), a £7.6 billion (5.9 per cent) decrease on the previous year. This is £6.6 billion (5.8 per cent) higher than our March forecast. This difference is largely driven by the initial estimate of central government receipts, which is…

This morning’s ONS data release estimates that borrowing in the first 11 months of 2023-24 was £106.8 billion, £4.6 billion below the same period last year. Borrowing in February was £8.4 billion, down £3.4 billion on the same month last year.

With the Spring Budget on 6 March, we will not be publishing our usual Public Sector Finances monthly commentary. January’s outturn, including revised PAYE and NIC1 receipts, was incorporated into the Round 2 pre-measures forecast submitted to the Chancellor on 14 February.

This morning’s ONS release shows that borrowing in the first nine months of 2023-24 totalled £119.1 billion, £11.1 billion above the same period last year. This is £4.9 billion below the monthly profile consistent with our November forecast, largely due to lower than expected inflation reducing debt interest payments.

The ONS release this morning shows borrowing in the first eight months of 2023-24 totalled £116.4 billion, £24.4 billion above the same period last year.  In the remainder of the year, we expect borrowing to rise more slowly than last year due primarily to stronger receipts.

The ONS release this morning shows borrowing in the first six months of 2023-24 totalled £81.7 billion, £15.3 billion above the same period last year but £19.8 billion below the monthly profile consistent with our March forecast. The downside surprise is more than explained by higher central government receipts (£14.7 billion above profile), reflecting stronger…

Borrowing in the first five months of 2023-24 totalled £69.6 billion, £19.3 billion above the same period last year but £11.3 billion below the monthly profile consistent with our March forecast. The downside surprise is more than explained by higher central government receipts (£12.6 billion above profile), reflecting stronger nominal tax bases. This was partly…

Borrowing in the first four months of 2023-24 totalled £56.6 billion, £13.7 billion above the same period last year but £11.3 billion below the monthly profile consistent with our March forecast. The downside surprise is more than explained by higher central government receipts (£10.4 billion above profile), reflecting stronger nominal tax bases, alongside lower borrowing…

Borrowing in the first three months of 2023-24 totalled £54.4 billion, £12.2 billion above the same period last year but £7.5 billion below the monthly profile consistent with our March forecast. This downside surprise is more than explained by higher central government receipts (£7.7 billion above profile) thanks to surpluses across the three major taxes…

Public sector net debt stood at 100.1 per cent of GDP in May 2023, topping 100 per cent of GDP for the first time in 62 years. Borrowing in the first two months of 2023-24 totalled £42.9 billion, almost double the same period last year and £2.1 billion above the monthly profile consistent with our…