Category Archive: Monthly public finances release

Line chart showing cumulative public sector net borrowing

Initial estimate of 2024-25 borrowing above forecast

This morning’s ONS release provides an initial estimate for 2024-25 public sector net borrowing of £151.9 billion. This is £20.7 billion above the previous year and £14.6 billion above our March forecast. As the ONS state, this initial estimate should be seen as provisional and is typically revised in future. However, the current difference with…

Line chart showing cumulative public sector net borrowing

Lower-than-expected January receipts push borrowing further above forecast

This morning’s ONS release estimates that borrowing in the first ten months of 2024-25 totalled £118.2 billion. This is £11.6 billion above the same period last year and £12.8 billion above the monthly profile consistent with our October forecast. The year-to-date shortfall against forecast is driven by lower-than-expected receipts, particularly self-assessed tax receipts and corporation…

Bar and line chart showing cumulative public sector net borrowing

Year-to-date borrowing remains above forecast due to higher-than-expected local authority borrowing

This morning’s ONS release estimates that borrowing in the first nine months of 2024-25 totalled £129.9 billion. This is £4.1 billion above the monthly profile consistent with our October forecast. This upside surprise against profile reflects higher-than-expected borrowing by local authorities and public corporations, with central government borrowing – the largest sector – slightly below…

Line chart showing cumulative public sector net borrowing

Revisions push year-to-date borrowing above forecast

This morning’s ONS release shows that borrowing in the first eight months of 2024-25 totalled £113.2 billion. This is £0.4 billion below the same period last year but £2.0 billion above the monthly profile consistent with our October forecast. This difference reflects upward revisions to borrowing by local authorities and public corporations, which is only…

Line chart showing cumulative public sector net borrowing

Year-to-date borrowing slightly up on previous year

This morning’s ONS release shows that borrowing in the first seven months of 2024-25 totalled £96.6 billion. This is £1.1 billion above the same period last year. The year-on-year increase is driven primarily by higher central government spending, particularly departmental consumption expenditure and welfare spending. Strength in receipts compared to last year has offset a…

Line chart showing cumulative public sector net borrowing

Departmental spending keeps borrowing above forecast

This morning’s ONS release shows that borrowing in the first five months of 2024-25 totalled £64.1 billion.This is £0.3 billion above the same period last year and £6.2 billion above the monthly profile consistent with our March forecast. Higher-than-expected borrowing continues to be driven by departmental spending, particularly consumption expenditure on goods and services which…

Line chart showing cumulative public sector net borrowing

Year-to-date borrowing remains above forecast

This morning’s ONS release shows that borrowing in the first four months of 2024-25 totalled £51.4 billion. This is £0.5 billion below the same period last year and £4.7 billion above the monthly profile consistent with our March forecast. The difference with our forecast profile is driven primarily by higher-than-forecast consumption spending by government departments…

Line chart showing cumulative public sector net borrowing

Year-to-date borrowing higher than forecast

Borrowing in the first three months of 2024-25 was £49.8 billion, £1.1 billion below the same period last year but £3.2 billion above our forecast profile. This was largely driven by highly provisional data on departmental spending returns, particularly for consumption expenditure which is £4.6 billion higher than forecast. Receipts in the first three months…

Line chart showing cumulative public sector net borrowing

Borrowing in April slightly above forecast

Initial outturns for April 2024 suggest that borrowing was £1.2 billion (6.3 per cent) higher than our March forecast profile. This was driven by each of departmental expenditure on goods and services and spending on net social benefits coming in above forecast, and central government receipts coming in below forecast (by £0.8 billion in each…

Line chart showing cumulative public sector net borrowing

First estimate of 2023-24 borrowing higher than forecast

The ONS’s initial full-year estimate of government borrowing in 2023-24 is £120.7 billion (4.4 per cent GDP), a £7.6 billion (5.9 per cent) decrease on the previous year. This is £6.6 billion (5.8 per cent) higher than our March forecast. This difference is largely driven by the initial estimate of central government receipts, which is…