Strong receipts bring year-to-date borrowing below forecast

Borrowing in the first three months of 2023-24 totalled £54.4 billion, £12.2 billion above the same period last year but £7.5 billion below the monthly profile consistent with our March forecast. This downside surprise is more than explained by higher central government receipts (£7.7 billion above profile) thanks to surpluses across the three major taxes – onshore corporation tax, VAT, and PAYE income tax and NICs – alongside lower borrowing by local authorities. Central government spending coming in £4.5 billion above profile provided a partial offset.