Category Archive: Monthly public finances release

This morning’s ONS release shows that borrowing in the first four months of 2024-25 totalled £51.4 billion. This is £0.5 billion below the same period last year and £4.7 billion above the monthly profile consistent with our March forecast. The difference with our forecast profile is driven primarily by higher-than-forecast consumption spending by government departments…

Borrowing in the first three months of 2024-25 was £49.8 billion, £1.1 billion below the same period last year but £3.2 billion above our forecast profile. This was largely driven by highly provisional data on departmental spending returns, particularly for consumption expenditure which is £4.6 billion higher than forecast. Receipts in the first three months…

Initial outturns for April 2024 suggest that borrowing was £1.2 billion (6.3 per cent) higher than our March forecast profile. This was driven by each of departmental expenditure on goods and services and spending on net social benefits coming in above forecast, and central government receipts coming in below forecast (by £0.8 billion in each…

The ONS’s initial full-year estimate of government borrowing in 2023-24 is £120.7 billion (4.4 per cent GDP), a £7.6 billion (5.9 per cent) decrease on the previous year. This is £6.6 billion (5.8 per cent) higher than our March forecast. This difference is largely driven by the initial estimate of central government receipts, which is…

This morning’s ONS data release estimates that borrowing in the first 11 months of 2023-24 was £106.8 billion, £4.6 billion below the same period last year. Borrowing in February was £8.4 billion, down £3.4 billion on the same month last year.

With the Spring Budget on 6 March, we will not be publishing our usual Public Sector Finances monthly commentary. January’s outturn, including revised PAYE and NIC1 receipts, was incorporated into the Round 2 pre-measures forecast submitted to the Chancellor on 14 February.

This morning’s ONS release shows that borrowing in the first nine months of 2023-24 totalled £119.1 billion, £11.1 billion above the same period last year. This is £4.9 billion below the monthly profile consistent with our November forecast, largely due to lower than expected inflation reducing debt interest payments.

The ONS release this morning shows borrowing in the first eight months of 2023-24 totalled £116.4 billion, £24.4 billion above the same period last year.  In the remainder of the year, we expect borrowing to rise more slowly than last year due primarily to stronger receipts.

The ONS release this morning shows borrowing in the first six months of 2023-24 totalled £81.7 billion, £15.3 billion above the same period last year but £19.8 billion below the monthly profile consistent with our March forecast. The downside surprise is more than explained by higher central government receipts (£14.7 billion above profile), reflecting stronger…

Borrowing in the first five months of 2023-24 totalled £69.6 billion, £19.3 billion above the same period last year but £11.3 billion below the monthly profile consistent with our March forecast. The downside surprise is more than explained by higher central government receipts (£12.6 billion above profile), reflecting stronger nominal tax bases. This was partly…