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January tax receipts and debt interest far exceed forecasts

January is a big month for tax receipts, with self-assessment (SA) payments due. This year’s relate to 2020-21 liabilities – a year affected by both lockdowns and huge fiscal support. At £26.8 billion, SA receipts exceeded our forecast by £7.8 billion. That helped take the year to date receipts surplus relative to our October 2021…

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Supplementary forecast information release

Since the publication of our October 2021 Economic and fiscal outlook (EFO) we have received a request for further information on the super-deduction costing. We have published this new supplementary forecast information below and on the October 2021 EFO page.

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Supplementary forecast information release

Since the publication of our October 2021 Economic and fiscal outlook (EFO) we have received a request for a further breakdown of the Health and social care levy costing. We have published this new supplementary forecast information below and on the October 2021 EFO page.

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Budget deficit falling sharply thanks to strong tax revenues

Government borrowing in December 2021 was £16.8 billion, down £7.6 billion on December 2020. Year to date borrowing of £146.8 billion is down 46.8 per cent on the same period last year and is £13.0 billion below our October forecast profile. That undershoot reflects stronger than expected receipts (thanks largely to a more resilient labour…

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Supplementary forecast information release

Since the publication of our October 2021 Economic and fiscal outlook (EFO) we have received a request for further detail on the impact of policy changes on the number of taxpayers by band. We have published this new supplementary forecast information below and on the October 2021 EFO page.

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Spring 2022 forecast date announced

The Chancellor has announced that the Spring 2022 forecast will take place on Wednesday 23 March. That day we will release the latest outlook for the economy and public finances.

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Budget deficit continues to fall sharply

Government borrowing in November 2021 was £17.4 billion, down £4.9 billion on last November. Year to date borrowing of £136.0 billion is down 46 per cent on the same period last year and is £7.1 billion below our October forecast profile. That undershoot reflects stronger than expected receipts (thanks largely to a more resilient labour…

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Prof David Miles CBE appointed to the Committee

The Treasury Select Committee has today approved the appointment of Prof. David Miles CBE to the Budget Responsibility Committee, following a hearing before MPs on 15 December. David will formally begin his appointment in January, replacing Prof Sir. Charlie Bean who steps down at the end of this year. We thank Prof Sir Charlie Bean…

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Forecast evaluation report – December 2021

The pandemic delivered one of the largest peacetime shocks to the UK economy in history last year. And that resulted in the largest forecast errors on record. But, as we document in this year’s Forecast evaluation report, it also provided several important lessons about economic and fiscal forecasting as such a large and novel shock…

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Monthly profiles and ready reckoners

On 9 December alongside the Forecast evaluation report, we published monthly profiles for receipts, spending and borrowing in 2021-22 consistent with our October 2021 Economic and fiscal outlook, updated ready reckoners and a working paper on how to improve the representation of uncertainty around our central forecasts.    

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Prof. David Miles CBE nominated to join OBR

The Chancellor of the Exchequer has nominated Prof. David Miles CBE, Imperial College London professor and former Monetary Policy Committee member at the Bank of England, to join the OBR’s Budget Responsibility Committee. If the nomination is approved by the Treasury Select Committee, he would replace Prof. Sir Charlie Bean who finishes his term at…

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Non-executive members review the Budget timetable decision-making process

The independent non-executive directors of the OBR have undertaken a review of the decision-making process around the forecast timetable for the Autumn 2021 Budget to inform the forthcoming review of the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU). The previous MoU review in 2017 was confined to government stakeholders involved in the forecast process. In this case, to…

Annual report on forecast accuracy published 9 December

Latest Forecast evaluation report to be published on 9 December

Our latest Forecast evaluation report (FER) will be published at 11am on Thursday 9 December. Our annual FER examines how our forecasts compare to subsequent outturn data and identifies lessons for future forecasts. The pandemic brought about the largest shock to the economy and public finances since the OBR was established. This report will look…

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Budget deficit down over £100 billion so far in 2021-22

Government borrowing in October 2021 was £18.8 billion, down £0.2 billion from last year. But year to date borrowing of £127.3 billion is down £103.4 billion (44.8 per cent) on the same period last year. This reflects the economic recovery boosting receipts and the lower cost of pandemic-related support schemes, but is partially offset by…