The budget deficit continues to fall year on year, with April-to-July borrowing of £55.0 billion down £12.1 billion on last year. But it was £3.0 billion above our March forecast profile, largely reflecting higher spending. Sharp rises in inflation continue to raise debt interest costs by even more than our forecast assumed, while the cost-of-living…

The budget deficit continues to fall year on year, with April-to-June borrowing of £55.4 billion down £5.7 billion on last year. But it was £3.7 billion above our most recent forecast profile, largely reflecting higher spending, alongside modestly lower receipts. Debt interest spending hit a record high – for both the single month of June…

Richard Hughes distils the key messages from our first Fiscal risks and sustainability in his press conference presentation and accompanying speaking note.

In little more than two years, the UK economy and public finances have felt the consequences of a global health crisis caused by Covid-19, a global security crisis sparked by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and a global energy crisis brought about by both. In a little over a decade, we have also felt the economic…

It is hard to escape the conclusion that the world is becoming a riskier place. The past two decades have seen a global financial crisis, a global health crisis, and a global energy crisis triggered by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. These global shocks add to ageing and other domestic cost pressures to place public debt…

The budget deficit continued to fall in May, with year-to-date borrowing of £35.9 billion down £6.4 billion on last year. But it was £6.4 billion above our most recent forecast profile. This overshoot reflects both lower receipts and higher spending – with debt interest spending in the year to date a fifth higher than forecast…

Our two biennial reports on the long-term sustainability of the public finances (Fiscal sustainability report) and fiscal risks facing the UK (Fiscal risks report) will be combined into a single annual report for the first time this summer. Our first report on Fiscal risks and sustainability will be published on Thursday 7 July. The 2022…

The budget deficit continued to fall in April 2022, with borrowing of £18.6 billion down £5.6 billion on last year and just £0.6 billion below our most recent forecast profile. By contrast the more timely data from cash receipts were particularly strong, up 18.5 per cent on last April and £6.4 billion (10.2 per cent)…

The pandemic caused the deepest recession in the UK in living memory, prompted the largest fiscal policy response outside the World Wars, and has, so far, been followed by an unusually rapid economic recovery. The past two years also reshaped welfare spending and can be expected to continue to do so. So this year’s Welfare…

Our latest Welfare trends report (WTR) will be published at 11am on Tuesday 24 May. Our biennial WTR examines the drivers of welfare spending. This year’s report will focus on changes in non-pensioner welfare spending during and after recessions, comparing the pandemic to the previous three UK recessions in the past half-century.

The initial full-year estimate of government borrowing in 2021-22 is £151.8 billion, less than half the 2020-21 figure but £24.0 billion above our March forecast (and £16.7 billion above it on a like-for-like basis). This surprise relative to forecast is largely due to higher-than-expected central government spending, which outweighed stronger-than-expected receipts. The like-for-like surprise could…

The public finances have emerged from the pandemic in better shape than expected. But Russia’s invasion of Ukraine will push inflation to a 40-year high of almost 9 per cent, and living standards are set for a historic fall over the next 12 months. The Chancellor used his Spring Statement to deliver rebates and tax…

Richard Hughes distils the key messages from our latest Economic and fiscal outlook in his press conference presentation and accompanying speaking note.

Two years since the start of the pandemic, this Economic and fiscal outlook (EFO) is presented against the backdrop of another unfolding global shock. The Russian invasion of Ukraine is foremost a human tragedy and a reminder of the terrible costs of wars and the immense and immeasurable losses for those caught up in them….

March 2022 All but two policy costings presented to the Office for Budget Responsibility at Spring Statement 2022 were scrutinised and were certified as reasonable, central estimates were included in our forecasts. The Government’s Spring Statement 2022 policy costings document briefly describes the methodologies underpinning these costings. In our March 2022 Economic and fiscal outlook we have…