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Overview of the July 2019 Fiscal risks report

In 2017 we produced our first Fiscal risks report (FRR), an assessment of the shocks and pressures that could threaten our forecast for the public finances over the medium term and fiscal sustainability over the longer term. In this, our second report, we revisit and broaden that assessment in light of recent economic and fiscal…

Fiscal risks report 2019

Our second Fiscal risks report will be published at 9.30am on Thursday 18 July, two years since our inaugural report on risks to the public finances. Commissioned by Parliament in 2015, the report identifies and analyses risks to the medium term outlook for the public finances and to long-term fiscal sustainability. It covers a wide…

Borrowing in April little changed from last year

Borrowing fell by just £33 million in April compared with last year, despite a £0.8 billion special dividend received on RBS shares. After the sharp drop in borrowing in 2018-19, we expect a small rise this year due to tax and spending giveaways. The 2018-19 outturn was revised down by £1.1 billion this month and…

Deficit fell by 40 per cent in 2018-19

Today provides the first provisional outturn estimate for the budget deficit for the full 2018-19 financial year: £24.7 billion, the lowest since 2001-02. Borrowing was £17.2 billion lower than in 2017-18, but £1.8 billion above our March forecast. However, in recent years the initial outturn estimate of the deficit has on average been revised down…

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OECD commissioned to lead second external review of the OBR

International and UK experts will undertake an independent review of the Office for Budget Responsibility this summer, assessing its performance and adherence to internationally agreed principles of best practice for independent fiscal institutions. Under the legislation that created the OBR, the organisation is required to commission an external review every five years. The OBR’s non-executive…

OBR to produce independent forecasts of devolved Welsh tax revenues

In accordance with the Welsh Government’s fiscal framework, we will prepare and publish independent forecasts of devolved Welsh tax revenues for the 2019-20 Welsh Government Budget onwards. We have agreed a Memorandum of Understanding, Terms of Reference and a Financial Framework to guide this work. Yn unol â fframwaith cyllidol Llywodraeth Cymru bydd yr OBR yn…

Deficit continues to fall in 2018-19

Broad-based growth in tax receipts and lower debt interest spending continued to push the deficit down relative to last year in February. With only one month of 2018-19 to go, borrowing is down almost half relative to the same period in 2017-18 – broadly in line with our recent forecast.

Policy costings document March 2019

March 2019 All policies announced since Budget 2018 were presented to the Office for Budget Responsibility at Spring Statement 2019. They were scrutinised, certified as reasonable, central estimates and were included in our forecasts. In our March 2019 Economic and fiscal outlook we have published an assessment on the level of uncertainty associated with each of the…

Supplementary forecast information release: Long-term economic determinants – March 2019

The economic determinants that underpin our long-term fiscal projections are used by organisations inside and outside government to inform their own long-term modelling. Table 1.1 below presents our latest long-term assumptions, consistent with the central forecast in our March 2019 Economic and fiscal outlook (EFO). Table 1.1: Long-term economic determinants Annual growth rate, unless otherwise…

Chancellor banks most of modest fiscal windfall

Stronger income tax receipts and lower debt interest payments have delivered the Chancellor a modest fiscal windfall. His higher public spending plans offset only a little of that, with most banked to provide greater headroom against his structural borrowing target in 2020-21. But he is still not yet on course to balance the budget by…

Overview of the March 2019 Economic and fiscal outlook

Economic growth in the UK and globally has slowed since the Budget in October, leading us to revise down our near-term GDP forecast. But tax receipts have performed better than we expected in the final months of 2018-19 and we judge that much of this buoyancy will endure. Together with downward pressure on debt interest…

Deficit continues to fall sharply in 2018-19

Double-digit growth in tax receipts in January generated a record monthly budget surplus, up sharply relative to last year. Over the first ten months of 2018-19, borrowing is now down almost half relative to the same period in 2017-18 – a slightly larger fall than implied by our latest full-year forecast.