Last week HMT launched the recruitment campaign to find Professor Sir Charlie Bean’s successor as the economic expert on the Budget Responsibility Committee. The Budget Responsibility Committee (BRC) takes collective responsibility for the analysis and judgements that underpin the work of the office and consists of three executive members. Executive members are appointed by the…

The Chancellor of the Exchequer has commissioned the OBR to prepare our next forecast for the economy and public finances for publication on Wednesday 27 October. Read the Chancellor’s letter to the Chair of the Treasury Select Committee.

Government borrowing in June 2021 was £22.8 billion, down over 19 per cent from last year. Year-to-date borrowing of £69.5 billion is now £19.0 billion below our March forecast profile. That reflects both stronger-than-expected receipts (consistent with the faster economic rebound in recent months) and lower-than-expected spending (perhaps reflecting continued shortfalls in spending on pandemic-related…

Richard Hughes distils the key messages from our third Fiscal risks report in his press conference presentation and accompanying speaking note.

After the second ‘once in a century’ shock in just two decades, our third Fiscal risks report focuses on three large, and potentially catastrophic, sources of fiscal risks. The pandemic could leave £10 billion per year in spending pressures and long-term economic scars. While unmitigated climate change would spell disaster, the net fiscal costs of…

We have just published our Annual report and accounts 2020-21, which outlines our achievements over the past year and contains an assessment of how we have performed our main duties by our non-executive members. It also contains our accounts for the last financial year and information about how we work.

Government borrowing in May 2021 was £24.3 billion, down over 40 per cent from last year. And year-to-date borrowing of £53.4 billion is £14.1 billion below our March forecast profile. More than a third of that reflects differences in the timing of EU divorce bill payments. But lower spending and moderately stronger receipts growth mean…

On 22 June we published a small update to the Welsh taxes outlook based on recent developments in land transaction tax and landfill disposals tax receipts. Ar 22 Mehefin cyhoeddwyd diweddariad bach gennym i ragolygon trethi Cymru yn seiliedig ar ddatblygiadau diweddar mewn derbyniadau treth trafodion tir a derbyniadau treth gwarediadau tirlenwi. Read the Welsh…

On 9 June, OBR Chair Richard Hughes gave evidence to the Northern Ireland Finance Committee on the future role of an independent fiscal council for Northern Ireland. You can read the report on the Northern Ireland Assembly website or watch on NI Assembly TV.

Government borrowing in April 2021 of £31.7 billion was £15.6 billion below last April and £7.3 billion below the profile consistent with our most recent forecast. The shortfall against forecast mostly relates to the timing of payments to the EU. The underlying outperformance is just £1.8 billion. Compared to last April, at the start of…

Every two years since 2017 the Office for Budget Responsibility produces a report on the fiscal risks facing the UK. We will publish our latest Fiscal risks report (FRR) on Tuesday 6 July. As previously announced, alongside providing updates on significant developments regarding specific risks highlighted in our previous reports, the 2021 FRR will focus…

Since the publication of our March 2021 Economic and fiscal outlook we have received a request for further detail on our betting and gaming duties forecast. We have published this new supplementary forecast information below and on the March 2021 EFO page. We have also published updated monthly profiles below and on our monthly commentary…

Richard Hughes spoke at the conclusion of the National Institute of Economic and Social Research’s (NIESR) ‘Future fiscal frameworks’ event on Monday 26 April, highlighting the lessons of the last decade for economic forecasters.

The initial estimate of government borrowing for the 2020-21 fiscal year of £303.1 billion is roughly double the previous record set at the height of the financial crisis in 2009-10 (£157.7 billion). But it is £24.3 billion below our March forecast on a like-for-like basis (and £51.5 billion below it including loan write-offs that are…

Every two years the Office for Budget Responsibility produces a report on the fiscal risks facing the UK. Our next Fiscal risks report (FRR) is due to be released this summer.  This FRR is being prepared in the wake of the largest fiscal risk to have crystallised in peacetime – the coronavirus pandemic – the economic and fiscal consequences of which continue to be felt. It will therefore…