A link to our Economic and fiscal outlook document went live on our website too early this morning. It has been removed. We apologise for this technical error and have initiated an investigation into how this happened. We will be reporting to our Oversight Board, the Treasury, and the Commons Treasury Committee on how this…

On 3 September 2025 the Chancellor commissioned us to publish our latest outlook for the economy and public finances on Wednesday 26 November. We have now agreed the timetable for the forecast process and published the detail below. Update on 14 November: Financial market assumptions and the incorporation of outturn data The window in which…

We have published an update to the Welsh taxes outlook with new forecasts for land transaction tax and landfill disposals tax receipts. The report is available in English and Welsh. Rhagolwg trethi Cymru – diweddariad Hydref 2025 Rydym wedi cyhoeddi diweddariad i ragolygon trethi Cymru gyda rhagolygon newydd ar gyfer derbyniadau treth trafodion tir a threth…

This morning’s ONS release estimates that borrowing in the first five months of 2025-26 totalled £83.8 billion. This is £16.2 billion above the same period last year and £11.4 billion above the monthly profile consistent with our March forecast. The overshoot in this month’s estimates compared to our March forecast profile is primarily due to…

We have published our updated tax and spending ‘ready reckoner’ consistent with our March 2025 Economic and fiscal outlook. Our ready reckoner allows anyone to obtain quick, indicative estimates of the fiscal impact of a particular change in one or more economic variables. Read our article on the ready reckoner to find out more.

The Chancellor has announced that the Budget will take place on Wednesday 26 November 2025. Our latest outlook for the economy and public finances will be released on the same day.

This morning’s ONS release estimates that borrowing in the first four months of 2025-26 totalled £60.0 billion. This is £6.7 billion above the same period last year and in line with the monthly profile consistent with our March forecast, with both accrued receipts and spending close to the March forecast profile.

This morning’s ONS release estimates that borrowing in the first three months of 2025-26 totalled £57.8 billion. This is £7.5 billion above the same period last year, which is exactly in line with our March forecast monthly profile. Central government receipts and spending are both broadly in line with the forecast profile. These initial outturn…

Since the publication of our March 2025 Economic and fiscal outlook (EFO) we have received a request for further detail on tobacco and vaping duty elasticities. We have published this new supplementary forecast information below and on the March 2025 EFO page.  

The Chancellor nominated Richard Hughes to serve a second and final term as Chair of the OBR. Following a reappointment hearing, the Treasury Committee of the House of Commons approved the re-appointment on 15 July 2025, saying that they were ‘satisfied that Richard Hughes has the appropriate professional competence and personal independence to continue in…

We have published our response to the third external review which sets out how we are addressing the 11 recommendations made by Laura van Geest in her February 2025 review of the OBR. These recommendations span our independence, analytical infrastructure, and communications impact. We have already implemented the recommendations on independence and are progressing work…

Richard Hughes distils the key messages from our latest Fiscal risks and sustainability report in his press conference presentation and accompanying speaking note. Watch back on YouTube here:

Efforts to put the UK’s public finances on a sustainable footing after a series of global shocks have met with only limited and temporary success in recent years, leaving the UK with the sixth-highest debt, fifth-highest deficit, and third-highest borrowing costs among 36 advanced economies. Against this more vulnerable backdrop, the risks to the fiscal…

Our 2025 Forecast evaluation report marks a shift from previous reports, providing an updated assessment of our forecast performance over the past 15 years, an in-depth evaluation of successive forecasts made for fiscal year 2023-24, and a set of lessons learnt for our future economy and fiscal forecasts. In doing so, the report evaluates the…

This morning’s ONS release estimates that borrowing in the first two months of 2025-26 totalled £37.7 billion. This is £1.6 billion above the same period last year and £2.9 billion below the monthly profile consistent with our March forecast. Central government spending is £1.6 billion below the forecast profile, though spending data is always highly…