Since its creation, the OBR has scrutinised over 250 policy costings relating to changes in the benefits and tax credits systems. This paper looks back at how our scrutiny of those policy costings has evolved by reviewing ten case studies of major welfare policy changes taken from the 41 welfare policy announcements made by the…

Over the last five years, the OBR has made great efforts to understand and analyse the fiscal implications of climate change. To date, our analysis has focused primarily on mitigation risks, most notably in the climate change chapter of our 2021 Fiscal risks report (FRR) which provided the UK’s first comprehensive estimate of the fiscal…

The ONS release this morning shows borrowing in the first six months of 2023-24 totalled £81.7 billion, £15.3 billion above the same period last year but £19.8 billion below the monthly profile consistent with our March forecast. The downside surprise is more than explained by higher central government receipts (£14.7 billion above profile), reflecting stronger…

On 5 September the Chancellor announced that the Autumn Statement 2023 will be held on Wednesday 22 November and commissioned us to publish our latest outlook for the economy and public finances that day. We have now agreed the timetable for the forecast process and published the detail below.

Borrowing in the first five months of 2023-24 totalled £69.6 billion, £19.3 billion above the same period last year but £11.3 billion below the monthly profile consistent with our March forecast. The downside surprise is more than explained by higher central government receipts (£12.6 billion above profile), reflecting stronger nominal tax bases. This was partly…

The Treasury Select Committee has today approved the appointment of Tom Josephs to the Budget Responsibility Committee (BRC), following a hearing before MPs on 5 September. Tom will formally begin his appointment later this month, replacing Andy King who stepped down at the end of August. We thank Andy King for his 10 years of…

Since the publication of our July 2023 Fiscal risks and sustainability (FRS) report, we have received a request for further detail on our long-term fiscal projections. We have published this new supplementary forecast information below and on the July 2023 FRS page.

The Chancellor has announced that the Autumn Statement 2023 will take place on Wednesday 22 November. Our latest outlook for the economy and public finances will be released on the same day.

Borrowing in the first four months of 2023-24 totalled £56.6 billion, £13.7 billion above the same period last year but £11.3 billion below the monthly profile consistent with our March forecast. The downside surprise is more than explained by higher central government receipts (£10.4 billion above profile), reflecting stronger nominal tax bases, alongside lower borrowing…

The Chancellor of the Exchequer has nominated Tom Josephs to join the OBR’s Budget Responsibility Committee (BRC). If the nomination is approved by the Treasury Select Committee, Tom will replace Andy King as the fiscal expert on the BRC later this year. Tom Josephs is currently Director of Private Pensions Policy at the Department for…

Our latest working paper, The OBR’s forecast performance, provides a comprehensive evaluation of the OBR’s economic and fiscal forecasting record since we were established in 2010. We assess how our 27 forecasts have performed against outturn over the past 13 years and look at how our forecasting record compares to other UK and international forecasters….

In early 2023, we sought expressions of interest for membership of our advisory panel from academics, economists, researchers and industry specialists with expertise in at least one of these six categories: macroeconomics and econometrics; public sector finances and public economics; financial markets and corporate finance; energy and climate change; health and longevity; and labour market…

Borrowing in the first three months of 2023-24 totalled £54.4 billion, £12.2 billion above the same period last year but £7.5 billion below the monthly profile consistent with our March forecast. This downside surprise is more than explained by higher central government receipts (£7.7 billion above profile) thanks to surpluses across the three major taxes…

Richard Hughes distils the key messages from our latest Fiscal risks and sustainability report in his press conference presentation and accompanying speaking note.

In the few years since the ‘once in a century’ shock caused by a global pandemic, rising health-related economic inactivity from 2020, energy prices from 2021 and interest rates from 2022 have placed further pressure on an already-challenging outlook for the public finances – pushing public debt above 100 per cent of GDP and the…