Other news

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Two new articles on the economic impacts of Autumn Statement 2023 policies

In our November 2023 Economic and fiscal outlook (EFO), we analysed the economic impacts of the Government’s cuts to NICs and allowing full expensing of some business investments. We have published two papers providing further detail on the modelling behind our analysis below and on the November 2023 EFO page.

Policy costings November 2023

November 2023 All policy costings presented to the Office for Budget Responsibility at Autumn Statement 2023 were scrutinised and were certified as reasonable, central estimates and were included in our forecasts. The Government’s Autumn Statement 2023 policy costings document briefly describes the methodologies underpinning these costings. In our November 2023 Economic and fiscal outlook we…

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March 2024 forecast timetable and details regarding the upcoming EFO

Forecast timetable On 27 December 2023 the Chancellor announced that the Spring Budget 2024 will be held on Wednesday 6 March and commissioned us to publish our latest outlook for the economy and public finances that day. We have now agreed the timetable for the forecast process and published the detail below. Update on 23…

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Year-to-date borrowing moves below our forecast

This morning’s ONS release shows that borrowing in the first nine months of 2023-24 totalled £119.1 billion, £11.1 billion above the same period last year. This is £4.9 billion below the monthly profile consistent with our November forecast, largely due to lower than expected inflation reducing debt interest payments.

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Supplementary forecast information on WCA reforms

Since the publication of our November 2023 Economic and fiscal outlook (EFO) we have received requests for information on our estimates of the number of individuals whose conditionality group will be different as a result of the work capability assessment (WCA) reforms. We have published this new supplementary forecast information below and on the November…

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Spring 2024 forecast date announced

The Chancellor has announced that the Spring Budget will take place on Wednesday 6 March 2024. Our latest outlook for the economy and public finances will be released on the same day. Economic and fiscal outlooks

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Supplementary forecast information on our deposit rate forecast

Since the publication of our November 2023 Economic and fiscal outlook (EFO) we have received requests for further information on our deposit rate forecast. We have published this new supplementary forecast information below and on the November 2023 EFO page.

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So far this year public sector borrowing remains higher than last year

The ONS release this morning shows borrowing in the first eight months of 2023-24 totalled £116.4 billion, £24.4 billion above the same period last year.  In the remainder of the year, we expect borrowing to rise more slowly than last year due primarily to stronger receipts.

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Welsh taxes outlook – December 2023

We have published our forecasts for devolved Welsh taxes in our 2023 Welsh taxes outlook (WTO).  The report is available in English and Welsh language. Welsh taxes outlook – December 2023 Rhagolwg trethi Cymreig – Rhagfyr 2023

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Publication of Working paper No. 21: Developments in devolved income tax

In this paper, we take a comprehensive look at the evolution of the significant and widening gap in the amount of income tax paid per person in Scotland and Wales relative to the UK as a whole, exploring the drivers behind the changes in order to identify trends that should be factored into our devolved…

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Publication of Working paper No.20: A review of welfare policy costings

Since its creation, the OBR has scrutinised over 250 policy costings relating to changes in the benefits and tax credits systems. This paper looks back at how our scrutiny of those policy costings has evolved by reviewing ten case studies of major welfare policy changes taken from the 41 welfare policy announcements made by the…

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Publication of Discussion paper No.4: Next steps for climate change analysis

Over the last five years, the OBR has made great efforts to understand and analyse the fiscal implications of climate change. To date, our analysis has focused primarily on mitigation risks, most notably in the climate change chapter of our 2021 Fiscal risks report (FRR) which provided the UK’s first comprehensive estimate of the fiscal…