Since the publication of our March 2025 Economic and fiscal outlook (EFO) we have received a request for further detail on key fiscal aggregates for our trade scenarios. We have published this new supplementary forecast information below and on the March 2025 EFO page.

The Chancellor has today nominated Richard Hughes as Chair of the OBR for a second and final five-year term of office, subject to the approval of the Treasury Committee of the House of Commons. The OBR’s Chair, alongside other Budget Responsibility Committee (BRC) members, has executive responsibility for the OBR and is responsible for judgements…

We have published monthly profiles for receipts, spending and borrowing in 2025-26, consistent with our March 2025 Economic and fiscal outlook, below and alongside our monthly commentary on the public finances.

Our latest report on Fiscal risks and sustainability (FRS) will be published on Tuesday 8 July. It will be launched at a press conference in Liverpool. The 2025 FRS report will focus on three current pressures on the public finances and provide an update on the risk register: Climate change, where we will update our estimates of…

Since the publication of our October 2024 Economic and fiscal outlook (EFO) we have received a request for further information on our forecast for static costing of the changes to employer National Insurance contributions. We have published this new supplementary forecast information below and on the October 2024 EFO page.

Since the publication of our March 2025 Economic and fiscal outlook (EFO) we have received a request for further information on our forecast for changes in public sector net debt. We have published this new supplementary forecast information below and on the March 2025 EFO page.

This morning’s ONS release provides an initial estimate for 2024-25 public sector net borrowing of £151.9 billion. This is £20.7 billion above the previous year and £14.6 billion above our March forecast. As the ONS state, this initial estimate should be seen as provisional and is typically revised in future. However, the current difference with…

In this paper, we present a new overlapping generations model of the UK economy. It takes a detailed approach to real-world trends around demographics, life-cycle behaviour and differences within and between generations, all in a general equilibrium setting. Calibrated to match UK economic data and reflect key features of our tax, spending and welfare systems,…

Against a more challenging and uncertain outlook than in autumn, we have halved our forecast for economic growth this year from 2 to 1 per cent and lowered the forecast path for the level of productivity. Before accounting for policy, higher debt interest costs and other forecast changes left the current budget in deficit by…

Richard Hughes distils the key messages from our latest Economic and fiscal outlook in his press conference presentation and accompanying speaking note.

On 16 December 2024 the Chancellor commissioned us to publish our latest outlook for the economy and public finances on Wednesday 26 March. We have now agreed the timetable for the forecast process and published the detail below. Update on 12 March: Financial market assumptions and the incorporation of outturn data The final pre-measures fiscal…

We have released additional information on the methodology and assumptions underlying our migration analysis in our 2024 Fiscal risks and sustainability report (FRS). We have published this new supplementary forecast information below and on the September 2024 FRS page.

This morning’s ONS release estimates that borrowing in the first ten months of 2024-25 totalled £118.2 billion. This is £11.6 billion above the same period last year and £12.8 billion above the monthly profile consistent with our October forecast. The year-to-date shortfall against forecast is driven by lower-than-expected receipts, particularly self-assessed tax receipts and corporation…

We have published an update to the Welsh taxes outlook with new forecasts for land transaction tax and landfill disposals tax receipts, alongside evaluations of our previous forecasts including for the Welsh rates of income tax. The report is available in English and Welsh. Welsh taxes outlook – December 2024 Rhagolwg trethi Cymreig – Rhagfyr…

The OBR’s non-executive members commissioned Laura van Geest, former head of the Netherlands Bureau of Economic Policy Analysis (CPB) to lead the third external review of the work of the OBR in May 2024. The review concludes that “Over the last five years, the OBR has successfully navigated a series of unprecedented economic and fiscal…