With the Spring Budget on 6 March, we will not be publishing our usual Public Sector Finances monthly commentary. January’s outturn, including revised PAYE and NIC1 receipts, was incorporated into the Round 2 pre-measures forecast submitted to the Chancellor on 14 February.

In our November 2023 Economic and fiscal outlook (EFO), we analysed the economic impacts of the Government’s cuts to NICs and allowing full expensing of some business investments. We have published two papers providing further detail on the modelling behind our analysis below and on the November 2023 EFO page.

November 2023 All policy costings presented to the Office for Budget Responsibility at Autumn Statement 2023 were scrutinised and were certified as reasonable, central estimates and were included in our forecasts. The Government’s Autumn Statement 2023 policy costings document briefly describes the methodologies underpinning these costings. In our November 2023 Economic and fiscal outlook we…

Forecast timetable On 27 December 2023 the Chancellor announced that the Spring Budget 2024 will be held on Wednesday 6 March and commissioned us to publish our latest outlook for the economy and public finances that day. We have now agreed the timetable for the forecast process and published the detail below. Update on 23…

This morning’s ONS release shows that borrowing in the first nine months of 2023-24 totalled £119.1 billion, £11.1 billion above the same period last year. This is £4.9 billion below the monthly profile consistent with our November forecast, largely due to lower than expected inflation reducing debt interest payments.

Since the publication of our November 2023 Economic and fiscal outlook (EFO) we have received requests for information on our estimates of the number of individuals whose conditionality group will be different as a result of the work capability assessment (WCA) reforms. We have published this new supplementary forecast information below and on the November…

The Chancellor has announced that the Spring Budget will take place on Wednesday 6 March 2024. Our latest outlook for the economy and public finances will be released on the same day. Economic and fiscal outlooks

Since the publication of our November 2023 Economic and fiscal outlook (EFO) we have received requests for further information on our deposit rate forecast. We have published this new supplementary forecast information below and on the November 2023 EFO page.

The ONS release this morning shows borrowing in the first eight months of 2023-24 totalled £116.4 billion, £24.4 billion above the same period last year.  In the remainder of the year, we expect borrowing to rise more slowly than last year due primarily to stronger receipts.

We have published our forecasts for devolved Welsh taxes in our 2023 Welsh taxes outlook (WTO).  The report is available in English and Welsh language. Welsh taxes outlook – December 2023 Rhagolwg trethi Cymreig – Rhagfyr 2023

The Chair of the OBR has written to the Editor of the Sunday Telegraph regarding an article about a member of OBR staff that appeared in their 17 December edition. We have published this letter below.

Since the publication of our November 2023 Economic and fiscal outlook (EFO) we have received requests for further information on our electricity price forecast, National Living Wage assumptions and additional taxpayers by tax rate band. We have published this new supplementary forecast information below and on the November 2023 EFO page.

Richard Hughes distils the key messages from our latest Economic and fiscal outlook in his press conference presentation and accompanying speaking note.

In this paper, we take a comprehensive look at the evolution of the significant and widening gap in the amount of income tax paid per person in Scotland and Wales relative to the UK as a whole, exploring the drivers behind the changes in order to identify trends that should be factored into our devolved…

Since its creation, the OBR has scrutinised over 250 policy costings relating to changes in the benefits and tax credits systems. This paper looks back at how our scrutiny of those policy costings has evolved by reviewing ten case studies of major welfare policy changes taken from the 41 welfare policy announcements made by the…