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March 2023 forecast timetable

On 19 December the Chancellor announced that the Spring Budget 2023 will be held on Wednesday 15 March and commissioned us to publish our latest outlook for the economy and public finances that day. We have now agreed the timetable for the forecast process and published the detail below.

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Forecast evaluation report – January 2023

Our latest Forecast evaluation report (FER) will be published at 11am on Tuesday 31 January. Our FER examines how our forecasts compare to subsequent outturn data and identifies lessons for future forecasts. This report will focus on how our March 2022 and November 2022 economy and fiscal forecasts for 2021-22 fared against the outturns.

Line chart showing cumulative public sector net borrowing

Government support drives record November borrowing

Borrowing in November was £22.0 billion, the highest November figure since monthly records began, largely thanks to a sharp rise in public spending due to the cost of energy and cost-of-living support schemes introduced this year. Borrowing in the first eight months of 2022-23 was £7.8 billion below our November forecast profile published today, largely…

Line chart showing cumulative public sector net borrowing

Budget deficit starts rising again in October

Government borrowing in October 2022 was £13.5 billion, £4.4 billion higher than last year – thanks to the first payments from two energy support schemes for households. But year-to-date borrowing of £84.4 billion is down £21.7 billion (20.5 per cent) on last year – thanks to stronger tax receipts and no spending on Covid schemes,…

Overview of the November 2022 Economic and fiscal outlook

Over the past six months, the global energy and food supply shocks emanating from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine have intensified. The further curtailment of Russian imports saw European wholesale gas prices rise ten-fold from pre-pandemic levels, and markets now expect prices to remain four times higher in the medium term. Rising energy, food, and other…