The Chancellor has commissioned the OBR to produce our next forecast on Tuesday 3 March 2026. We will publish an updated Economic and fiscal outlook on that day.

Richard Hughes has written to the Chancellor of the Exchequer and Chair of the Treasury Select Committee to submit his resignation as Chair of the Office for Budget Responsibility. His letter of resignation is available below.

The OBR inadvertently made it possible to access the November 2025 Economic and fiscal outlook (EFO) too early on Budget day. We launched an immediate investigation into what happened which has reported today, Monday 1 December. The full report is available below.

OBR Chair Richard Hughes has written to both the Chancellor and the Chair of the Commons Treasury Committee apologising for the fact that the OBR inadvertently made it possible to access the November 2025 Economic and fiscal outlook too early on 26 November.  

Richard Hughes distils the key messages from our latest Economic and fiscal outlook in his press conference presentation and accompanying speaking note.  

In this paper, published alongside the November 2025 Economic and fiscal outlook, we outline our approach to forecasting UK productivity growth. It reviews the UK’s productivity performance from historical and international perspectives as well as the outlook for productivity. The paper also sets out our central forecast and alternative scenarios.

In this paper, published alongside the November 2025 Economic and fiscal outlook, we review our approach to accounting for the supply-side impacts of policy in our forecast. We have taken a more transparent approach to incorporating such effects over the past three years and this paper further adds to that, as recommended in our third…

A link to our Economic and fiscal outlook document went live on our website too early this morning. It has been removed. We apologise for this technical error and have initiated an investigation into how this happened. We will be reporting to our Oversight Board, the Treasury, and the Commons Treasury Committee on how this…

On 3 September 2025 the Chancellor commissioned us to publish our latest outlook for the economy and public finances on Wednesday 26 November. We have now agreed the timetable for the forecast process and published the detail below. Update on 14 November: Financial market assumptions and the incorporation of outturn data The window in which…

We have published an update to the Welsh taxes outlook with new forecasts for land transaction tax and landfill disposals tax receipts. The report is available in English and Welsh. Rhagolwg trethi Cymru – diweddariad Hydref 2025 Rydym wedi cyhoeddi diweddariad i ragolygon trethi Cymru gyda rhagolygon newydd ar gyfer derbyniadau treth trafodion tir a threth…

This morning’s ONS release estimates that borrowing in the first five months of 2025-26 totalled £83.8 billion. This is £16.2 billion above the same period last year and £11.4 billion above the monthly profile consistent with our March forecast. The overshoot in this month’s estimates compared to our March forecast profile is primarily due to…

We have published our updated tax and spending ‘ready reckoner’ consistent with our March 2025 Economic and fiscal outlook. Our ready reckoner allows anyone to obtain quick, indicative estimates of the fiscal impact of a particular change in one or more economic variables. Read our article on the ready reckoner to find out more.

The Chancellor has announced that the Budget will take place on Wednesday 26 November 2025. Our latest outlook for the economy and public finances will be released on the same day.

This morning’s ONS release estimates that borrowing in the first four months of 2025-26 totalled £60.0 billion. This is £6.7 billion above the same period last year and in line with the monthly profile consistent with our March forecast, with both accrued receipts and spending close to the March forecast profile.

This morning’s ONS release estimates that borrowing in the first three months of 2025-26 totalled £57.8 billion. This is £7.5 billion above the same period last year, which is exactly in line with our March forecast monthly profile. Central government receipts and spending are both broadly in line with the forecast profile. These initial outturn…