Other news

efo icon

Forecast timetable to 31 October published

On 10 October the Chancellor announced that the publication of our forecast will be brought forward to Monday 31 October. That day we will publish our latest outlook for the economy and public finances. In light of the heightened public interest, and in response to the recommendations of our Non-Executive Members’ recent review of the forecast…

BRC meeting with Prime Minister and Chancellor

OBR meeting with the Prime Minister and Chancellor

The OBR’s Budget Responsibility Committee met with the Prime Minister and Chancellor this morning. We discussed the economic and fiscal outlook and the forecast we are preparing for the Chancellor’s Medium-term Fiscal Plan. We will deliver the first iteration of that forecast to the Chancellor on Friday 7 October and will set out the full…

letter in envelope icon

Exchange of letters between Mel Stride MP and Richard Hughes

In August the Chair of the Treasury Select Committee, Mel Stride MP and Chair Richard Hughes exchanged letters regarding the OBR’s preparations for a potential Emergency Budget. Richard Hughes has now updated Mel Stride on the 23 November forecast timetable.

efo icon

Next steps in the November 2022 forecast

The Chancellor has commissioned the OBR to publish an updated forecast on 23 November alongside the Medium-Term Fiscal Plan. As part of every forecasting process, we provide the Chancellor with a series of interim drafts of our forecasts as an input into policymaking in the run-up to the final, published Economic and fiscal outlook. The Chancellor…

bar chart in document icon

Supplementary forecast information release

Since the publication of our March 2022 Economic and fiscal outlook (EFO) we have received a request for further information into our forecast of income streams subject to self-assessment income tax. We have published this new supplementary forecast information below and on the March 2022 EFO page.

letter in envelope icon

Exchange of letters between Mel Stride MP and Richard Hughes

The Chair of the Treasury Select Committee, Mel Stride MP wrote to our Chair Richard Hughes on 23 August regarding the OBR’s preparations for a potential Emergency Budget in September. The Chair replied to his letter on 26 August. We have published both of these letters below. Richard Hughes updated Mel Stride on 29 September about…

Line chart showing cumulative public sector net borrowing

Debt interest and support for energy bills add to borrowing

The budget deficit continues to fall year on year, with April-to-July borrowing of £55.0 billion down £12.1 billion on last year. But it was £3.0 billion above our March forecast profile, largely reflecting higher spending. Sharp rises in inflation continue to raise debt interest costs by even more than our forecast assumed, while the cost-of-living…

Line chart showing cumulative public sector net borrowing

Higher inflation delivers record debt interest spending

The budget deficit continues to fall year on year, with April-to-June borrowing of £55.4 billion down £5.7 billion on last year. But it was £3.7 billion above our most recent forecast profile, largely reflecting higher spending, alongside modestly lower receipts. Debt interest spending hit a record high – for both the single month of June…

Overview for FRS

Overview of the July 2022 Fiscal risks and sustainability

In little more than two years, the UK economy and public finances have felt the consequences of a global health crisis caused by Covid-19, a global security crisis sparked by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and a global energy crisis brought about by both. In a little over a decade, we have also felt the economic…

Cumulative public sector net borrowing

Higher inflation pushes debt interest spending up sharply

The budget deficit continued to fall in May, with year-to-date borrowing of £35.9 billion down £6.4 billion on last year. But it was £6.4 billion above our most recent forecast profile. This overshoot reflects both lower receipts and higher spending – with debt interest spending in the year to date a fifth higher than forecast…