Year-to-date borrowing higher than forecast

Borrowing in the first three months of 2024-25 was £49.8 billion, £1.1 billion below the same period last year but £3.2 billion above our forecast profile. This was largely driven by highly provisional data on departmental spending returns, particularly for consumption expenditure which is £4.6 billion higher than forecast. Receipts in the first three months of 2024-25 have also been lower than expected, though by a relatively small margin of £1.7 billion or 0.7 per cent, in large part reflecting a £1.1 billion shortfall in VAT receipts. These differences were partially offset by local authorities’ borrowing coming in £3.4 billion below profile.