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Box sets » GDP by expenditure » Net trade

Economic and fiscal outlook - March 2022 | Box: 2.6 | Page: 62

The latest evidence on the impact of Brexit on UK trade

Chart 2.H: EU and non-EU goods and services trade
Our March 2022 EFO was published just over a year since the end of the transition period. In this box, we presented the latest evidence for the impact of Brexit on UK trade and considered the UK's recent trade performance relative to other advanced economies.

Economy categories: Net trade

Cross-cutting categories: Brexit and the EU

Fiscal risks and sustainability - July 2022 | Box: 2.3 | Page: 58

Why interconnection matters for the economy

There are signs that global economic integration has stalled in recent years on some measures and reversed on others. This box discussed the implications of integration for the economy and public finances.

Economy categories: GDP by expenditure, Net trade, Current account balance, Trade balance

Economic and fiscal outlook - October 2021 | Box: 2.5 | Page: 58

The initial impact of Brexit on UK trade with the EU

Chart 2.E: EU and non-EU goods trade
On 1 January 2021 some, but not all, of the provisions of the Trade and Cooperation Agreement came into effect following the UK's departure from the EU. In this box we looked at the initial impact of the new regime on UK trade patterns. We also considered whether the data was consistent with our assumption that Brexit will eventually reduce UK imports and exports by 15 per cent.

Economy categories: Net trade

Cross-cutting categories: Brexit and the EU

Economic and fiscal outlook - March 2021 | Box: 2.2 | Page: 34

Impact of the Brexit trade agreement on our economy forecast

Chart B: Number of heavy goods vehicles on roads around Dover
On 24 December, four and a half years after the EU referendum, the UK and the European Union concluded the Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA). This box compared the provisions of the TCA against our previous broad-brush assumption that UK-EU trade would take place under the terms of a ‘typical’ free-trade agreement. It also discusses the initial evidence regarding its short-term impact.

Economy categories: Productivity, Net trade

Cross-cutting categories: Brexit and the EU

Economic and fiscal outlook - October 2018 | Box: 3.5 | Page: 77

UK exports as a share of GDP

UK exports as a share of GDP
In August 2018 the Government announced an ambition to increase the UK's exports to 35 per cent of GDP. In this box we explored the drivers of previous changes in the exports-to-GDP ratio and how we expect it to change in our October 2018 forecast.

Economy categories: GDP by expenditure, Net trade

Economic and fiscal outlook - March 2018 | Box: 2.1 | Page: 26

Post-referendum forecast judgements

Post-referendum forecast judgements
In the November 2016 EFO we made a number of judgements about how the vote to leave the EU would effect the economy in the near-term. This box from our March 2018 EFO compared these judgements against the outturn data that we had received since then, finding that most of these judgements were broadly on track.

Economy categories: Business investment, Net trade, Population and migration, Household consumption, Labour market, GDP by expenditure, Inflation

Cross-cutting categories: Brexit and the EU

Economic and fiscal outlook - March 2018 | Box: 3.3 | Page: 73

The effect of trade intensity on productivity

Our first post-EU referendum forecast in November 2016 assumed that leaving the EU would result in a less open economy and lower productivity, but we did not incorporate an explicit link between the two over our medium-term forecast horizon. This box from our March 2018 EFO discusses why we did not include this link and what other forecasters have assumed.

Economy categories: GDP by expenditure, Business investment, Productivity, Net trade, Labour market

Cross-cutting categories: Brexit and the EU

Economic and fiscal outlook - November 2016 | Box: 3.1 | Page: 46

Possible effects on potential output of the UK leaving the EU

In our November 2016 forecast, our first following the June 2016 referendum, we revised down our potential growth forecast, primarily reflecting the effect of weaker business investment on productivity growth. To give some context to our central forecast judgements, this box outlined a number of channels through which the decision to leave the EU could affect potential output and the uncertainty associated with estimating these effects.

Economy categories: Population and migration, Labour market, GDP by expenditure, Business investment, Net trade, Potential output

Cross-cutting categories: Brexit and the EU

Economic and fiscal outlook - November 2016 | Box: 3.4 | Page: 83

Recent trends in UK trade

Recent trends in UK trade
Following the June 2016 referendum result, we made a number of broad assumptions about the likely impact on trade, based on the average effects estimated in external studies. Given the importance of these assumptions, we looked at some past trends in this area, including the geographic composition and the relative importance of goods and services trade. We also set out some of the drivers of changes in exports as a share of GDP since 1999 and discussed the possible effects of trade on UK businesses and households.

Economy categories: GDP by expenditure, Net trade

Economic and fiscal outlook - November 2015 | Box: 3.4 | Page: 77

The under-performance of nominal exports of goods and services

The under-performance of nominal exports of goods and services
At Budget 2012, the Government stated its aspiration to increase the value of UK exports to £1 trillion by 2020. This box outlined the main drivers of export growth in our November 2015 Economic and fiscal outlook and the implications for our forecast relative to the Government's aspiration.

Economy categories: GDP by expenditure, Net trade

Economic and fiscal outlook - December 2014 | Box: 3.3 | Page: 85

Contributions to UK net trade

Contributions to UK net trade
This box decomposed the net trade contribution to GDP growth into its various drivers, to illustrate the sources of the negative contribution in the seven years before the late-2000s recession, the positive contribution in the seven years after the recession and the negative contribution in the December 2014 forecast.

Economy categories: GDP by expenditure, Net trade, Real GDP

Economic and fiscal outlook - December 2013 | Box: 3.4 | Page: 64

Car consumption and production

Car consumption and production
Spending on cars in the UK has grown strongly, accounting for nearly a third of household consumption growth since the third quarter of 2011. This growth was facilitated by car finance, which contributed to strong growth in unsecured credit. This box showed trends in domestic share of car production and contribution of domestic and imported cars to household consumption growth over time. Together, they showed that while domestic car consumption was a good indicator of consumer confidence, and car trade in isolation helped reduce the UK's trade deficit, the overall effect on the economy was less positive.

Economy categories: GDP by expenditure, Net trade, Household consumption, Current account balance, Trade balance

Economic and fiscal outlook - March 2013 | Box: 2.1 | Page: 23

Rewriting history: the trade balance after sterling depreciations

Rewriting history: the trade balance after sterling depreciations

Economy categories: GDP by expenditure, Economic data revisions, Net trade, Current account balance, Trade balance

Cross-cutting categories: Data revisions

Economic and fiscal outlook - March 2013 | Box: 3.4 | Page: 66

UK export markets

UK export markets
Exports fell during 2012, partly reflecting lower growth in UK export markets and a rise in sterling, although part of that fall was unexplained. This box looked at some past trends in the composition of exports to offer some explanation for that weakness, highlighting in particular the fall in financial services exports, and compared this against trends seen in the US.

Economy categories: GDP by expenditure, Net trade

Cross-cutting categories: Financial sector

Economic and fiscal outlook - November 2011 | Box: 2.2 | Page: 28

Lower-than-expected growth in 2010-11

Lower-than-expected growth in 2010-11
UK GDP had grown less quickly in 2010-11 than the OBR forecast in June 2010. This box decomposed the forecast error by expenditure component and discussed possible explanations, including the external inflation shock.

Economy categories: GDP by expenditure, Government consumption, Business investment, Residential investment, Net trade, Household consumption, Oil prices, Nominal GDP

Economic and fiscal outlook - November 2011 | Box: 3.3 | Page: 62

Risks to the forecast from the euro area crisis

Risks to the forecast from the euro area crisis
In the years following the financial crisis the euro area faced a sovereign debt crisis characterised by high government debt, poor confidence in sovereign solvency and rising risk premiums on government securities. This box considered the main channels through which an intensification of the crisis could affect the UK economy, including weaker trade, tighter credit conditions, higher domestic government borrowing costs and possible financial system impairment.

Economy categories: GDP by expenditure, Net trade

Cross-cutting categories: Financial sector

Economic and fiscal outlook - November 2010 | Box: 3.5 | Page: 54

Developments in Ireland

In 2010 Ireland’s sovereign debt markets had effectively closed and interest rates rose to record levels as it sought international financial assistance from the IMF and EU. This box considered the potential implications of this for our forecast, including reductions in trade, risks relating to the UK banking sector's exposure to Ireland, and higher UK interest rates resulting from widespread uncertainty in bond markets.

Economy categories: GDP by expenditure, Net trade

Cross-cutting categories: Financial sector, Financial interventions

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