Box sets » Forecast evaluation

Chart 2.A: Change in level of output relative to January 2020 by sector
One of the unique features of the coronavirus shock was its extraordinary degree of sectoral differentiation. In this box, we explored the accuracy of our sectoral forecasts and considered the key drivers of forecast errors.

Economy categories: GDP by output

Cross-cutting categories: Coronavirus

Chart 3.A: Changes in pay and tax receipts across the employee earnings distribution between 2019-20 and 2020-21
The impact of the pandemic and the national lockdowns has not been equal across the earnings distribution. While it was expected that income tax receipts would be significantly impacted, this box showed that the growth in receipts from higher earners has more than outweighed the fall in receipts from the lowest earners.

Fiscal categories: Receipts, Income tax

Cross-cutting categories: Coronavirus

Chart 3.C: HMRC tax debt balance
The Government introduced several tax deferral policies in response to the pandemic in an attempt to mitigate the strain on businesses. This box provided an update of the impact of those policies, and the level of tax debt still owed.

Fiscal categories: Tax debt

Cross-cutting categories: Coronavirus