Box sets » Forecast evaluation report - December 2021

One of the unique features of the coronavirus shock was its extraordinary degree of sectoral differentiation. In this box, we explored the accuracy of our sectoral forecasts and considered the key drivers of forecast errors.

Economy categories: GDP by output

Cross-cutting categories: Coronavirus

The impact of the pandemic and the national lockdowns has not been equal across the earnings distribution. While it was expected that income tax receipts would be significantly impacted, this box showed that the growth in receipts from higher earners has more than outweighed the fall in receipts from the lowest earners.

Fiscal categories: Receipts, Income tax

Cross-cutting categories: Coronavirus

The Government introduced several tax deferral policies in response to the pandemic in an attempt to mitigate the strain on businesses. This box provided an update of the impact of those policies, and the level of tax debt still owed.

Fiscal categories: Tax debt

Cross-cutting categories: Coronavirus