Skip to main content
Office for Budget Responsibility

"It is the duty of the Office to examine and report on the sustainability of the public finances"

MENUMENU
  • Publications
      • Medium-term forecasts
      • Fiscal risks and long-term projections
      • Forecast evaluation
      • Welfare spending trends
      • Monthly commentary
      • Devolution
      • Other releases
      • Papers
  • In-depth
    • Tax by tax, spend by spend
    • The economy forecast
    • Policy costings
    • Brexit analysis
    • Brief guides and explainers
    • Forecast process and papers
    • OBR macroeconomic model
    • Box sets
  • Data
  • News
  • About
    • What we do
    • Who we are
    • Legislation and related material
    • External reviews
    • Working with Government
    • International engagement
    • Vacancies
  • FAQs
  • Contact
23 November 2016

Economic and fiscal outlook – November 2016

Our latest Economic and fiscal outlook was published on 23 November 2016. It sets out forecasts for the economy and the public finances, and an assessment of whether the Government is likely to achieve its fiscal mandate and supplementary target.

Economic and fiscal outlook overview – November 2016

pdf

Economic and fiscal outlook - November 2016

November 23, 2016 – 2.37 MB

youtube logo  Watch the presentation

At a glance

Forecast in pictures
at a glance gdp growth graphics
at a glance borrowing charts
Performance against the fiscal targets checklist

Supporting documents

  • pdf

    Executive Summary - November 2016

    November 23, 2016 – 241.46 KB
  • xlsx

    Economic and fiscal outlook charts and tables: Fiscal - November 2016

    November 23, 2016 – 1.08 MB

    Chapter 4, 5 and Annexes

  • xlsx

    Economic and fiscal outlook charts and tables: Economy - November 2016

    November 23, 2016 – 2.33 MB

    Chapter 1, 2 and 3

  • xlsx

    Economic and fiscal outlook supplementary fiscal tables: expenditure - November 2016

    November 23, 2016 – 322.86 KB
  • xlsx

    Economic and fiscal outlook supplementary fiscal tables: receipts and other - November 2016

    November 23, 2016 – 340.37 KB
  • xlsx

    Economic and fiscal outlook supplementary economy tables - November 2016

    November 23, 2016 – 342.76 KB
  • pdf

    Economic and fiscal outlook press notice - November 2016

    November 23, 2016 – 106.26 KB
  • pdf

    Devolved taxes forecast - November 2016

    November 23, 2016 – 520.32 KB
  • pdf

    Log of substantive contact between the OBR and Treasury Ministers, Special Advisers and their private office staff between 16 March 2016 and 22 November 2016

    November 23, 2016 – 53.46 KB
  • pdf

    Long-term economic determinants

    November 23, 2016 – 70.83 KB
  • pdf

    Letter from Sir Dave Ramsden to Robert Chote on pre-release access to November 2016 Economic and fiscal outlook

    November 30, 2016 – 527.28 KB
  • pdf

    Letter from Robert Chote to Sir Dave Ramsden on pre-release access to November 2016 Economic and fiscal outlook

    November 30, 2016 – 37.41 KB
  • xlsx

    Data sources - November 2016

    December 14, 2016 – 74.68 KB

Supplementary documents

Information or data which has been released as a result of external requests, since the original publication of the main document.

  • xlsx

    Alternative productivity scenarios - November 2016 Economic and fiscal outlook

    March 8, 2017 – 120.77 KB
  • pdf

    Oil and gas receipts forecast changes diagnostic - November 2016 Economic and fiscal outlook

    December 8, 2016 – 56.96 KB
  • pdf

    Further decomposition of the referendum counterfactual - November 2016 Economic and fiscal outlook

    December 8, 2016 – 102.54 KB
  • pdf

    Devolved tax forecasts supplementary release - November 2016 Economic and fiscal outlook

    November 30, 2016 – 70.46 KB

Presentations

  • pdf

    Economic and fiscal outlook speaking notes - November 2016

    November 23, 2016 – 200.55 KB
  • pdf

    Economic and fiscal outlook presentation slides - November 2016

    November 23, 2016 – 419.92 KB

Previous forecasts

  Previous forecast
Next forecast  

Publications

  • Economic and fiscal outlook
  • Fiscal risks and long-term projections
  • Forecast evaluation report
  • Welfare trends report
  • Monthly public finance release
  • Brief guides and explainers
  • Box sets
  • All other publications

Boxes

Within each of our key publications we include topical ‘boxes’. These self-contained analyses are unique to this publication and tend to cover recent developments in the economy or public finances that complement the main discussion of our analyses.

Economic and fiscal outlook - November 2016 | Box: 3.1 | Page: 46

Possible effects on potential output of the UK leaving the EU

In our November 2016 forecast, our first following the June 2016 referendum, we revised down our potential growth forecast, primarily reflecting the effect of weaker business investment on productivity growth. To give some context to our central forecast judgements, this box outlined a number of channels through which the decision to leave the EU could affect potential output and the uncertainty associated with estimating these effects.

Economy categories: Business investment, Net trade, Potential output, Population and migration, Labour market, GDP by expenditure

Cross-cutting categories: Brexit and the EU

Economic and fiscal outlook - November 2016 | Box: 3.2 | Page: 50

The economic effects of policy measures

In each Economic and fiscal outlook we publish a box that summarises the effects of the Government’s new policy measures on our economy forecast. These include the overall effect of the package of measures and any specific effects of individual measures that we deem to be sufficiently material to have wider indirect effects on the economy. In our November 2016 Economic and Fiscal Outlook, economy forecast adjustments included the effects of looser fiscal policy on GDP and the effects of tax policy changes on inflation.

Economy categories: Inflation, Residential investment, Housing market, GDP by expenditure

Fiscal categories: Receipts, Insurance premium tax, Housing associations, Fuel duty

Economic and fiscal outlook - November 2016 | Box: 3.3 | Page: 74

Forecasting mortgage debt

Forecasting mortgage debt
Before November 2016, our forecasts for mortgage debt (secured debt) were based on forecasts for mortgage demand and supply, as the determined by relationships in our house price model. In light of systematic forecast errors, this box outlined changes to our methodology for forecasting mortgage debt, which moved to an approach based on an accumulation identity.

Economy categories: GDP by expenditure, Residential investment, Household balance sheet

Cross-cutting categories: Forecast process

Economic and fiscal outlook - November 2016 | Box: 3.4 | Page: 83

Recent trends in UK trade

Recent trends in UK trade
Following the June 2016 referendum result, we made a number of broad assumptions about the likely impact on trade, based on the average effects estimated in external studies. Given the importance of these assumptions, we looked at some past trends in this area, including the geographic composition and the relative importance of goods and services trade. We also set out some of the drivers of changes in exports as a share of GDP since 1999 and discussed the possible effects of trade on UK businesses and households.

Economy categories: Net trade, GDP by expenditure

Economic and fiscal outlook - November 2016 | Box: 4.1 | Page: 121

The effect of incorporations on tax receipts

The effect of incorporations on tax receipts
Our PAYE, SA, NICs and corporation tax (CT) forecasts are affected by our assumption that incorporations will continue their rising trend. This box covered historical estimates, the modelling of the receipts effects from incorporations and the implications for the forecast.

Fiscal categories: Corporation tax, Receipts, National Insurance Contributions, VAT, Income tax

Economic and fiscal outlook - November 2016 | Box: 4.2 | Page: 126

New National Accounts accruals methodology for corporation tax

The ONS announced that it would implement a new accruals methodology for corporation tax (CT) early in 2017. This box outlined in detail the changes to the ONS methodology.

Fiscal categories: Receipts, Corporation tax

Economic and fiscal outlook - November 2016 | Box: 4.3 | Page: 130

Fuel duty rates and policy risks to our forecast

Fuel duty rates and policy risks to our forecast
Our fuel duty receipts forecast combines our underlying forecast assumptions about the amount of fuel that will be purchased and the Government’s stated policies on the fuel duty rates that will be levied on those purchases. This box outlined the changes in fuel duty and policy assumptions since 2010.

Fiscal categories: Receipts, Fuel duty, Corporation tax

Economic and fiscal outlook - November 2016 | Box: 4.4 | Page: 160

External views on the possible scope of Brexit negotiations

The UK currently makes a substantial net financial contribution to the activities of the European Union. This box outlined the historical liabilities and other commitments entered into that officials, institutions and MEPs were said to be arguing that the UK should pay a share of, in light of Brexit. The box also listed government policy commitments to fund spending in certain areas where EU funding would be withdrawn.

Fiscal categories: Public spending

Cross-cutting categories: External forecasts, Brexit and the EU

Economic and fiscal outlook - November 2016 | Box: 4.5 | Page: 186

Institute for Fiscal Studies’ outlook for the public finances: a comparison

Institute for Fiscal Studies’ outlook for the public finances: a comparison
Ahead of the Chancellor’s Autumn Statement and our November 2016 Economic and fiscal outlook, the Institute for Fiscal Studies published an assessment of the outlook for the public finances. In this box, we described the differences between our new pre-measures forecast and that assessment.

Fiscal categories: Public sector net borrowing

Cross-cutting categories: External forecasts

Economic and fiscal outlook – March 2016
Economic and fiscal outlook – March 2017

Publications

  • Economic and fiscal outlook
  • Fiscal risks and long-term projections
  • Forecast evaluation report
  • Welfare trends report
  • Monthly public finance release
  • Devolution
  • All other publications

Forecasts in-depth

  • Tax by tax, spend by spend
  • The economy forecast
  • Policy costings
  • Brief guides and explainers
  • Brexit analysis
  • Forecast process and papers
  • OBR macroeconomic model
  • Box sets

About the OBR

  • What we do
  • Who we are
  • Legislation and related material
  • External reviews
  • International engagement
  • Working with Government
  • Vacancies

Transparency

  • Governance and reporting
  • Letters
  • Requests for information
  • Evidence to parliaments
  • Press notices and presentations
Follow us on Twitter, this link opens in a new window Subscribe to our YouTube Channel, this link opens in a new window Connect with us on LinkedIn, this link opens in a new window
  • Accessibility statement
  • Privacy Policy
  • Cookie Policy
  • Copyright
  • Contact us
Manage cookie settings

© 2023 Office for Budget Responsibility

14T, 102 Petty France, London SW1H 9AJ
[email protected]

This website uses cookies to improve your experience. We'll assume you're ok with this, but you can opt-out if you wish. Read MoreCookie settingsRejectAccept
Cookie Policy

Privacy Overview

This website uses cookies to improve your experience while you navigate through the website. Out of these cookies, the cookies that are categorized as necessary are stored on your browser as they are essential for the working of basic functionalities of the website. We also use third-party cookies that help us analyze and understand how you use this website. These cookies will be stored in your browser only with your consent. You also have the option to opt-out of these cookies. But opting out of some of these cookies may have an effect on your browsing experience.
Necessary
Always Enabled
Necessary cookies are absolutely essential for the website to function properly. These cookies ensure basic functionalities and security features of the website, anonymously.
CookieDurationDescription
JSESSIONIDsessionUsed by sites written in JSP. General purpose platform session cookies that are used to maintain users' state across page requests.
viewed_cookie_policy1 yearThe cookie is set by the GDPR Cookie Consent plugin and is used to store whether or not user has consented to the use of cookies. It does not store any personal data.
__cfduid1 monthThe cookie is used by cdn services like CloudFare to identify individual clients behind a shared IP address and apply security settings on a per-client basis. It does not correspond to any user ID in the web application and does not store any personally identifiable information.
Others
Other uncategorized cookies are those that are being analyzed and have not been classified into a category as yet.
CookieDurationDescription
CONSENT16 years 8 monthsNo description
cookielawinfo-checkbox-advertising-cookies1 yearNo description
cookielawinfo-checkbox-first-party-cookies1 yearNo description
cookielawinfo-checkbox-functional-cookies1 yearNo description
cookielawinfo-checkbox-performance-cookies1 yearNo description
cookielawinfo-checkbox-persistent-cookies1 yearNo description
cookielawinfo-checkbox-session-cookies1 yearNo description
cookielawinfo-checkbox-strictly-necessary-cookies1 yearNo description
cookielawinfo-checkbox-third-party-cookies1 yearNo description
tableau_localesessionNo description
tableau_public_negotiated_localesessionNo description
_gat_gtag_UA_41824266_11 minuteNo description
Analytics
Analytical cookies are used to understand how visitors interact with the website. These cookies help provide information on metrics the number of visitors, bounce rate, traffic source, etc.
CookieDurationDescription
_ga2 yearsThis cookie is installed by Google Analytics. The cookie is used to calculate visitor, session, campaign data and keep track of site usage for the site's analytics report. The cookies store information anonymously and assign a randomly generated number to identify unique visitors.
_gid1 dayThis cookie is installed by Google Analytics. The cookie is used to store information of how visitors use a website and helps in creating an analytics report of how the website is doing. The data collected including the number visitors, the source where they have come from, and the pages visted in an anonymous form.
Performance
Performance cookies are used to understand and analyze the key performance indexes of the website which helps in delivering a better user experience for the visitors.
CookieDurationDescription
YSCsessionThis cookies is set by Youtube and is used to track the views of embedded videos.
__utma2 yearsThis cookie is set by Google Analytics and is used to distinguish users and sessions. The cookie is created when the JavaScript library executes and there are no existing __utma cookies. The cookie is updated every time data is sent to Google Analytics.
__utmb30 minutesThe cookie is set by Google Analytics. The cookie is used to determine new sessions/visits. The cookie is created when the JavaScript library executes and there are no existing __utma cookies. The cookie is updated every time data is sent to Google Analytics.
__utmcsessionThe cookie is set by Google Analytics and is deleted when the user closes the browser. The cookie is not used by ga.js. The cookie is used to enable interoperability with urchin.js which is an older version of Google analytics and used in conjunction with the __utmb cookie to determine new sessions/visits.
__utmt10 minutesThe cookie is set by Google Analytics and is used to throttle request rate.
__utmz6 monthsThis cookie is set by Google analytics and is used to store the traffic source or campaign through which the visitor reached your site.
Save & Accept
Powered by CookieYes Logo