Skip to main content
Office for Budget Responsibility

"It is the duty of the Office to examine and report on the sustainability of the public finances"

MENUMENU
  • Publications
      • Medium-term forecasts
      • Fiscal risks and long-term projections
      • Forecast evaluation
      • Welfare spending trends
      • Monthly commentary
      • Devolution
      • Other releases
      • Papers
  • In-depth
    • Tax by tax, spend by spend
    • The economy forecast
    • Policy costings
    • Brexit analysis
    • Brief guides and explainers
    • Forecast process and papers
    • OBR macroeconomic model
    • Box sets
  • Data
  • News
  • About
    • What we do
    • Who we are
    • Legislation and related material
    • External reviews
    • Working with Government
    • International engagement
    • Vacancies
  • FAQs
  • Contact
10 October 2017

Forecast evaluation report – October 2017

Our annual Forecast evaluation report (FER), published each autumn, examines how our forecasts compare to subsequent outturn data and identifies lessons for future forecasts.

pdf

Forecast evaluation report – October 2017

October 10, 2017 – 2.92 MB

Supporting documents

  • pdf

    Forecast evaluation report October 2017 – Executive Summary

    October 10, 2017 – 2.21 MB
  • xlsx

    Forecast evaluation report October 2017 – charts and tables

    October 10, 2017 – 2.33 MB
  • pdf

    Forecast evaluation report October 2017 – Press notice

    October 10, 2017 – 91.12 KB
  • pdf

    Briefing paper No.7: Evaluating forecast accuracy

    October 10, 2017 – 325.53 KB
  • pdf

    Model assessment database

    October 10, 2017 – 146.10 KB

Supplementary documents

Information or data which has been released as a result of external requests, since the original publication of the main document.

  • pdf

    Residential stamp duty land tax elasticities - Forecast evaluation report October 2017

    October 10, 2017 – 60.88 KB

Presentations

  • pdf

    Forecast evaluation report October 2017 – press conference slides

    October 5, 2017 – 260.14 KB
  • pdf

    Forecast evaluation report October 2017 – speaking notes

    October 5, 2017 – 483.21 KB

Previous reports

  Previous report
Next report  

Publications

  • Economic and fiscal outlook
  • Fiscal risks and long-term projections
  • Forecast evaluation report
  • Welfare trends report
  • Monthly public finance release
  • Brief guides and explainers
  • Box sets
  • All other publications

Boxes

Within each of our key publications we include topical ‘boxes’. These self-contained analyses are unique to this publication and tend to cover recent developments in the economy or public finances that complement the main discussion of our analyses.

Forecast evaluation report - October 2017 | Box: 2.1 | Page: 18

Blue Book 2017 and dividend income

Blue Book 2017 and dividend income
In recent years there has been a significant increase in the number of people setting themselves up as single-director companies (‘incorporations’), implying an increase in the share of household income received as dividends. ONS estimates of households dividend income were revised significantly as part of Blue Book 2017, and better capture this rise in incorporations. This box discussed the implications of these revisions, which implied a much higher level of household disposable income and household saving than previous estimates.

Economy categories: Sector net lending, Household saving ratio, Household disposable income, Household consumption

Cross-cutting categories: Data revisions, Blue Book

Forecast evaluation report - October 2017 | Box: 2.2 | Page: 25

Fiscal policy and growth

Fiscal policy and growth
Over the past six years there has been a large discretionary fiscal tightening in the UK. This box set out estimates of the effect of fiscal policy changes on GDP growth, based on estimates of the consolidation produced by the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) together with estimates of fiscal multipliers, which are drawn from the available empirical literature. The box also considered how changes in discretionary fiscal policy compared with our forecast errors for GDP growth.

Economy categories: Real GDP

Cross-cutting categories: Fiscal multipliers, External forecasts

Forecast evaluation report - October 2017 | Box: 3.1 | Page: 44

Revisions to borrowing in 2016-17

Revisions to borrowing in 2016-17
Initial estimates of the deficit can be revised significantly over subsequent months as more reliable data become available. This box set out how our forecasts during 2016 and 2017 evolved and how the outturns for 2016-17 were revised over time.

Fiscal categories: Departmental spending, National Insurance Contributions, VAT, Public sector net borrowing, Income tax, Corporation tax

Forecast evaluation report - October 2017 | Box: 3.2 | Page: 48

The receipts-to-GDP ratio since 1986-87

The receipts-to-GDP ratio since 1986-87
Strong overall receipts growth in 2016-17 took receipts as a share of GDP to their highest since 1986-87. This box explored how the composition of the public sector’s income has changed over the three decades since receipts were last at the latest share of GDP.

Fiscal categories: Receipts, National Insurance Contributions, VAT, Income tax, Corporation tax

Forecast evaluation report – October 2016
Forecast evaluation report – December 2018

Publications

  • Economic and fiscal outlook
  • Fiscal risks and long-term projections
  • Forecast evaluation report
  • Welfare trends report
  • Monthly public finance release
  • Devolution
  • All other publications

Forecasts in-depth

  • Tax by tax, spend by spend
  • The economy forecast
  • Policy costings
  • Brief guides and explainers
  • Brexit analysis
  • Forecast process and papers
  • OBR macroeconomic model
  • Box sets

About the OBR

  • What we do
  • Who we are
  • Legislation and related material
  • External reviews
  • International engagement
  • Working with Government
  • Vacancies

Transparency

  • Governance and reporting
  • Letters
  • Requests for information
  • Evidence to parliaments
  • Press notices and presentations
Follow us on Twitter, this link opens in a new window Subscribe to our YouTube Channel, this link opens in a new window Connect with us on LinkedIn, this link opens in a new window
  • Accessibility statement
  • Privacy Policy
  • Cookie Policy
  • Copyright
  • Contact us
Manage cookie settings

© 2023 Office for Budget Responsibility

14T, 102 Petty France, London SW1H 9AJ
[email protected]

This website uses cookies to improve your experience. We'll assume you're ok with this, but you can opt-out if you wish. Read MoreCookie settingsRejectAccept
Cookie Policy

Privacy Overview

This website uses cookies to improve your experience while you navigate through the website. Out of these cookies, the cookies that are categorized as necessary are stored on your browser as they are essential for the working of basic functionalities of the website. We also use third-party cookies that help us analyze and understand how you use this website. These cookies will be stored in your browser only with your consent. You also have the option to opt-out of these cookies. But opting out of some of these cookies may have an effect on your browsing experience.
Necessary
Always Enabled
Necessary cookies are absolutely essential for the website to function properly. These cookies ensure basic functionalities and security features of the website, anonymously.
CookieDurationDescription
JSESSIONIDsessionUsed by sites written in JSP. General purpose platform session cookies that are used to maintain users' state across page requests.
viewed_cookie_policy1 yearThe cookie is set by the GDPR Cookie Consent plugin and is used to store whether or not user has consented to the use of cookies. It does not store any personal data.
__cfduid1 monthThe cookie is used by cdn services like CloudFare to identify individual clients behind a shared IP address and apply security settings on a per-client basis. It does not correspond to any user ID in the web application and does not store any personally identifiable information.
Others
Other uncategorized cookies are those that are being analyzed and have not been classified into a category as yet.
CookieDurationDescription
CONSENT16 years 8 monthsNo description
cookielawinfo-checkbox-advertising-cookies1 yearNo description
cookielawinfo-checkbox-first-party-cookies1 yearNo description
cookielawinfo-checkbox-functional-cookies1 yearNo description
cookielawinfo-checkbox-performance-cookies1 yearNo description
cookielawinfo-checkbox-persistent-cookies1 yearNo description
cookielawinfo-checkbox-session-cookies1 yearNo description
cookielawinfo-checkbox-strictly-necessary-cookies1 yearNo description
cookielawinfo-checkbox-third-party-cookies1 yearNo description
tableau_localesessionNo description
tableau_public_negotiated_localesessionNo description
_gat_gtag_UA_41824266_11 minuteNo description
Analytics
Analytical cookies are used to understand how visitors interact with the website. These cookies help provide information on metrics the number of visitors, bounce rate, traffic source, etc.
CookieDurationDescription
_ga2 yearsThis cookie is installed by Google Analytics. The cookie is used to calculate visitor, session, campaign data and keep track of site usage for the site's analytics report. The cookies store information anonymously and assign a randomly generated number to identify unique visitors.
_gid1 dayThis cookie is installed by Google Analytics. The cookie is used to store information of how visitors use a website and helps in creating an analytics report of how the website is doing. The data collected including the number visitors, the source where they have come from, and the pages visted in an anonymous form.
Performance
Performance cookies are used to understand and analyze the key performance indexes of the website which helps in delivering a better user experience for the visitors.
CookieDurationDescription
YSCsessionThis cookies is set by Youtube and is used to track the views of embedded videos.
__utma2 yearsThis cookie is set by Google Analytics and is used to distinguish users and sessions. The cookie is created when the JavaScript library executes and there are no existing __utma cookies. The cookie is updated every time data is sent to Google Analytics.
__utmb30 minutesThe cookie is set by Google Analytics. The cookie is used to determine new sessions/visits. The cookie is created when the JavaScript library executes and there are no existing __utma cookies. The cookie is updated every time data is sent to Google Analytics.
__utmcsessionThe cookie is set by Google Analytics and is deleted when the user closes the browser. The cookie is not used by ga.js. The cookie is used to enable interoperability with urchin.js which is an older version of Google analytics and used in conjunction with the __utmb cookie to determine new sessions/visits.
__utmt10 minutesThe cookie is set by Google Analytics and is used to throttle request rate.
__utmz6 monthsThis cookie is set by Google analytics and is used to store the traffic source or campaign through which the visitor reached your site.
Save & Accept
Powered by CookieYes Logo