Forecast evaluation report – October 2017

Our annual Forecast evaluation report (FER), published each autumn, examines how our forecasts compare to subsequent outturn data and identifies lessons for future forecasts.

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Forecast evaluation report – October 2017

October 10, 2017 – 2.92 MB

Supporting documents

Supplementary documents

Information or data which has been released as a result of external requests, since the original publication of the main document.

Presentations

Boxes

Within each of our key publications we include topical ‘boxes’. These self-contained analyses are unique to this publication and tend to cover recent developments in the economy or public finances that complement the main discussion of our analyses.

Blue Book 2017 and dividend income

Blue Book 2017 and dividend income
In recent years there has been a significant increase in the number of people setting themselves up as single-director companies (‘incorporations’), implying an increase in the share of household income received as dividends. ONS estimates of households dividend income were revised significantly as part of Blue Book 2017, and better capture this rise in incorporations. This box discussed the implications of these revisions, which implied a much higher level of household disposable income and household saving than previous estimates.

Economy categories: Sector net lending, Household saving ratio, Household disposable income, Household consumption

Cross-cutting categories: Data revisions, Blue Book

Fiscal policy and growth

Fiscal policy and growth
Over the past six years there has been a large discretionary fiscal tightening in the UK. This box set out estimates of the effect of fiscal policy changes on GDP growth, based on estimates of the consolidation produced by the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) together with estimates of fiscal multipliers, which are drawn from the available empirical literature. The box also considered how changes in discretionary fiscal policy compared with our forecast errors for GDP growth.

Economy categories: Real GDP

Cross-cutting categories: Fiscal multipliers, External forecasts

Revisions to borrowing in 2016-17

Revisions to borrowing in 2016-17
Initial estimates of the deficit can be revised significantly over subsequent months as more reliable data become available. This box set out how our forecasts during 2016 and 2017 evolved and how the outturns for 2016-17 were revised over time.

Fiscal categories: Departmental spending, National Insurance Contributions, VAT, Public sector net borrowing, Income tax, Corporation tax

The receipts-to-GDP ratio since 1986-87

The receipts-to-GDP ratio since 1986-87
Strong overall receipts growth in 2016-17 took receipts as a share of GDP to their highest since 1986-87. This box explored how the composition of the public sector’s income has changed over the three decades since receipts were last at the latest share of GDP.

Fiscal categories: Receipts, National Insurance Contributions, VAT, Income tax, Corporation tax