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4 December 2018

Forecast evaluation report – December 2018

Our annual Forecast evaluation report (FER), published each autumn, examines how our forecasts compare to subsequent outturn data and identifies lessons for future forecasts.

pdf

Forecast evaluation report – December 2018

December 4, 2018 – 1.13 MB

Supporting documents

  • xlsx

    December 2018 Forecast evaluation report – charts and tables

    December 4, 2018 – 3.89 MB
  • xlsx

    December 2018 Forecast evaluation report – Model assessment database

    December 4, 2018 – 44.25 KB

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Boxes

Within each of our key publications we include topical ‘boxes’. These self-contained analyses are unique to this publication and tend to cover recent developments in the economy or public finances that complement the main discussion of our analyses.

Forecast evaluation report - December 2018 | Box: 2.1 | Page: 15

Rewriting history – output growth since 2010

Rewriting history – output growth since 2010
Revisions to National Accounts data are a normal part of the Blue Book process, which reconciles the different measures of GDP and incorporates information from annual data sources. This box explored how the estimated path of real GDP growth since 2010 has evolved over time, focusing in particular on revisions to GDP growth in 2012.

Economy categories: Real GDP

Cross-cutting categories: Data revisions

Forecast evaluation report - December 2018 | Box: 2.2 | Page: 25

G7 growth and investment since the EU referendum

G7 growth and investment since the EU referendum
The vote to leave the EU had caused in a a slowdown in real GDP growth in the UK, with the main driver being weak investment growth. This box compared UK growth and investment since the referendum to that in the other major advanced countries in the G7.

Economy categories: Real GDP

Cross-cutting categories: International comparisons

Forecast evaluation report - December 2018 | Box: 3.1 | Page: 36

Impact of post-referendum rise in inflation on the public

Impact of post-referendum rise in inflation on the public
One unforeseen economic development affecting our March 2016 forecast was the upside surprise in inflation in 2017-18 as a result of the fall in the exchange rate. This box described the effect of that surprise on receipts, spending and borrowing.

Economy categories: Exchange rates, Inflation

Fiscal categories: Public sector net borrowing, Public spending, Receipts

Forecast evaluation report - December 2018 | Box: 3.2 | Page: 43

Why have onshore CT receipts performed so well since 2013-14?

Why have onshore CT receipts performed so well since 2013-14?
In recent years, onshore corporation tax receipts have repeatedly surprised on the upside. This box described the drivers behind that strength, in particular the contribution from a rising effective tax rate despite cuts to the headline rates.

Fiscal categories: Corporation tax, Bank surcharge

Forecast evaluation report – October 2017
Forecast evaluation report – December 2019

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  • Economic and fiscal outlook
  • Fiscal risks and long-term projections
  • Forecast evaluation report
  • Welfare trends report
  • Monthly public finance release
  • Devolution
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  • Tax by tax, spend by spend
  • The economy forecast
  • Policy costings
  • Brief guides and explainers
  • Brexit analysis
  • Forecast process and papers
  • OBR macroeconomic model
  • Box sets

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