Warning: Undefined property: WP_Error::$slug in /nas/content/live/obruk/wp-content/themes/obr-new/taxonomy.php on line 12

Warning: Undefined property: WP_Error::$name in /nas/content/live/obruk/wp-content/themes/obr-new/taxonomy.php on line 13

Box sets » Forecast evaluation report - December 2018


Warning: Undefined variable $the_term_ids in /nas/content/live/obruk/wp-content/themes/obr-new/taxonomy.php on line 52
Rewriting history – output growth since 2010
Revisions to National Accounts data are a normal part of the Blue Book process, which reconciles the different measures of GDP and incorporates information from annual data sources. This box explored how the estimated path of real GDP growth since 2010 has evolved over time, focusing in particular on revisions to GDP growth in 2012.

Economy categories: Real GDP

Cross-cutting categories: Data revisions

G7 growth and investment since the EU referendum
The vote to leave the EU had caused in a a slowdown in real GDP growth in the UK, with the main driver being weak investment growth. This box compared UK growth and investment since the referendum to that in the other major advanced countries in the G7.

Economy categories: Real GDP

Cross-cutting categories: International comparisons

Impact of post-referendum rise in inflation on the public
One unforeseen economic development affecting our March 2016 forecast was the upside surprise in inflation in 2017-18 as a result of the fall in the exchange rate. This box described the effect of that surprise on receipts, spending and borrowing.
Why have onshore CT receipts performed so well since 2013-14?
In recent years, onshore corporation tax receipts have repeatedly surprised on the upside. This box described the drivers behind that strength, in particular the contribution from a rising effective tax rate despite cuts to the headline rates.

Fiscal categories: Bank surcharge, Corporation tax