Our annual Forecast evaluation report (FER), published each autumn, examines how our forecasts compare to subsequent outturn data and identifies lessons for future forecasts.
Within each of our key publications we include topical ‘boxes’. These self-contained analyses are unique to this publication and tend to cover recent developments in the economy or public finances that complement the main discussion of our analyses.
Stamp duty land tax (SDLT) is one of the more volatile sources of receipts. In our 2016 Forecast evaluation report, this box identified a number of reasons why forecasting SDLT receipts is challenging, including the concentration of receipts in a small proportion of expensive properties and the effects of significant policy changes.
Our 2016 Forecast evaluation report was published around four months after the EU referendum was held. Over that period forecasters had revised their real GDP growth and borrowing forecasts. This box summarised those revisions and the relationship between them. It illustrated the uncertainty that forecasters faced in trying to predict the impact of the referendum result and Brexit on the economy and public finances.