The latest update of our forecasts was published on 17 November 2022 in the November 2022 Economic and fiscal outlook. Read the Overview for the key messages of our forecast.

Due to the changing deadlines for our November 2022 forecast, coupled with the relatively short notice of the final publication date, this EFO is necessarily briefer than usual.

We scaled back more detailed descriptions in some areas, but all key information remains accessible below. And we will, as always, respond to requests for supplementary information.

We have also needed to delay the publication of some of our usual databases and supplementary tables, to place some of the usual EFO tables online, and to remove a small number of tables containing detailed breakdowns that were not produced in this forecast.

The latest update of our forecasts was published on the 23 March 2022 in the March 2022 Economic and fiscal outlook. Read the overview or the Executive summary.

Chapter 2 sets out our forecasts for the economy over a five year horizon. We set out our latest forecast and the effect of policies in the Budget and Spending Review 2022.

Chapter 3 sets out our forecasts for receipts and public spending over a five year horizon. We also explain our loans and other financial transactions forecasts. All this, together with new policy decisions, builds the outlook for borrowing and debt.

In Chapter 4, we assess the Government against its fiscal targets and present the significant uncertainty around our forecast. We examine whether the Government has a better than 50 per cent chance of meeting them on current policy.

Annex A covers policy decisions, Annex B sets out the major balance sheet interventions during the financial crisis and pandemic and Annex C explains our pandemic-related scarring assumptions.

The latest update of our forecasts was published on the 27 October 2021 in the October 2021 Economic and fiscal outlook. Read the overview or the Executive summary.

Chapter 2 sets out our forecasts for the economy over a five year horizon. We cover our assumptions regarding the coronavirus pandemic, set out our latest forecast and the effect of policies in the Budget and Spending Review 2021.

Chapter 3 sets out our forecasts for receipts and public spending over a five year horizon. We also explain our loans and other financial transactions forecasts. All this, together with new policy decisions, builds the outlook for borrowing and debt.

In Chapter 4, we assess the Government against its fiscal targets and present the significant uncertainty around our forecast. We examine whether the Government has a better than 50 per cent chance of meeting them on current policy.

Annex A covers the policy decisions since March and Annex B sets out the major balance sheet interventions during the financial crisis and pandemic.

The latest update of our forecasts was published on the 3 March 2021 in the March 2021 Economic and fiscal outlook. Read the overview or the Executive summary.

Chapter 2 sets out our forecasts for the economy over a five year horizon. We cover our assumptions regarding the coronavirus pandemic, set out our latest forecast and the effect of policies in the Budget 2021.

Chapter 3 sets out our forecasts for receipts and public spending over a five year horizon. We also explain our loans and other financial transactions forecasts. All this, together with new policy decisions, builds the outlook for borrowing and debt.

In Chapter 4, we assess the Government against its fiscal targets and present the significant uncertainty around our forecast.

Annex A covers the policy decisions since November and Annex B provides an update on major balance sheet interventions.

The latest update of our forecasts was published on the 25 November 2020 in the November 2020 Economic and fiscal outlook. Read the overview or the Executive summary.

Chapter 2 sets out our forecasts for the economy over a five year horizon. We cover our assumptions regarding the coronavirus pandemic, set out our latest forecast and results from our upside and downside virus scenarios.

Chapter 3 sets out our forecasts for receipts and public spending over a five year horizon. We also explain our loans and other financial transactions forecasts. All this, together with new policy decisions, builds the outlook for borrowing and debt. We also set out our latest forecast and results from our upside and downside virus scenarios.

In Chapter 4, we assess the Government against its fiscal targets and present the significant uncertainty around our forecast.

Annex A covers the policy decisions since March, Annex B tests the impact of a no deal Brexit on our scenarios and Annex C sets out the major balance sheet interventions during the financial crisis and subsequent recession.

The latest update of our forecasts was published on the 11 March 2020 in the March 2020 Economic and fiscal outlook. Read the overview or the Executive summary.

In Chapter 2, we set out our forecasts for the economy over a five year horizon. We cover our assumptions regarding the UK’s exit from the EU, our latest forecast changes in light of recent developments and the effect of policies in the Spring Statement.

Chapter 3 sets out our forecasts for receipts and public spending over a five year horizon. We also explain our loans and other financial transactions forecasts. All this, together with new policy decisions, builds the outlook for borrowing and debt.

In Chapter 4, we assess the Government against its fiscal targets. We examine whether the Government has a better than 50 per cent chance of meeting them on current policy. We also test the sensitivity of our fiscal forecasts in an alternative economic scenario.

Annex A covers the Budget 2020 policy decisions and Annex B sets out our long-run economic determinants.

In December 2019, we restated our March 2019 borrowing forecast to include recent ONS statistical changes but did not incorporate any other new data, new judgements nor include an update to the economy forecast. The fiscal forecasts within this document subsumes those in the Economic and fiscal outlook – March 2019 below.

The latest update of our forecasts was published on the 13 March 2019 in the March 2019 Economic and fiscal outlook. Read the overview or the Executive summary.

In Chapter 2, we begin by looking at the main developments since our last forecast and the latest external forecasts for the UK economy. The latest outturns give us a starting point for our forecasts.

Chapter 3 sets out our forecasts for the economy over a five year horizon. We cover our assumptions regarding the UK’s exit from the EU, our latest forecast changes in light of recent developments and the effect of policies in the Spring Statement.

Chapter 4 sets out our forecasts for receipts and public spending over a five year horizon. We also explain our loans and other financial transactions forecasts. All this, together with new policy decisions, builds the outlook for borrowing and debt.

In Chapter 5, we assess the Government against its fiscal targets. We examine whether the Government has a better than 50 per cent chance of meeting them on current policy. We also test the sensitivity of our fiscal forecasts in an alternative economic scenario.

Annex A covers the Spring Statement 2019 policy decisions and Annex B explains the accounting treatment of student loans and it effect on the public finances.

The latest update of our forecasts was published on the 29 October 2018 in the October 2018 Economic and fiscal outlook. Read the overview.

In Chapter 2, we begin by looking at the main developments since our last forecast and the latest external forecasts for the UK economy. The latest outturns give us a starting point for our forecasts.

Chapter 3 sets out our forecasts for the economy over a five year horizon. We cover our assumptions regarding the UK’s exit from the EU, our latest forecast changes in light of recent developments and the effect of policies announced in the Budget.

Chapter 4 sets out our forecasts for receipts and public spending over a five year horizon. We also explain our loans and other financial transactions forecasts. All this, together with new policy decisions, builds the outlook for borrowing and debt.

In Chapter 5, we assess the Government against its fiscal targets. We examine whether the Government has a better than 50 per cent chance of meeting them on current policy. We also test the sensitivity of our fiscal forecasts in an alternative economic scenario.

Annex A covers the Budget 2018 policy decisions.

  Watch the presentation

The latest update of our forecasts was published on the 13 March 2018 in the March 2018 Economic and fiscal outlook. Read the overview.

In Chapter 2, we begin by looking at the main developments since our last forecast and the latest external forecasts for the UK economy. The latest outturns give us a starting point for our forecasts.

Chapter 3 sets out our forecasts for the economy over a five year horizon. We cover our assumptions regarding the UK’s exit from the EU, our latest forecast changes in light of recent developments.

Chapter 4 sets out our forecasts for receipts and public spending over a five year horizon. We also explain our loans and other financial transactions forecasts. All this, together with new policy decisions, builds the outlook for borrowing and debt.

In Chapter 5, we assess the Government against its fiscal targets. We examine whether the Government has a better than 50 per cent chance of meeting them on current policy. We also test the sensitivity of our fiscal forecasts in an alternative economic scenario.

Annex A covers policy measures announced since November 2017 and Annex B explains the UK’s EU financial settlement – the ‘divorce bill’.

  Watch the presentation

The latest update of our forecasts was published on the 22 November 2017 in the November 2017 Economic and fiscal outlook. Read the overview.

In Chapter 2, we begin by looking at the main developments since our last forecast and the latest external forecasts for the UK economy. The latest outturns give us a starting point for our forecasts.

Chapter 3 sets out our forecasts for the economy over a five year horizon. We cover our assumptions regarding the UK’s exit from the EU, our latest forecast changes in light of recent developments and the effect of policies announced in the Budget.

Chapter 4 sets out our forecasts for receipts and public spending over a five year horizon. We also explain our loans and other financial transactions forecasts. All this, together with new policy decisions, builds the outlook for borrowing and debt.

In Chapter 5, we assess the Government against its fiscal targets. We examine whether the Government has a better than 50 per cent chance of meeting them on current policy. We also test the sensitivity of our fiscal forecasts in an alternative economic scenario.

Annex A covers the Autumn Budget 2017 policy decisions and Annex B explains the UK’s EU contributions in our spending forecasts.

  Watch the presentation