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16 November 2022

Economic and fiscal outlook – November 2022

The latest update of our forecasts was published on 17 November 2022 in the November 2022 Economic and fiscal outlook. Read the Overview for the key messages of our forecast.

pdf

Economic and fiscal outlook - November 2022

November 17, 2022 – 733 KB

Due to the changing deadlines for our November 2022 forecast, coupled with the relatively short notice of the final publication date, this EFO is necessarily briefer than usual.

We scaled back more detailed descriptions in some areas, but all key information remains accessible below. And we will, as always, respond to requests for supplementary information.

We have also needed to delay the publication of some of our usual databases and supplementary tables, to place some of the usual EFO tables online, and to remove a small number of tables containing detailed breakdowns that were not produced in this forecast.

Supporting documents

  • xlsx

    November 2022 Economic and fiscal outlook – charts and tables

    November 17, 2022 – 4 MB
  • pdf

    November 2022 Economic and fiscal outlook – press notice

    November 17, 2022 – 95 KB
  • xlsx

    November 2022 Devolved fiscal forecast charts and tables

    November 17, 2022 – 260 KB

    Due to the uncertainty of the November 2022 forecast process, we published only the tables that feature in the Devolved tax and spending forecast report on 17 November. The full report was published on 24 November. 

  • pdf

    Log of substantive contact between the OBR and Treasury Ministers, Special Advisers and their private office staff between 7 July 2022 and 16 November 2022.

    November 17, 2022 – 53 KB
  • xlsx

    November 2022 Economic and fiscal outlook – supplementary fiscal tables: receipts and other

    November 24, 2022 – 2 MB
  • zip

    November 2022 Economic and fiscal outlook – supplementary tables (zip file)

    November 24, 2022 – 2 MB
  • xlsx

    November 2022 Economic and fiscal outlook – supplementary fiscal tables: expenditure

    November 24, 2022 – 114 KB
  • xlsx

    November 2022 Economic and fiscal outlook – supplementary economy tables

    November 24, 2022 – 369 KB
  • pdf

    November 2022 Devolved tax and spending forecasts

    November 24, 2022 – 916 KB

Supplementary documents

Information or data which has been released as a result of external requests, since the original publication of the main document.

  • xlsx

    November 2022 Economic and fiscal outlook monthly profiles

    December 21, 2022 – 121 KB
  • pdf

    November 2022 Economic and fiscal outlook – Income streams subject to self-assessment income tax

    December 15, 2022 – 114 KB
  • pdf

    November 2022 Economic and fiscal outlook – income tax and National Insurance contributions

    December 8, 2022 – 122 KB
  • pdf

    November 2022 Economic and fiscal outlook – Ofgem price cap

    December 1, 2022 – 117 KB
  • pdf

    November 2022 Economic and fiscal outlook – emissions trading scheme receipts

    December 1, 2022 – 130 KB
  • pdf

    November 2022 Economic and fiscal outlook – welfare spending

    November 25, 2022 – 174 KB

    This supplementary release was reissued on 14 December with Chart 1.3 amended to show working-age PIP and DLA caseloads rather than total caseloads.

Presentations

  • pdf

    November 2022 Economic and fiscal outlook – speaking notes

    November 17, 2022 – 155 KB
  • pdf

    November 2022 Economic and fiscal outlook – presentation slides

    November 17, 2022 – 462 KB

Previous forecasts

Publications

  • Economic and fiscal outlook
  • Fiscal risks and long-term projections
  • Forecast evaluation report
  • Welfare trends report
  • Monthly public finance release
  • Brief guides and explainers
  • Box sets
  • All other publications

Boxes

Within each of our key publications we include topical ‘boxes’. These self-contained analyses are unique to this publication and tend to cover recent developments in the economy or public finances that complement the main discussion of our analyses.

Economic and fiscal outlook - November 2022 | Box: 1 | Page: 11

The demand- and supply-side effects of policy measures

In each Economic and fiscal outlook we publish a box that summarises the effects of the Government’s new policy measures on our economy forecast. These include the overall effect of the package of measures and any specific effects of individual measures that we deem to be sufficiently material to have wider indirect effects on the economy. In our November 2022 Economic and fiscal outlook, we adjusted our economy forecast to take into account plans for the energy price guarantee (EPG) and consider the impact of tax and spending measures on the supply side of the economy.

Economy categories: Labour market, Inflation, Potential output

Cross-cutting categories: Fiscal multipliers, Forecast process

Economic and fiscal outlook - November 2022 | Box: 2 | Page: 18

The outlook for household income and consumption

Chart A: Real household disposable income per person
In 2022-23 and 2023-24, living standards are set for the largest fall on record. This box set out our forecast for real household income, the impact of government policy in buffering the income shock, and its implications for our consumption forecast.

Economy categories: Household disposable income, Household consumption, Interest rates, Household saving ratio

Economic and fiscal outlook - November 2022 | Box: 3 | Page: 38

The implications of the Government’s departmental spending plans

Chart D: Planned SR21 and implied post-SR21 breakdown of RDEL spending
In November 2022 the government reduced its departmental (DEL) spending assumptions for the final three years of the forecast period. This box discussed the implications of the government's day-to-day and capital spending plans for various departments and public services during and after the 2021 Spending Review.

Fiscal categories: Public spending, Departmental spending, Health, Education

Economic and fiscal outlook - November 2022 | Box: 4 | Page: 50

The sensitivity of our central forecast to gas prices and interest rates

Chart E: Sensitivity of PSNB and underlying debt to interest rates
In 2022-23 we have seen sharp rises in gas prices and interest rates, both of which are forecast to remain elevated in 2023-24. This box presented the potential fiscal impacts of a higher-than forecast path for gas prices and two scenarios where Bank Rate is either a percentage point higher or lower than in our central forecast.

Economy categories: Interest rates, Conditioning assumptions, Gas prices

Fiscal categories: Public sector net borrowing

23 March 2022

Economic and fiscal outlook – March 2022

The latest update of our forecasts was published on the 23 March 2022 in the March 2022 Economic and fiscal outlook. Read the overview or the Executive summary.

pdf

Economic and fiscal outlook - March 2022

March 23, 2022 – 3 MB

Chapter 2 sets out our forecasts for the economy over a five year horizon. We set out our latest forecast and the effect of policies in the Budget and Spending Review 2022.

Chapter 3 sets out our forecasts for receipts and public spending over a five year horizon. We also explain our loans and other financial transactions forecasts. All this, together with new policy decisions, builds the outlook for borrowing and debt.

In Chapter 4, we assess the Government against its fiscal targets and present the significant uncertainty around our forecast. We examine whether the Government has a better than 50 per cent chance of meeting them on current policy.

Annex A covers policy decisions, Annex B sets out the major balance sheet interventions during the financial crisis and pandemic and Annex C explains our pandemic-related scarring assumptions.

Previous forecasts

27 October 2021

Economic and fiscal outlook – October 2021

The latest update of our forecasts was published on the 27 October 2021 in the October 2021 Economic and fiscal outlook. Read the overview or the Executive summary.

pdf

Economic and fiscal outlook - October 2021

October 27, 2021 – 3 MB

Chapter 2 sets out our forecasts for the economy over a five year horizon. We cover our assumptions regarding the coronavirus pandemic, set out our latest forecast and the effect of policies in the Budget and Spending Review 2021.

Chapter 3 sets out our forecasts for receipts and public spending over a five year horizon. We also explain our loans and other financial transactions forecasts. All this, together with new policy decisions, builds the outlook for borrowing and debt.

In Chapter 4, we assess the Government against its fiscal targets and present the significant uncertainty around our forecast. We examine whether the Government has a better than 50 per cent chance of meeting them on current policy.

Annex A covers the policy decisions since March and Annex B sets out the major balance sheet interventions during the financial crisis and pandemic.

Previous forecasts

3 March 2021

Economic and fiscal outlook – March 2021

The latest update of our forecasts was published on the 3 March 2021 in the March 2021 Economic and fiscal outlook. Read the overview or the Executive summary.

pdf

Economic and fiscal outlook - March 2021

March 3, 2021 – 2 MB

Chapter 2 sets out our forecasts for the economy over a five year horizon. We cover our assumptions regarding the coronavirus pandemic, set out our latest forecast and the effect of policies in the Budget 2021.

Chapter 3 sets out our forecasts for receipts and public spending over a five year horizon. We also explain our loans and other financial transactions forecasts. All this, together with new policy decisions, builds the outlook for borrowing and debt.

In Chapter 4, we assess the Government against its fiscal targets and present the significant uncertainty around our forecast.

Annex A covers the policy decisions since November and Annex B provides an update on major balance sheet interventions.

Previous forecasts

25 November 2020

Economic and fiscal outlook – November 2020

The latest update of our forecasts was published on the 25 November 2020 in the November 2020 Economic and fiscal outlook. Read the overview or the Executive summary.

pdf

Economic and fiscal outlook - November 2020

November 25, 2020 – 2 MB

Chapter 2 sets out our forecasts for the economy over a five year horizon. We cover our assumptions regarding the coronavirus pandemic, set out our latest forecast and results from our upside and downside virus scenarios.

Chapter 3 sets out our forecasts for receipts and public spending over a five year horizon. We also explain our loans and other financial transactions forecasts. All this, together with new policy decisions, builds the outlook for borrowing and debt. We also set out our latest forecast and results from our upside and downside virus scenarios.

In Chapter 4, we assess the Government against its fiscal targets and present the significant uncertainty around our forecast.

Annex A covers the policy decisions since March, Annex B tests the impact of a no deal Brexit on our scenarios and Annex C sets out the major balance sheet interventions during the financial crisis and subsequent recession.

Previous forecasts

11 March 2020

Economic and fiscal outlook – March 2020

The latest update of our forecasts was published on the 11 March 2020 in the March 2020 Economic and fiscal outlook. Read the overview or the Executive summary.

pdf

Economic and fiscal outlook – March 2020

March 11, 2020 – 2 MB

In Chapter 2, we set out our forecasts for the economy over a five year horizon. We cover our assumptions regarding the UK’s exit from the EU, our latest forecast changes in light of recent developments and the effect of policies in the Spring Statement.

Chapter 3 sets out our forecasts for receipts and public spending over a five year horizon. We also explain our loans and other financial transactions forecasts. All this, together with new policy decisions, builds the outlook for borrowing and debt.

In Chapter 4, we assess the Government against its fiscal targets. We examine whether the Government has a better than 50 per cent chance of meeting them on current policy. We also test the sensitivity of our fiscal forecasts in an alternative economic scenario.

Annex A covers the Budget 2020 policy decisions and Annex B sets out our long-run economic determinants.

Previous forecasts

13 March 2019

Economic and fiscal outlook – March 2019

In December 2019, we restated our March 2019 borrowing forecast to include recent ONS statistical changes but did not incorporate any other new data, new judgements nor include an update to the economy forecast. The fiscal forecasts within this document subsumes those in the Economic and fiscal outlook – March 2019 below.

pdf

Restated March 2019 forecast

December 16, 2019 – 377 KB

The latest update of our forecasts was published on the 13 March 2019 in the March 2019 Economic and fiscal outlook. Read the overview or the Executive summary.

pdf

Economic and fiscal outlook - March 2019

March 13, 2019 –

In Chapter 2, we begin by looking at the main developments since our last forecast and the latest external forecasts for the UK economy. The latest outturns give us a starting point for our forecasts.

Chapter 3 sets out our forecasts for the economy over a five year horizon. We cover our assumptions regarding the UK’s exit from the EU, our latest forecast changes in light of recent developments and the effect of policies in the Spring Statement.

Chapter 4 sets out our forecasts for receipts and public spending over a five year horizon. We also explain our loans and other financial transactions forecasts. All this, together with new policy decisions, builds the outlook for borrowing and debt.

In Chapter 5, we assess the Government against its fiscal targets. We examine whether the Government has a better than 50 per cent chance of meeting them on current policy. We also test the sensitivity of our fiscal forecasts in an alternative economic scenario.

Annex A covers the Spring Statement 2019 policy decisions and Annex B explains the accounting treatment of student loans and it effect on the public finances.

Previous forecasts

29 October 2018

Economic and fiscal outlook – October 2018

The latest update of our forecasts was published on the 29 October 2018 in the October 2018 Economic and fiscal outlook. Read the overview.

pdf

Economic and fiscal outlook - October 2018

October 29, 2018 –

In Chapter 2, we begin by looking at the main developments since our last forecast and the latest external forecasts for the UK economy. The latest outturns give us a starting point for our forecasts.

Chapter 3 sets out our forecasts for the economy over a five year horizon. We cover our assumptions regarding the UK’s exit from the EU, our latest forecast changes in light of recent developments and the effect of policies announced in the Budget.

Chapter 4 sets out our forecasts for receipts and public spending over a five year horizon. We also explain our loans and other financial transactions forecasts. All this, together with new policy decisions, builds the outlook for borrowing and debt.

In Chapter 5, we assess the Government against its fiscal targets. We examine whether the Government has a better than 50 per cent chance of meeting them on current policy. We also test the sensitivity of our fiscal forecasts in an alternative economic scenario.

Annex A covers the Budget 2018 policy decisions.

youtube logo  Watch the presentation

Previous forecasts

13 March 2018

Economic and fiscal outlook – March 2018

The latest update of our forecasts was published on the 13 March 2018 in the March 2018 Economic and fiscal outlook. Read the overview.

pdf

Economic and fiscal outlook – March 2018

March 13, 2018 – 2 MB

In Chapter 2, we begin by looking at the main developments since our last forecast and the latest external forecasts for the UK economy. The latest outturns give us a starting point for our forecasts.

Chapter 3 sets out our forecasts for the economy over a five year horizon. We cover our assumptions regarding the UK’s exit from the EU, our latest forecast changes in light of recent developments.

Chapter 4 sets out our forecasts for receipts and public spending over a five year horizon. We also explain our loans and other financial transactions forecasts. All this, together with new policy decisions, builds the outlook for borrowing and debt.

In Chapter 5, we assess the Government against its fiscal targets. We examine whether the Government has a better than 50 per cent chance of meeting them on current policy. We also test the sensitivity of our fiscal forecasts in an alternative economic scenario.

Annex A covers policy measures announced since November 2017 and Annex B explains the UK’s EU financial settlement – the ‘divorce bill’.

youtube logo  Watch the presentation

Previous forecasts

22 November 2017

Economic and fiscal outlook – November 2017

The latest update of our forecasts was published on the 22 November 2017 in the November 2017 Economic and fiscal outlook. Read the overview.

pdf

Economic and fiscal outlook – November 2017

November 22, 2017 – 2 MB

In Chapter 2, we begin by looking at the main developments since our last forecast and the latest external forecasts for the UK economy. The latest outturns give us a starting point for our forecasts.

Chapter 3 sets out our forecasts for the economy over a five year horizon. We cover our assumptions regarding the UK’s exit from the EU, our latest forecast changes in light of recent developments and the effect of policies announced in the Budget.

Chapter 4 sets out our forecasts for receipts and public spending over a five year horizon. We also explain our loans and other financial transactions forecasts. All this, together with new policy decisions, builds the outlook for borrowing and debt.

In Chapter 5, we assess the Government against its fiscal targets. We examine whether the Government has a better than 50 per cent chance of meeting them on current policy. We also test the sensitivity of our fiscal forecasts in an alternative economic scenario.

Annex A covers the Autumn Budget 2017 policy decisions and Annex B explains the UK’s EU contributions in our spending forecasts.

youtube logo  Watch the presentation

Previous forecasts

Publications

  • Economic and fiscal outlook
  • Fiscal risks and long-term projections
  • Forecast evaluation report
  • Welfare trends report
  • Monthly public finance release
  • Devolution
  • All other publications

Forecasts in-depth

  • Tax by tax, spend by spend
  • The economy forecast
  • Policy costings
  • Brief guides and explainers
  • Brexit analysis
  • Forecast process and papers
  • OBR macroeconomic model
  • Box sets

About the OBR

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