Economic and fiscal outlook – November 2022

The latest update of our forecasts was published on 17 November 2022 in the November 2022 Economic and fiscal outlook. Read the Overview for the key messages of our forecast.

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Economic and fiscal outlook - November 2022

November 17, 2022 – 783.67 KB

Due to the changing deadlines for our November 2022 forecast, coupled with the relatively short notice of the final publication date, this EFO is necessarily briefer than usual.

We scaled back more detailed descriptions in some areas, but all key information remains accessible below. And we will, as always, respond to requests for supplementary information.

We have also needed to delay the publication of some of our usual databases and supplementary tables, to place some of the usual EFO tables online, and to remove a small number of tables containing detailed breakdowns that were not produced in this forecast.

Supporting documents

Supplementary documents

Information or data which has been released as a result of external requests, since the original publication of the main document.

Presentations

Boxes

Within each of our key publications we include topical ‘boxes’. These self-contained analyses are unique to this publication and tend to cover recent developments in the economy or public finances that complement the main discussion of our analyses.

The demand- and supply-side effects of policy measures

In each Economic and fiscal outlook we publish a box that summarises the effects of the Government’s new policy measures on our economy forecast. These include the overall effect of the package of measures and any specific effects of individual measures that we deem to be sufficiently material to have wider indirect effects on the economy. In our November 2022 Economic and fiscal outlook, we adjusted our economy forecast to take into account plans for the energy price guarantee (EPG) and consider the impact of tax and spending measures on the supply side of the economy.

Economy categories: Inflation, Potential output, Labour market

Cross-cutting categories: Fiscal multipliers, Forecast process

The outlook for household income and consumption

Chart A: Real household disposable income per person
In 2022-23 and 2023-24, living standards are set for the largest fall on record. This box set out our forecast for real household income, the impact of government policy in buffering the income shock, and its implications for our consumption forecast.

Economy categories: Interest rates, Household saving ratio, Household disposable income, Household consumption

The implications of the Government’s departmental spending plans

Chart D: Planned SR21 and implied post-SR21 breakdown of RDEL spending
In November 2022 the government reduced its departmental (DEL) spending assumptions for the final three years of the forecast period. This box discussed the implications of the government's day-to-day and capital spending plans for various departments and public services during and after the 2021 Spending Review.

Fiscal categories: Education, Public spending, Departmental spending, Health

The sensitivity of our central forecast to gas prices and interest rates

Chart E: Sensitivity of PSNB and underlying debt to interest rates
In 2022-23 we have seen sharp rises in gas prices and interest rates, both of which are forecast to remain elevated in 2023-24. This box presented the potential fiscal impacts of a higher-than forecast path for gas prices and two scenarios where Bank Rate is either a percentage point higher or lower than in our central forecast.

Economy categories: Gas prices, Interest rates, Conditioning assumptions

Fiscal categories: Public sector net borrowing