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16 November 2022

Economic and fiscal outlook – November 2022

The latest update of our forecasts was published on 17 November 2022 in the November 2022 Economic and fiscal outlook. Read the Overview for the key messages of our forecast.

pdf

Economic and fiscal outlook - November 2022

November 17, 2022 – 783.67 KB

Due to the changing deadlines for our November 2022 forecast, coupled with the relatively short notice of the final publication date, this EFO is necessarily briefer than usual.

We scaled back more detailed descriptions in some areas, but all key information remains accessible below. And we will, as always, respond to requests for supplementary information.

We have also needed to delay the publication of some of our usual databases and supplementary tables, to place some of the usual EFO tables online, and to remove a small number of tables containing detailed breakdowns that were not produced in this forecast.

Supporting documents

  • xlsx

    November 2022 Economic and fiscal outlook – charts and tables

    November 17, 2022 – 3.79 MB
  • pdf

    November 2022 Economic and fiscal outlook – press notice

    November 17, 2022 – 95.13 KB
  • xlsx

    November 2022 Devolved fiscal forecast charts and tables

    November 17, 2022 – 259.76 KB

    Due to the uncertainty of the November 2022 forecast process, we published only the tables that feature in the Devolved tax and spending forecast report on 17 November. The full report was published on 24 November. 

  • pdf

    Log of substantive contact between the OBR and Treasury Ministers, Special Advisers and their private office staff between 7 July 2022 and 16 November 2022.

    November 17, 2022 – 53.17 KB
  • xlsx

    November 2022 Economic and fiscal outlook – supplementary fiscal tables: receipts and other

    November 24, 2022 – 2.19 MB
  • zip

    November 2022 Economic and fiscal outlook – supplementary tables (zip file)

    November 24, 2022 – 2.50 MB
  • xlsx

    November 2022 Economic and fiscal outlook – supplementary fiscal tables: expenditure

    November 24, 2022 – 114.46 KB
  • xlsx

    November 2022 Economic and fiscal outlook – supplementary economy tables

    November 24, 2022 – 369.08 KB
  • pdf

    November 2022 Devolved tax and spending forecasts

    November 24, 2022 – 915.80 KB

Supplementary documents

Information or data which has been released as a result of external requests, since the original publication of the main document.

  • xlsx

    November 2022 Economic and fiscal outlook monthly profiles

    February 20, 2023 – 121.50 KB
  • pdf

    November 2022 Economic and fiscal outlook – Income streams subject to self-assessment income tax

    December 15, 2022 – 113.50 KB
  • pdf

    November 2022 Economic and fiscal outlook – income tax and National Insurance contributions

    December 8, 2022 – 122.34 KB
  • pdf

    November 2022 Economic and fiscal outlook – Ofgem price cap

    December 1, 2022 – 116.74 KB
  • pdf

    November 2022 Economic and fiscal outlook – emissions trading scheme receipts

    December 1, 2022 – 129.78 KB
  • pdf

    November 2022 Economic and fiscal outlook – welfare spending

    November 25, 2022 – 152.61 KB

    This supplementary release was reissued on 14 December with Chart 1.3 amended to show working-age PIP and DLA caseloads rather than total caseloads.

Presentations

  • pdf

    November 2022 Economic and fiscal outlook – speaking notes

    November 17, 2022 – 154.73 KB
  • pdf

    November 2022 Economic and fiscal outlook – presentation slides

    November 17, 2022 – 462.01 KB

Previous forecasts

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Publications

  • Economic and fiscal outlook
  • Fiscal risks and long-term projections
  • Forecast evaluation report
  • Welfare trends report
  • Monthly public finance release
  • Brief guides and explainers
  • Box sets
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Boxes

Within each of our key publications we include topical ‘boxes’. These self-contained analyses are unique to this publication and tend to cover recent developments in the economy or public finances that complement the main discussion of our analyses.

Economic and fiscal outlook - November 2022 | Box: 1 | Page: 11

The demand- and supply-side effects of policy measures

In each Economic and fiscal outlook we publish a box that summarises the effects of the Government’s new policy measures on our economy forecast. These include the overall effect of the package of measures and any specific effects of individual measures that we deem to be sufficiently material to have wider indirect effects on the economy. In our November 2022 Economic and fiscal outlook, we adjusted our economy forecast to take into account plans for the energy price guarantee (EPG) and consider the impact of tax and spending measures on the supply side of the economy.

Economy categories: Labour market, Inflation, Potential output

Cross-cutting categories: Fiscal multipliers, Forecast process

Economic and fiscal outlook - November 2022 | Box: 2 | Page: 18

The outlook for household income and consumption

Chart A: Real household disposable income per person
In 2022-23 and 2023-24, living standards are set for the largest fall on record. This box set out our forecast for real household income, the impact of government policy in buffering the income shock, and its implications for our consumption forecast.

Economy categories: Household disposable income, Household consumption, Interest rates, Household saving ratio

Economic and fiscal outlook - November 2022 | Box: 3 | Page: 38

The implications of the Government’s departmental spending plans

Chart D: Planned SR21 and implied post-SR21 breakdown of RDEL spending
In November 2022 the government reduced its departmental (DEL) spending assumptions for the final three years of the forecast period. This box discussed the implications of the government's day-to-day and capital spending plans for various departments and public services during and after the 2021 Spending Review.

Fiscal categories: Public spending, Departmental spending, Health, Education

Economic and fiscal outlook - November 2022 | Box: 4 | Page: 50

The sensitivity of our central forecast to gas prices and interest rates

Chart E: Sensitivity of PSNB and underlying debt to interest rates
In 2022-23 we have seen sharp rises in gas prices and interest rates, both of which are forecast to remain elevated in 2023-24. This box presented the potential fiscal impacts of a higher-than forecast path for gas prices and two scenarios where Bank Rate is either a percentage point higher or lower than in our central forecast.

Economy categories: Interest rates, Conditioning assumptions, Gas prices

Fiscal categories: Public sector net borrowing

Economic and fiscal outlook – March 2022
Economic and fiscal outlook – March 2023

Publications

  • Economic and fiscal outlook
  • Fiscal risks and long-term projections
  • Forecast evaluation report
  • Welfare trends report
  • Monthly public finance release
  • Devolution
  • All other publications

Forecasts in-depth

  • Tax by tax, spend by spend
  • The economy forecast
  • Policy costings
  • Brief guides and explainers
  • Brexit analysis
  • Forecast process and papers
  • OBR macroeconomic model
  • Box sets

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