Box sets » Imports and exports
In the run-up to our March 2025 Economic and fiscal outlook, global trade policies had been subject to frequent changes and the future direction for trade policy was highly uncertain. In this box, we outlined three illustrative scenarios to show the potential impact of higher US and global tariffs on UK output and inflation, highlighting the primary transmission channels and their probable effects.
Since the June 2016 EU referendum, our forecasts have incorporated a set of assumptions about the economic impact of Brexit on trade, productivity, investment, and migration. In this box, we assessed our current assumptions on trade against the latest evidence.
Since 1970 the UK's energy sector has undergone significant shifts following the discovery of oil and gas in the North Sea and the energy shocks of the 1970s. In this box we summarised the historical events and changes that has led to the UK has become increasingly dependent on imported gas.