Box sets » Public finances » Tax revenues

Chart 3.A: Real GDP and tax revenues: October forecast versus outturn
Since our October 2021 EFO the real economy has performed largely as expected in 21-22 but tax receipts have come in well above that forecast. In this box, we examined reasons why tax receipts have recovered so quickly particularly in comparison to economic data.

Economy categories: Nominal GDP

Fiscal categories: Income tax, Corporation tax, Receipts, VAT

Cross-cutting categories: Coronavirus

Chart 3.C: Aggregate two-year pay growth in the first three quarters of 2021-22 and average effective tax rates by sector
This box considered the reasons for particular strength in income tax receipts since 2019. It covered the growth in aggregate pay across the income distribution using RTI data; looked at pay growth and effective tax rate by sector since 2019; and finally at how the freeze to tax thresholds from April 2022 will compound this strength in receipts.

Fiscal categories: Income tax, Receipts

Cross-cutting categories: Fiscal drag and price uprating

Chart 3.D: Electric vehicle new car market share
This box outlined the recent growth in electric vehicle sales and the fiscal implications of this and the role of policy in the transition.

Fiscal categories: Fuel duty, Corporation tax, Receipts, Vehicle excise duties

Cross-cutting categories: Climate change