Category Archive: What’s new

May’s public finances data continue to show the budget deficit rising sharply. Two months into 2020-21, tax payments received by HMRC are down 43 per cent on the same period last year, while central government spending is up 48 per cent. Relative to our April scenario, initial estimates of both GDP and tax receipts have…

The Chancellor of the Exchequer has announced that Sir Chris Kelly has been re-appointed as a non-executive member of the OBR and Oversight Board chair. Sir Christopher Kelly said: “I am delighted to be re-appointed as the Chair of the Oversight Board of the Office for Budget Responsibility. The role of the OBR is as…

The Chancellor has nominated Richard Hughes as the next Chair of the Office for Budget Responsibility when Robert Chote ends his final term in October. The appointment is subject to approval from the TSC. Robert Chote commented: “I am delighted that the Chancellor has nominated Richard Hughes to succeed me as Chairman of the OBR…

April’s public finances data provide an initial taste of the fiscal hit from the coronavirus lockdown and Government support for individuals and businesses. Tax payments received by HMRC were down 42 per cent on the same month last year, while central government spending jumped 52 per cent. As a result, the budget deficit was the…

Robert Chote thanks the OBR’s staff, alumni, contributors and stakeholders in a video on its 10th anniversary. Robert Chote thanks the OBR’s staff, alumni, contributors and stakeholders on its 10th anniversary 🎂#10yearsofOBR pic.twitter.com/hf5Mr5eaq0 — Office for Budget Responsibility (@OBR_UK) May 14, 2020

Some initial effects of the unfolding coronavirus shock to the public finances are visible in the March cash data. Receipts fell sharply – particularly VAT, where payments have been deferred. Spending increased, in part due to the cost of business support measures. These effects have yet to feed through to the headline accruals measure of…

We have published a new paper studying the evolution of tax revenues and other sources of government income between 2007-08 and 2018-19 – respectively the last full year before the financial crisis and the last full year before the coronavirus crisis.

Robert Chote distils the key messages from our latest Economic and fiscal outlook – published today – in his press conference presentation and accompanying speaking note.

The Chancellor has announced the largest sustained fiscal loosening since Norman Lamont’s pre-election Budget in 1992. In the medium term, this takes real day-to-day spending per person back to pre-austerity levels. But the domestic effects of the coronavirus outbreak and the Government’s response to it came too late to include in our forecasts, which are…

In addition to its impact on public health, the coronavirus is likely to have a significant adverse effect on the economy and public finances in coming quarters. But neither the size nor the duration of this effect are possible to predict with any confidence. The Chief Medical Officer has declared that an epidemic in the…