"It is the duty of the Office to examine and report on the sustainability of the public finances"
Since the publication of our October 2024 Economic and fiscal outlook (EFO) we have received a request for further information on our forecast for static costing of the changes to employer National Insurance contributions. We have published this new supplementary forecast information below and on the October 2024 EFO page.
Since the publication of our March 2025 Economic and fiscal outlook (EFO) we have received a request for further information on our forecast for changes in public sector net debt. We have published this new supplementary forecast information below and on the March 2025 EFO page.
In this paper, we present a new overlapping generations model of the UK economy. It takes a detailed approach to real-world trends around demographics, life-cycle behaviour and differences within and between generations, all in a general equilibrium setting. Calibrated to match UK economic data and reflect key features of our tax, spending and welfare systems,…
Richard Hughes distils the key messages from our latest Economic and fiscal outlook in his press conference presentation and accompanying speaking note.
We have released additional information on the methodology and assumptions underlying our migration analysis in our 2024 Fiscal risks and sustainability report (FRS). We have published this new supplementary forecast information below and on the September 2024 FRS page.
We have published an update to the Welsh taxes outlook with new forecasts for land transaction tax and landfill disposals tax receipts, alongside evaluations of our previous forecasts including for the Welsh rates of income tax. The report is available in English and Welsh. Welsh taxes outlook – December 2024 Rhagolwg trethi Cymreig – Rhagfyr…
The OBR’s non-executive members commissioned Laura van Geest, former head of the Netherlands Bureau of Economic Policy Analysis (CPB) to lead the third external review of the work of the OBR in May 2024. The review concludes that “Over the last five years, the OBR has successfully navigated a series of unprecedented economic and fiscal…
The third external review of the work of the OBR, led by Laura van Geest, will be published on Monday 10 February.
Since the publication of our October 2024 Economic and fiscal outlook (EFO) we have received requests for further information on the costing of changes to carried interest, non-domicile regime, and IHT on pensions measures. We have published this new supplementary forecast information below and on the October 2024 EFO page.
Since the publication of our October 2024 Economic and fiscal outlook (EFO) we have received requests for further information on the costing of changes to agricultural and business property reliefs and capital gains tax measures. We have published this new supplementary forecast information below and on the October 2024 EFO page.