Category Archive: What’s new

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Supplementary forecast information on changes in public sector net debt

Since the publication of our March 2025 Economic and fiscal outlook (EFO) we have received a request for further information on our forecast for changes in public sector net debt. We have published this new supplementary forecast information below and on the March 2025 EFO page.

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Publication of working paper No.22: A new UK overlapping generations model

In this paper, we present a new overlapping generations model of the UK economy. It takes a detailed approach to real-world trends around demographics, life-cycle behaviour and differences within and between generations, all in a general equilibrium setting. Calibrated to match UK economic data and reflect key features of our tax, spending and welfare systems,…

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Supplementary forecast information on our FRS 2024 migration analysis

We have released additional information on the methodology and assumptions underlying our migration analysis in our 2024 Fiscal risks and sustainability report (FRS). We have published this new supplementary forecast information below and on the September 2024 FRS page.

Welsh taxes outlook

Welsh taxes outlook – February 2025

We have published an update to the Welsh taxes outlook with new forecasts for land transaction tax and landfill disposals tax receipts, alongside evaluations of our previous forecasts including for the Welsh rates of income tax. The report is available in English and Welsh. Welsh taxes outlook – December 2024 Rhagolwg trethi Cymreig – Rhagfyr…

External review of the OBR published

Third external review of the OBR published

The OBR’s non-executive members commissioned Laura van Geest, former head of the Netherlands Bureau of Economic Policy Analysis (CPB) to lead the third external review of the work of the OBR in May 2024. The review concludes that “Over the last five years, the OBR has successfully navigated a series of unprecedented economic and fiscal…