Category Archive: What’s new

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Supplementary forecast information release

Since the publication of our March 2021 Economic and fiscal outlook we have received a request for further detail on the ‘state pensions underpayment correction’ measure. We have published this new supplementary forecast information below and on the March 2021 EFO page.

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Exchange of letters between Rachel Reeves MP and Richard Hughes

Shadow Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster, Rachel Reeves MP and OBR Chair Richard Hughes have exchanged letters on the subject of the economic and fiscal implications of EU exit and impact of the UK-EU Trade and Cooperation Agreement on our forecasts. We have published these letters below.  

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Bronwyn Curtis re-appointed

The Chancellor of the Exchequer has announced that Bronwyn Curtis OBE has been re-appointed as a non-executive member of the OBR and Audit sub-Committee chair. Bronwyn Curtis said: “I am delighted to be re-appointed to the Oversight Board of the Office for Budget Responsibility. As we emerge from the pandemic, the role of the OBR…

Welfare trends report – March 2021

This year’s Welfare trends report (WTR) comes at the end of an extraordinary year that has resulted in the highest peacetime deficit in UK history. Virus-related support measures dominate that rise, but welfare spending (as defined in UK statistics, so not including the CJRS and SEISS) has also risen by £20.1 billion or 1.6 per…

cumulative public sector net borrowing

Record budget deficit could undershoot our latest forecast

Government borrowing remained high in February at £19.1 billion. With one month of the fiscal year remaining, borrowing has reached £278.8 billion. That far exceeds the previous annual record set at the height of the financial crisis in 2009-10 (£157.7 billion). But it looks set to undershoot our latest estimate for borrowing in 2020-21 (on…

cumulative public sector net borrowing

Record budget deficit could undershoot our latest forecast

Government borrowing remained high in February at £19.1 billion. With one month of the fiscal year remaining, borrowing has reached £278.8 billion. That far exceeds the previous annual record set at the height of the financial crisis in 2009-10 (£157.7 billion). But it looks set to undershoot our latest estimate for borrowing in 2020-21 (on…

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Supplementary forecast information release

Since the publication of our March 2021 Economic and fiscal outlook we have received a number of requests for further detail on our corporation tax, fuel duty, CJRS and EU financial settlement forecasts. We have published this new supplementary forecast information below and on the March 2021 EFO page.

Cumulative public sector net borrowing

Sharp rise in budget deficit is slower than expected

Government borrowing continued to rise in January, with monthly borrowing of £8.8 billion, despite a better-than-expected £24 billion of tax payments being made through self-assessment. Year-to-date borrowing has reached £271 billion, far exceeding the pre-virus annual record set at the height of the financial crisis in 2009-10 (£158 billion). We will publish our latest estimate…

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Budget deficit continues to rise sharply

The pace of government borrowing picked up further in December to reach £34.1 billion, the highest monthly total since May. Year-to-date borrowing now stands at £270.8 billion, far exceeding the pre-virus annual record set at the peak of the financial crisis (£158 billion). The reimposition of a national lockdown in early January means prospects for the…