"It is the duty of the Office to examine and report on the sustainability of the public finances"
Since the publication of our November 2025 Economic and fiscal outlook (EFO) we have received requests for further detail on a range of policy costings, including changes to capital gains tax relief for qualifying disposals to employee ownership trusts, reforms to the non‑domicile regime, the introduction of a high‑value council tax surcharge, changes to the…
The window in which we took average interest rates and market determinants for incorporation into the final pre-measures economy forecast was the 10 working days to 22 January. This window for interest rates in the final pre-measures fiscal forecast was the 10 working days to 30 January. This EFO will be published on the HM…
The rapid Investigation into November 2025 EFO publication error, published in December 2025, recommended that a deeper examination of recent Economic and fiscal outlook (EFO) events be urgently carried out with expert support. The National Cyber Security Centre (NCSC) agreed to carry out this work and its report has been published today: The NCSC report…
Since the publication of our November 2025 Economic and fiscal outlook (EFO) we have received a request for further detail on both our costing of applying national insurance contributions to salary-sacrifice pension contributions, and the fiscal impact of bringing SEND spending into departmental budgets. We have published this new supplementary forecast information below and on…
Since the publication of our November 2025 Economic and fiscal outlook (EFO) we have received a request for further detail on our funded pensions forecasts. We have published this new supplementary forecast information below and on the November 2025 EFO page.
This morning’s ONS release estimates that borrowing in the first nine months of 2025-26 totalled £140.4 billion. This is £0.3 billion below the same period last year and £4.1 billion below the monthly profile consistent with our November forecast. Lower than expected borrowing for the year to date is explained by central government net borrowing, which is £2.8…
The Chancellor has commissioned the OBR to produce our next forecast on Tuesday 3 March 2026. We will publish an updated Economic and fiscal outlook on that day.
OBR Chair Richard Hughes has written to both the Chancellor and the Chair of the Commons Treasury Committee apologising for the fact that the OBR inadvertently made it possible to access the November 2025 Economic and fiscal outlook too early on 26 November.
Richard Hughes distils the key messages from our latest Economic and fiscal outlook in his press conference presentation and accompanying speaking note.
In this paper, published alongside the November 2025 Economic and fiscal outlook, we outline our approach to forecasting UK productivity growth. It reviews the UK’s productivity performance from historical and international perspectives as well as the outlook for productivity. The paper also sets out our central forecast and alternative scenarios.