"It is the duty of the Office to examine and report on the sustainability of the public finances"
Since the publication of our November 2025 Economic and fiscal outlook (EFO) we have received a request for further detail on the costing of government response to the loan charge independent review. We have published this new supplementary forecast information below and on the November 2025 EFO page.
Professor Jonathan Haskel was nominated as the next Chair of the Office for Budget Responsibility by the Chancellor in June. The House of Commons Treasury Committee has now confirmed his appointment, saying ‘We are satisfied that Professor Haskel has the appropriate professional competence and personal independence to carry out his role‘. Find out more on…
The Chancellor of the Exchequer has today nominated Professor David Miles CBE for reappointment to the Office for Budget Responsibility’s Budget Responsibility Committee (BRC) for a second and final term, subject to the approval of the House of Commons Treasury Committee. As a member of the BRC, Professor David Miles shares executive responsibility for the…
We have published a report setting out our response to the November 2025 Economic and fiscal outlook publication error and our progress against the recommendations of the resulting investigations. The report outlines our approach to web publishing, including interim arrangements using both GOV.UK and the OBR’s main website. It also explains the steps we have…
The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) was created in 2010 to provide independent and authoritative analysis of the UK’s public finances. We are seeking to appoint two non-executive members to the OBR’s Oversight Board, one to immediately replace Dame Susan Rice, whose first term ended on 19 June 2026, and one to replace Baroness Hogg…
Welfare fraud and error rates rose sharply during the Covid pandemic in 2020-21 and 2021-22, a period which also coincided with the rollout of universal credit. Our new analysis shows that the increase was mainly driven by those making new welfare claims during the pandemic, and so was likely primarily due to temporary operational easements…
The Chancellor of the Exchequer has announced that Baroness Hogg has been re-appointed as a non-executive member of the OBR. Tom Josephs and Professor David Miles said: “We are delighted that Baroness Hogg will be serving for a further year. We would like to record our immense gratitude for the invaluable contribution that Dame Susan…
We have now published our latest long-term assumptions, consistent with the forecast in our March 2026 Economic and fiscal outlook (EFO), below and on the March 2026 EFO page. These economic determinants that underpin our long-term fiscal projections are used by organisations inside and outside government to inform their own long-term modelling.
Building on the recommendations of the OBR’s 2025 external review, we are publishing an initial set of our areas of research interest (ARI). These detail the OBR’s priority research questions across four areas: economy forecasting and modelling; fiscal forecasting and modelling; economic and behavioural impacts of policy; and cross-cutting issues. For all engagement with the…
The window in which we took average interest rates and market determinants for incorporation into the final pre-measures economy forecast was the 10 working days to 22 January. This window for interest rates in the final pre-measures fiscal forecast was the 10 working days to 30 January. This EFO will be published on the HM…