Category Archive: What’s new

Halfway through the 2020-21 fiscal year, cumulative borrowing has reached £208 billion, £51 billion above full-year borrowing in 2009-10 (at the peak of the financial crisis). Year-to-date borrowing is still lower than assumed in the central scenario from our Fiscal sustainability report, as both GDP and tax receipts have fared better than assumed. But with a…

Less than halfway through the 2020-21 fiscal year, the budget deficit has already topped full-year borrowing in 2009-10 (at the peak of the financial crisis). Despite that, year-to-date borrowing is lower than assumed in the central scenario from our Fiscal sustainability report, as both GDP and tax receipts have fared less badly than assumed. With…

During its first decade in operation the Office for Budget Responsibility has established itself as a fixed part of the UK’s institutional landscape, delivering high quality publications, reducing bias in official forecasts and bringing greater transparency to the public finances, according to an external review led by the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development. The…

The budget deficit rose sharply again in July, topping £150 billion for the year-to-date and pushing public sector net debt over £2 trillion for the first time. But year-to-date borrowing is lower than in our Fiscal sustainability report central scenario. That reflects lower departmental spending and loan guarantee write-off costs that have yet to be…

The budget deficit continues to rise sharply. Three months into the 2020-21 fiscal year, tax payments received by HMRC are down by 35 per cent on last year, while central government spending is up 40 per cent. But year-to-date borrowing is lower than assumed in the central scenario from our Fiscal sustainability report. That reflects…

In June, the Chancellor nominated Richard Hughes as the next Chair of the Office for Budget Responsibility when Robert Chote ends his final term in October. The Treasury Select Committee has now confirmed the appointment. Find out more on the Treasury Select Committee’s website.

Robert Chote distils the key messages from our latest Fiscal sustainability report in his press conference presentation and accompanying speaking note.

The coronavirus outbreak and the public health measures taken to contain it have delivered one of the largest ever shocks to the UK economy and public finances. In the Fiscal sustainability report, our three medium-term scenarios (upside, central and downside) see the largest decline in annual GDP for 300 years this year, accompanied by an unprecedented…

On July 14 we will publish our latest Fiscal sustainability report, focusing on the impact of the coronavirus outbreak. This will present three alternative scenarios for the economy and the public finances over the medium-term, an assessment of their implications for fiscal sustainability and a discussion of fiscal risks over the medium and long-term. The…

May’s public finances data continue to show the budget deficit rising sharply. Two months into 2020-21, tax payments received by HMRC are down 43 per cent on the same period last year, while central government spending is up 48 per cent. Relative to our April scenario, initial estimates of both GDP and tax receipts have…