Category Archive: What’s new

Broad-based growth in tax receipts and lower debt interest spending continued to push the deficit down relative to last year in February. With only one month of 2018-19 to go, borrowing is down almost half relative to the same period in 2017-18 – broadly in line with our recent forecast.

Robert Chote distils the key messages from our latest Economic and fiscal outlook – published today – in his press conference presentation and accompanying speaking note.

The economic determinants that underpin our long-term fiscal projections are used by organisations inside and outside government to inform their own long-term modelling. Table 1.1 below presents our latest long-term assumptions, consistent with the central forecast in our March 2019 Economic and fiscal outlook (EFO). Table 1.1: Long-term economic determinants Annual growth rate, unless otherwise…

Stronger income tax receipts and lower debt interest payments have delivered the Chancellor a modest fiscal windfall. His higher public spending plans offset only a little of that, with most banked to provide greater headroom against his structural borrowing target in 2020-21. But he is still not yet on course to balance the budget by…

Economic growth in the UK and globally has slowed since the Budget in October, leading us to revise down our near-term GDP forecast. But tax receipts have performed better than we expected in the final months of 2018-19 and we judge that much of this buoyancy will endure. Together with downward pressure on debt interest…

Double-digit growth in tax receipts in January generated a record monthly budget surplus, up sharply relative to last year. Over the first ten months of 2018-19, borrowing is now down almost half relative to the same period in 2017-18 – a slightly larger fall than implied by our latest full-year forecast.

One of the main functions of the welfare system is to support people having difficulty supporting themselves due to ill health or disability. This role stretches back more than a century – at least as far as the National Insurance Act of 1911. The financial support provided by today’s welfare system can be split into…

Continued strength in receipts growth means borrowing over the first eight months of 2018-19 is down almost 30 per cent relative to the same period in 2017-18.

Higher spending growth in October pushed the deficit up relative to last October. But strong receipts growth means borrowing in the first seven months of 2018-19 is still down almost 30 per cent relative to the same period in 2017-18.

Since the publication of our October 2018 Economic and fiscal outlook we have received requests for further detail on the marriage tax allowance and entrepreneurial reliefs. We have published this new supplementary forecast information on the October 2018 EFO page.