Very strong spending growth outweighed strong receipts growth this month, leaving the usual January surplus smaller than it was a year ago. But, over the first ten months of 2019-20, borrowing continues to rise relative to the same period year, albeit at a slower pace than is implied by our latest full-year forecast.
Category Archive: What’s new
March HMRC cash receipts fall 5 per cent on last year
23 April 2020
Some initial effects of the unfolding coronavirus shock to the public finances are visible in the March cash data. Receipts fell sharply – particularly VAT, where payments have been deferred. Spending increased, in part due to the cost of business support measures. These effects have yet to feed through to the headline accruals measure of…
Evolution of receipts over the past decade
23 April 2020
We have published a new paper studying the evolution of tax revenues and other sources of government income between 2007-08 and 2018-19 – respectively the last full year before the financial crisis and the last full year before the coronavirus crisis.
The Chairman’s presentation on our latest economic and fiscal forecast
11 March 2020
Robert Chote distils the key messages from our latest Economic and fiscal outlook – published today – in his press conference presentation and accompanying speaking note.
Largest Budget giveaway since 1992
11 March 2020
The Chancellor has announced the largest sustained fiscal loosening since Norman Lamont’s pre-election Budget in 1992. In the medium term, this takes real day-to-day spending per person back to pre-austerity levels. But the domestic effects of the coronavirus outbreak and the Government’s response to it came too late to include in our forecasts, which are…
Overview of the March 2020 Economic and fiscal outlook
11 March 2020
In addition to its impact on public health, the coronavirus is likely to have a significant adverse effect on the economy and public finances in coming quarters. But neither the size nor the duration of this effect are possible to predict with any confidence. The Chief Medical Officer has declared that an epidemic in the…
Exchange of letters on OBR’s second forecast
27 February 2020
The OBR is legally required to produce two forecasts in each financial year. Because of the cancellation of the November Budget, our Economic and fiscal outlook on 11 March will be our first forecast in 2019-20. We have written to the Chancellor setting out a number of options for the second forecast and he has…
Welsh taxes outlook: February 2020
25 February 2020
On 25 February we published an update to the December 2019 Welsh taxes outlook to account for new data released this year. The report is available in English and Welsh language.
January surplus down on a year earlier
21 February 2020
Very strong spending growth outweighed strong receipts growth this month, leaving the usual January surplus smaller than it was a year ago. But, over the first ten months of 2019-20, borrowing continues to rise relative to the same period year, albeit at a slower pace than is implied by our latest full-year forecast.
Treasury launches search for new Chair of the OBR
23 January 2020
Today the Treasury has launched the recruitment campaign to find Robert Chote’s successor as the next Chair of the OBR. Robert has led the independent fiscal watchdog since 3 October 2010, and is therefore approaching the end of his second and final five-year term. The chair and other members of the Budget Responsibility Committee (BRC) are…
Year-to-date borrowing rises by less than anticipated
22 January 2020
Borrowing has risen so far this year, but at a slower rate than anticipated in our restated March forecast. With three months of the year to go, a number of uncertainties remain. January is a big month for receipts, while bonus season and end-year departmental spending are always sources of uncertainty.