"It is the duty of the Office to examine and report on the sustainability of the public finances"
Richard Hughes spoke at the conclusion of the National Institute of Economic and Social Research’s (NIESR) ‘Future fiscal frameworks’ event on Monday 26 April, highlighting the lessons of the last decade for economic forecasters.
The initial estimate of government borrowing for the 2020-21 fiscal year of £303.1 billion is roughly double the previous record set at the height of the financial crisis in 2009-10 (£157.7 billion). But it is £24.3 billion below our March forecast on a like-for-like basis (and £51.5 billion below it including loan write-offs that are…
Every two years the Office for Budget Responsibility produces a report on the fiscal risks facing the UK. Our next Fiscal risks report (FRR) is due to be released this summer. This FRR is being prepared in the wake of the largest fiscal risk to have crystallised in peacetime – the coronavirus pandemic – the economic and fiscal consequences of which continue to be felt. It will therefore…
Since the publication of our March 2021 Economic and fiscal outlook we have received a request for further detail on the ‘state pensions underpayment correction’ measure. We have published this new supplementary forecast information below and on the March 2021 EFO page.
Shadow Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster, Rachel Reeves MP and OBR Chair Richard Hughes have exchanged letters on the subject of the economic and fiscal implications of EU exit and impact of the UK-EU Trade and Cooperation Agreement on our forecasts. We have published these letters below.
The Chancellor of the Exchequer has announced that Bronwyn Curtis OBE has been re-appointed as a non-executive member of the OBR and Audit sub-Committee chair. Bronwyn Curtis said: “I am delighted to be re-appointed to the Oversight Board of the Office for Budget Responsibility. As we emerge from the pandemic, the role of the OBR…
This year’s Welfare trends report (WTR) comes at the end of an extraordinary year that has resulted in the highest peacetime deficit in UK history. Virus-related support measures dominate that rise, but welfare spending (as defined in UK statistics, so not including the CJRS and SEISS) has also risen by £20.1 billion or 1.6 per…
Government borrowing remained high in February at £19.1 billion. With one month of the fiscal year remaining, borrowing has reached £278.8 billion. That far exceeds the previous annual record set at the height of the financial crisis in 2009-10 (£157.7 billion). But it looks set to undershoot our latest estimate for borrowing in 2020-21 (on…
Since the publication of our March 2021 Economic and fiscal outlook we have received a number of requests for further detail on our corporation tax, fuel duty, CJRS and EU financial settlement forecasts. We have published this new supplementary forecast information below and on the March 2021 EFO page.
Government borrowing continued to rise in January, with monthly borrowing of £8.8 billion, despite a better-than-expected £24 billion of tax payments being made through self-assessment. Year-to-date borrowing has reached £271 billion, far exceeding the pre-virus annual record set at the height of the financial crisis in 2009-10 (£158 billion). We will publish our latest estimate…