Coronavirus has caused our economy to shrink 11 per cent this year – the largest drop in over 300 years. But the economy recovers its pre-virus level by the end of 2022. Support for public services, households and businesses costs £280 billion this year, pushing the deficit to £394 billion (19 per cent of GDP, the highest since 1944), and debt above 100 per cent of GDP (for the first time since 1960). Our central forecast shows £20-30 billion in spending cuts or tax rises would be required to balance revenues and day-to-day spending and stop debt from rising by the end of this Parliament.