Category Archive: Economic and fiscal outlook

Red box and EFO

Budget delivers large increases in spending, tax, and borrowing

The Budget increases spending by £70 billion annually, with two-thirds on current and one-third on capital spending. Half is funded through tax increases which raise £36 billion annually and push the tax take to a record 38 per cent of GDP. The rest is funded by £32 billion more borrowing annually which temporarily boosts GDP…

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Read the executive summary of the October 2024 Economic and fiscal outlook

Red box and EFO

October 2024 Economic and fiscal outlook

Our latest Economic and fiscal outlook will be published today alongside the Chancellor’s Autumn Budget. It will set out forecasts for the economy and the public finances, and an assessment of whether the Government is likely to achieve its fiscal targets.

Red box and EFO

October 2024 forecast timetable and details regarding the upcoming EFO

On 29 July 2024 the Chancellor announced that the Budget will be held on Wednesday 30 October and commissioned us to publish our latest outlook for the economy and public finances that day. We have now agreed the timetable for the forecast process and published the detail below. Update on 21 October: Financial market assumptions…

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Supplementary forecast information on environmental levies

Since the publication of our March 2024 Economic and fiscal outlook (EFO) we have received a request for further information underlying our environmental levies forecast. We have published this new supplementary forecast information below and on the March 2024 EFO page.

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Autumn 2024 forecast date announced

The Chancellor has announced that the Autumn Budget will take place on Wednesday 30 October 2024. Our latest outlook for the economy and public finances will be released on the same day.

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OBR review of the March 2024 forecast for Departmental Expenditure Limits

OBR Chair Richard Hughes has written to the Treasury Select Committee of the House of Commons to inform them that the OBR has initiated a review into the preparation of the Departmental Expenditure Limits (DEL) forecast for the March 2024 Economic and fiscal outlook (EFO). The review will conclude in advance of our next EFO…