Autumn 2026 forecast date announced
The Chancellor has commissioned the OBR to produce our next forecast on Wednesday 28 October 2026. We will publish an updated Economic and fiscal outlook on that day.
Category Archive: Economic and fiscal outlook
Supplementary forecast information release: Long-term economic determinants – March 2026
We have now published our latest long-term assumptions, consistent with the forecast in our March 2026 Economic and fiscal outlook (EFO), below and on the March 2026 EFO page. These economic determinants that underpin our long-term fiscal projections are used by organisations inside and outside government to inform their own long-term modelling.
Forecast little changed but fiscal context remains challenging
Government debt as a share of GDP has nearly tripled over two decades, borrowing has remained around 5 per cent of GDP for the past four years, and borrowing costs are among the highest of advanced economies. Against this challenging backdrop this interim forecast update is little changed from November. GDP growth averages 1½ per…
Spring 2026 forecast date announced
The Chancellor has commissioned the OBR to produce our next forecast on Tuesday 3 March 2026. We will publish an updated Economic and fiscal outlook on that day.
Resignation of Richard Hughes as Chair of OBR
Richard Hughes has written to the Chancellor of the Exchequer and Chair of the Treasury Select Committee to submit his resignation as Chair of the Office for Budget Responsibility. His letter of resignation is available below.
Investigation into November 2025 EFO publication error
The OBR inadvertently made it possible to access the November 2025 Economic and fiscal outlook (EFO) too early on Budget day. We launched an immediate investigation into what happened which has reported today, Monday 1 December. The full report is available below.
The Chair’s letters to the Chancellor and Chair of the Commons Treasury Committee
OBR Chair Richard Hughes has written to both the Chancellor and the Chair of the Commons Treasury Committee apologising for the fact that the OBR inadvertently made it possible to access the November 2025 Economic and fiscal outlook too early on 26 November.
The Chair’s presentation on our November 2025 economic and fiscal forecast
Richard Hughes distils the key messages from our latest Economic and fiscal outlook in his press conference presentation and accompanying speaking note.
Want a quick summary?
Read the executive summary of the November 2025 Economic and fiscal outlook.
November 2025 forecast timetable
On 3 September 2025 the Chancellor commissioned us to publish our latest outlook for the economy and public finances on Wednesday 26 November. We have now agreed the timetable for the forecast process and published the detail below. Update on 14 November: Financial market assumptions and the incorporation of outturn data The window in which…