"It is the duty of the Office to examine and report on the sustainability of the public finances"
We will publish our latest set of forecasts and scenarios for the economy and public finances alongside the Chancellor’s Spending Review on Wednesday 25 November. Our most recent estimate of public sector net borrowing for 2020-21 is £372.2 billion. This estimate was published in August and combines our Fiscal sustainability report central scenario and the…
November 2020 All policy costings presented to the Office for Budget Responsibility at the Spending Review 2020 were scrutinised and were certified as reasonable, central estimates were included in our forecasts. The Government’s Spending Review policy costings document briefly describes the methodologies underpinning these costings. In our November 2020 Economic and fiscal outlook we have…
Robert Chote distils the key messages from our latest Economic and fiscal outlook – published today – in his press conference presentation and accompanying speaking note.
March 2020 All policy costings presented to the Office for Budget Responsibility at Budget 2020 were scrutinised and were certified as reasonable, central estimates were included in our forecasts. The Government’s Budget 2020 policy costings document briefly describes the methodologies underpinning these costings. In our March 2020 Economic and fiscal outlook we have published an…
The Chancellor has announced the largest sustained fiscal loosening since Norman Lamont’s pre-election Budget in 1992. In the medium term, this takes real day-to-day spending per person back to pre-austerity levels. But the domestic effects of the coronavirus outbreak and the Government’s response to it came too late to include in our forecasts, which are…
In addition to its impact on public health, the coronavirus is likely to have a significant adverse effect on the economy and public finances in coming quarters. But neither the size nor the duration of this effect are possible to predict with any confidence. The Chief Medical Officer has declared that an epidemic in the…
The OBR is legally required to produce two forecasts in each financial year. Because of the cancellation of the November Budget, our Economic and fiscal outlook on 11 March will be our first forecast in 2019-20. We have written to the Chancellor setting out a number of options for the second forecast and he has…
We have restated our March 2019 borrowing forecast to include recent ONS statistical changes but have not incorporated any other new data, new judgements nor include an update to the economy forecast. After incorporating these changes, borrowing has increased materially by around £20bn each year. We wrote to the Treasury on 29 October about our intention to publish…
Publication of our restated forecast will no longer go ahead today following advice from the Cabinet Secretary. As we notified the Treasury and Treasury Select Committee on 29 October, we had planned to publish a technical restatement of our March public finance forecast this morning, bringing it into line with current ONS statistical treatment –…
The Chancellor used last week’s Spending Round to announce a significant increase in departmental spending in 2020-21. The OBR’s Budget Responsibility Committee gave evidence to the Treasury Select Committee today on the fiscal implications of the announcement. In addition, Robert Chote has written to the Interim Chair, John Mann, explaining our role during a spending…