Category Archive: Economic and fiscal outlook

Image of calendar with text 'New forecasts due on 25 November'

New forecasts due on 25 November

We will publish our latest set of forecasts and scenarios for the economy and public finances alongside the Chancellor’s Spending Review on Wednesday 25 November. Our most recent estimate of public sector net borrowing for 2020-21 is £372.2 billion. This estimate was published in August and combines our Fiscal sustainability report central scenario and the…

Policy costings document November 2020

November 2020 All policy costings presented to the Office for Budget Responsibility at the Spending Review 2020 were scrutinised and were certified as reasonable, central estimates were included in our forecasts. The Government’s Spending Review policy costings document briefly describes the methodologies underpinning these costings. In our November 2020 Economic and fiscal outlook we have…

Policy costings document March 2020

March 2020 All policy costings presented to the Office for Budget Responsibility at Budget 2020 were scrutinised and were certified as reasonable, central estimates were included in our forecasts. The Government’s Budget 2020 policy costings document briefly describes the methodologies underpinning these costings. In our March 2020 Economic and fiscal outlook we have published an…

Line chart comparing Budget policy packages between 1992 and 2020 to show that the Budget 2020 policy package is the biggest since 1992

Largest Budget giveaway since 1992

The Chancellor has announced the largest sustained fiscal loosening since Norman Lamont’s pre-election Budget in 1992. In the medium term, this takes real day-to-day spending per person back to pre-austerity levels. But the domestic effects of the coronavirus outbreak and the Government’s response to it came too late to include in our forecasts, which are…

5 things you need to know about our forecast: Pre-measures forecast closed in mid-February as usual. So recent coronavirus developments not reflected. Largest Budget package since 1992 adds £29 billion to borrowing in 2024-25. Budget completes reversal of Coalition departmental spending cuts. Some legislated targets missed, but Budget 2020 targets met.

Overview of the March 2020 Economic and fiscal outlook

In addition to its impact on public health, the coronavirus is likely to have a significant adverse effect on the economy and public finances in coming quarters. But neither the size nor the duration of this effect are possible to predict with any confidence. The Chief Medical Officer has declared that an epidemic in the…

Line chart showing difference in borrowing between March 2019 forecast and restated March 2019 forecast

Restated March 2019 forecast

We have restated our March 2019 borrowing forecast to include recent ONS statistical changes but have not incorporated any other new data, new judgements nor include an update to the economy forecast. After incorporating these changes, borrowing has increased materially by around £20bn each year. We wrote to the Treasury on 29 October about our intention to publish…

Letter and envelope graphic

Letter to Treasury Select Committee on Spending Round 2019 and our next forecast

The Chancellor used last week’s Spending Round to announce a significant increase in departmental spending in 2020-21. The OBR’s Budget Responsibility Committee gave evidence to the Treasury Select Committee today on the fiscal implications of the announcement. In addition, Robert Chote has written to the Interim Chair, John Mann, explaining our role during a spending…