Category Archive: What’s new

OBR Working Paper series

The latest in our series of Working Papers were published on 10 July 2014. Working Paper No.5 – Output gap measurement: judgement and uncertainty uses a range of methods to demonstrate the uncertainty of measuring the output gap and considers the appropriate definition in the context of examining the UK public finances.   Working Paper…

External review of the OBR

Kevin Page, former Parliamentary Budget Officer for Canada, has been appointed to lead an external review into the work of the OBR, consistent with the requirements of the legislation underpinning the OBR.    

Policy costings and our forecast

The Charter for Budget Responsibility requires that the OBR provides “independent scrutiny and certification of the Government’s policy costings”. Briefing paper No. 6: Policy costings and our forecast describes how we approach the costings process, including the roles of the Treasury and other relevant departments, and how we incorporate the impact of policy measures in…

Costing pre-election policy proposals

Robert Chote has given written and oral evidence to the Treasury Committee on the costing of party policy proposals in the run up to general elections.    

Autumn Statement 2013 Economic and fiscal outlook

Our Autumn Statement forecast was published on 5 December alongside the Autumn Statement. It contains forecasts for the UK economy and public finances to 2018-19 and our assessment of whether the Government is likely to achieve its fiscal mandate and supplementary target. The full document and supporting information is available on the main EFO page.

Exchange of letters between Ed Balls and Robert Chote

Robert Chote and Ed Balls have exchanged letters on the latter’s proposal that the OBR should provide independent scrutiny and certification of political parties’ proposed manifesto commitments on spending and tax.

Forecast evaluation report 2013

The economy has recovered much more slowly over the past three years than the OBR expected, but the impact on the public finances has been relatively modest in large part because our over-optimism has been concentrated in those areas of nominal income and spending that are relatively lightly taxed: investment rather than consumer spending and…

The macroeconomic model

The OBR uses a large-scale macroeconomic model to help produce our economic forecast. Briefing paper No. 5: The macroeconomic model sets out a detailed description of the latest version of the model.