"It is the duty of the Office to examine and report on the sustainability of the public finances"
This discussion paper sets out how public investment is accounted for in our fiscal forecast, before exploring the key transmission mechanisms through which it can affect potential output. It then outlines our proposed approach to modelling the impact of public investment on potential output. We assess the time lags between public investment and its impact…
Our latest report on Fiscal risks and sustainability (FRS) will be published on Thursday 12 September. The 2024 FRS report will focus on three areas: Climate change, where we will explore the potential fiscal costs of damage from a changing climate, supplementing our 2021 analysis of the fiscal cost of getting to net zero. Health,…
We have published monthly profiles for receipts, spending and borrowing in 2024-25, consistent with our October 2024 Economic and fiscal outlook, below and alongside our monthly commentary on the public finances.
In our November 2023 Economic and fiscal outlook (EFO), we analysed the economic impacts of the Government’s cuts to NICs and allowing full expensing of some business investments. We have published two papers providing further detail on the modelling behind our analysis below and on the November 2023 EFO page.
Our latest Forecast evaluation report (FER) will be published at 11am on Thursday 19 October. Our FER examines how our forecasts compare to subsequent outturn data and identifies lessons for future forecasts. This report will focus on how our March 2021 and March 2022 economy and fiscal forecasts for 2022-23 fared against the outturns.
The aftermath of the pandemic was characterised by a stronger-than-expected recovery in demand. But this bumped up against domestic and international supply constraints, which were compounded by the Russian invasion of Ukraine leading to a sharp rise in inflation. In this year’s Forecast evaluation report, we consider the accuracy of our forecast for the economic…
Borrowing in the first nine months of 2022-23 was £128.1 billion, up £5.1 billion on last year but £2.7 billion below our November forecast profile in the headline figures and £11.3 billion below profile on a like-for-like basis (correcting for a temporary difference in student loans figures in our forecast profile versus ONS outturn). This…
On 19 December the Chancellor announced that the Spring Budget 2023 will be held on Wednesday 15 March and commissioned us to publish our latest outlook for the economy and public finances that day. We have now agreed the timetable for the forecast process and published the detail below.
Over the past six months, the global energy and food supply shocks emanating from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine have intensified. The further curtailment of Russian imports saw European wholesale gas prices rise ten-fold from pre-pandemic levels, and markets now expect prices to remain four times higher in the medium term. Rising energy, food, and other…
Press briefing We will publish our latest Economic and fiscal outlook (EFO) on Thursday 17 November, once the Chancellor has completed his Autumn Statement in Parliament. Richard Hughes, OBR Chair, will present the main judgements and conclusions of the EFO live on Slido or on our YouTube channel at 2pm. There will be a Q&A…