Welfare trends report 2026 due 23 June
Our 2026 Welfare trends report will be published on Tuesday 23 June. This edition of our biennial report will examine fraud and error in the welfare system.
Category Archive: What’s new
Forecast evaluation report 2026 due 2 June
Our latest Forecast evaluation report (FER) will be published on Tuesday 2 June at 11am. Our FER examines how our forecasts compare to subsequent outturn data and identifies lessons for future forecasts. This report will focus on the performance of our July 2020, March 2023, and March 2024 forecasts for the fiscal year 2024-25 against…
OBR’s areas of research interest
Building on the recommendations of the OBR’s 2025 external review, we are publishing an initial set of our areas of research interest (ARI). These detail the OBR’s priority research questions across four areas: economy forecasting and modelling; fiscal forecasting and modelling; economic and behavioural impacts of policy; and cross-cutting issues. For all engagement with the…
Initial estimate of 2025-26 borrowing in line with forecast
This morning’s ONS release provides an initial estimate for full year 2025-26 public sector net borrowing of £132.0 billion. This is £19.8 billion below the latest full year estimate of borrowing in 2024-25. As the ONS states, this initial estimate should be seen as provisional and is typically revised in future. However, it is currently…
Supplementary forecast information on costings relating to the November 2025 Economic and fiscal outlook
Since the publication of our November 2025 Economic and fiscal outlook (EFO) we have received requests for further detail on a range of policy costings, including changes to capital gains tax relief for qualifying disposals to employee ownership trusts, reforms to the non‑domicile regime, the introduction of a high‑value council tax surcharge, changes to the…
March 2026 forecast publication and financial market assumptions
The window in which we took average interest rates and market determinants for incorporation into the final pre-measures economy forecast was the 10 working days to 22 January. This window for interest rates in the final pre-measures fiscal forecast was the 10 working days to 30 January. This EFO will be published on the HM…
Publication of the National Cyber Security Centre’s report into early access to Economic and fiscal outlooks
The rapid Investigation into November 2025 EFO publication error, published in December 2025, recommended that a deeper examination of recent Economic and fiscal outlook (EFO) events be urgently carried out with expert support. The National Cyber Security Centre (NCSC) agreed to carry out this work and its report has been published today: The NCSC report…
Supplementary forecast information on salary-sacrifice pension contributions and SEND spending
Since the publication of our November 2025 Economic and fiscal outlook (EFO) we have received a request for further detail on both our costing of applying national insurance contributions to salary-sacrifice pension contributions, and the fiscal impact of bringing SEND spending into departmental budgets. We have published this new supplementary forecast information below and on…
Supplementary forecast information on our funded pensions forecast
Since the publication of our November 2025 Economic and fiscal outlook (EFO) we have received a request for further detail on our funded pensions forecasts. We have published this new supplementary forecast information below and on the November 2025 EFO page.
Year to date borrowing slightly below forecast profile
This morning’s ONS release estimates that borrowing in the first nine months of 2025-26 totalled £140.4 billion. This is £0.3 billion below the same period last year and £4.1 billion below the monthly profile consistent with our November forecast. Lower than expected borrowing for the year to date is explained by central government net borrowing, which is £2.8…