We will publish our latest Economic and fiscal outlook (EFO) on Thursday 17 November, once the Chancellor has completed his Autumn Statement in Parliament.
Richard Hughes, OBR Chair, will present the main judgements and conclusions of the EFO live on Slido or on our YouTube channel at 2pm. There will be a Q&A session with the Budget Responsibility Committee directly after the presentation. Questions can be submitted via Slido.
Interest rates and other financial market assumptions
On 4 November we published a timetable that sets out the timing of forecast rounds that we have sent to the Chancellor during the process. Moving the date of the Autumn Statement from 31 October to 17 November has allowed us to incorporate more recent market data. As far as possible, our forecast for the public finances will be conditioned on average interest rates and other market determinants over the period 24 October to 4 November. Because we need to finalise our economy forecast before completing the fiscal forecast, it will be based on a shorter window of 24 October to 26 October.
EFO and supporting documents
The main document and all of the associated supporting material will be published on our website at around 12:30 – once the Chancellor’s statement is complete.
This forecast process has been unusually uncertain, with various changes to both internal and public deadlines for forecast rounds, policy changes and publication dates. In light of these circumstances, readers should expect a shorter EFO than usual – we have reduced some of the more detailed description of some aspects of the forecast, but all of the key information will remain accessible via the document and on our website. We will also be publishing a more limited Devolved tax and spending forecast and supplementary Excel tables on the day for the same reason, with some published at a later date rather than alongside the main EFO. Please get in touch if you would like further details on what we expect to be available and when. We will also publish Briefing Paper No. 8: Forecasting potential output – the supply side of the economy, alongside the EFO.