"It is the duty of the Office to examine and report on the sustainability of the public finances"
This paper presents a small model of the UK economy extended to take account of credit risk premia and unconventional monetary policy. It can be used to run simulations or provide alternative economic scenarios. The model can be applied to provide some indication of how the stance of monetary policy might adjust in response to…
This working paper reassesses the size of the cyclical adjustment coefficients considering a range of approaches. Using these coefficients and the OBR’s historical output gap series we produce an updated historical series for structural net borrowing. We have also published a database of all the major tax policy measures announced in Budgets since 1970.
In our latest Briefing paper we set out our approach to presenting uncertainty both about the outlook for the economy and about the performance of revenues and spending in any given state of the economy.