May’s public finances data continue to show the budget deficit rising sharply. Two months into 2020-21, tax payments received by HMRC are down 43 per cent on the same period last year, while central government spending is up 48 per cent. Relative to our April scenario, initial estimates of both GDP and tax receipts have fallen slightly less sharply than we assumed. Debt is estimated to have topped 100 per cent of GDP for the first time since the early 1960s.