On 3 September 2025 the Chancellor commissioned us to publish our latest outlook for the economy and public finances on Wednesday 26 November.
We have now agreed the timetable for the forecast process and published the detail below.
Update on 14 November:
Financial market assumptions and the incorporation of outturn data
The window in which we took average interest rates and market determinants for incorporation into the final pre-measures economy forecast was the ten working days to 10 October. [1]
Given the time between the closure of the pre-measures economy forecast and the publication of our EFO, we decided prior to beginning this forecast that we would take a later reading of market expectations for Bank Rate and gilt yields for our pre-measures fiscal forecast. This window for interest rates in the final pre-measures fiscal forecast was the ten working days to 21 October.
This forecast also incorporates recent economy and public sector finances outturn data and the 2025 Blue Book revisions to GDP data, which were incorporated into the Quarterly National Accounts published on 30 September 2025. When we present fiscal aggregates relative to GDP in the EFO, we will ‘re-base’ our March 2025 forecast for these Blue Book revisions, in order to make like-for-like comparisons.
The remaining stages of the forecast, that incorporate the direct effect of the Chancellor’s policy announcements and their expected impact on the economy, will be completed on 21 November.