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The budget deficit continued to fall in April 2022, with borrowing of £18.6 billion down £5.6 billion on last year and just £0.6 billion below our most recent forecast profile. By contrast the more timely data from cash receipts were particularly strong, up 18.5 per cent on last April and £6.4 billion (10.2 per cent)…

The pandemic caused the deepest recession in the UK in living memory, prompted the largest fiscal policy response outside the World Wars, and has, so far, been followed by an unusually rapid economic recovery. The past two years also reshaped welfare spending and can be expected to continue to do so. So this year’s Welfare…

The initial full-year estimate of government borrowing in 2021-22 is £151.8 billion, less than half the 2020-21 figure but £24.0 billion above our March forecast (and £16.7 billion above it on a like-for-like basis). This surprise relative to forecast is largely due to higher-than-expected central government spending, which outweighed stronger-than-expected receipts. The like-for-like surprise could…

Our policy measures database collates tax measures since 1970, and spending measures since June Budget 2010. Search for a particular fiscal event, policy, or type of measure in this large database.

Our historical official forecast database includes just over 100 variables from June 2010 forecast to the most recent March 2022 forecast. Generate charts and compare with outturns in our handy database.

Richard Hughes, Chair of the OBR, explains the top 5 takeaways from our report.

The public finances have emerged from the pandemic in better shape than expected. But Russia’s invasion of Ukraine will push inflation to a 40-year high of almost 9 per cent, and living standards are set for a historic fall over the next 12 months. The Chancellor used his Spring Statement to deliver rebates and tax…

Richard Hughes distils the key messages from our latest Economic and fiscal outlook in his press conference presentation and accompanying speaking note.

Our latest Economic and fiscal outlook will be published today alongside the Chancellor’s Spring Statement. It will set out forecasts for the economy and the public finances, and an assessment of whether the Government is likely to achieve its fiscal targets.

We will publish our latest Economic and fiscal outlook (EFO) on Wednesday 23 March, once the Chancellor has completed his Spring Statement in Parliament. The EFO will present our latest forecast for the economy and public finances, which will include all policy measures announced since our previous forecast in October (including the February energy package)….