"It is the duty of the Office to examine and report on the sustainability of the public finances"
We have now published our latest long-term assumptions, consistent with the forecast in our March 2026 Economic and fiscal outlook (EFO), below and on the March 2026 EFO page. These economic determinants that underpin our long-term fiscal projections are used by organisations inside and outside government to inform their own long-term modelling.
This morning’s ONS release revised down borrowing estimates for 2025-26 by £3 billion. Borrowing over 2025-26 is now estimated at £129 billion, which is £3.7 billion below our March forecast. Initial estimates for the month of April 2026 suggest that borrowing totalled £24.3 billion. This is £3.4 billion above the monthly profile consistent with our…
Our latest Fiscal risks and sustainability report (FRS) will be published on Tuesday 7 July. It will be launched at the Darlington Economic Campus. The 2026 FRS will update the long-run fiscal projections, focusing on the following components: The economy, where we will examine the implications of updated economic and demographic assumptions, such as productivity growth…
Our 2026 Welfare trends report will be published on Tuesday 23 June. This edition of our biennial report will examine fraud and error in the welfare system.
Our latest Forecast evaluation report (FER) will be published on Tuesday 2 June at 11am. Our FER examines how our forecasts compare to subsequent outturn data and identifies lessons for future forecasts. This report will focus on the performance of our July 2020, March 2023, and March 2024 forecasts for the fiscal year 2024-25 against…
Building on the recommendations of the OBR’s 2025 external review, we are publishing an initial set of our areas of research interest (ARI). These detail the OBR’s priority research questions across four areas: economy forecasting and modelling; fiscal forecasting and modelling; economic and behavioural impacts of policy; and cross-cutting issues. For all engagement with the…
This morning’s ONS release provides an initial estimate for full year 2025-26 public sector net borrowing of £132.0 billion. This is £19.8 billion below the latest full year estimate of borrowing in 2024-25. As the ONS states, this initial estimate should be seen as provisional and is typically revised in future. However, it is currently…
Since the publication of our November 2025 Economic and fiscal outlook (EFO) we have received requests for further detail on a range of policy costings, including changes to capital gains tax relief for qualifying disposals to employee ownership trusts, reforms to the non‑domicile regime, the introduction of a high‑value council tax surcharge, changes to the…
Government debt as a share of GDP has nearly tripled over two decades, borrowing has remained around 5 per cent of GDP for the past four years, and borrowing costs are among the highest of advanced economies. Against this challenging backdrop this interim forecast update is little changed from November. GDP growth averages 1½ per…
The window in which we took average interest rates and market determinants for incorporation into the final pre-measures economy forecast was the 10 working days to 22 January. This window for interest rates in the final pre-measures fiscal forecast was the 10 working days to 30 January. This EFO will be published on the HM…