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Our latest Forecast evaluation report (FER) will be published on Tuesday 1 July. Our FER examines how our forecasts compare to subsequent outturn data and identifies lessons for future forecasts. This report will focus on the performance of our March 2019, March 2022, and March 2023 Economic and fiscal outlook (EFO) for the fiscal year…

Since the publication of our March 2025 Economic and fiscal outlook (EFO) we have received a request for further detail on key fiscal aggregates for our trade scenarios. We have published this new supplementary forecast information below and on the March 2025 EFO page.

The Chancellor has today nominated Richard Hughes as Chair of the OBR for a second and final five-year term of office, subject to the approval of the Treasury Committee of the House of Commons. The OBR’s Chair, alongside other Budget Responsibility Committee (BRC) members, has executive responsibility for the OBR and is responsible for judgements…

We have published monthly profiles for receipts, spending and borrowing in 2025-26, consistent with our March 2025 Economic and fiscal outlook, below and alongside our monthly commentary on the public finances.

Our latest report on Fiscal risks and sustainability (FRS) will be published on Tuesday 8 July. It will be launched at a press conference in Liverpool. The 2025 FRS report will focus on three current pressures on the public finances and provide an update on the risk register: Climate change, where we will update our estimates of…

Since the publication of our October 2024 Economic and fiscal outlook (EFO) we have received a request for further information on our forecast for static costing of the changes to employer National Insurance contributions. We have published this new supplementary forecast information below and on the October 2024 EFO page.

Since the publication of our March 2025 Economic and fiscal outlook (EFO) we have received a request for further information on our forecast for changes in public sector net debt. We have published this new supplementary forecast information below and on the March 2025 EFO page.

This morning’s ONS release provides an initial estimate for 2024-25 public sector net borrowing of £151.9 billion. This is £20.7 billion above the previous year and £14.6 billion above our March forecast. As the ONS state, this initial estimate should be seen as provisional and is typically revised in future. However, the current difference with…

In this paper, we present a new overlapping generations model of the UK economy. It takes a detailed approach to real-world trends around demographics, life-cycle behaviour and differences within and between generations, all in a general equilibrium setting. Calibrated to match UK economic data and reflect key features of our tax, spending and welfare systems,…

Richard Hughes, Chair of the OBR, explains the top 5 takeaways from our report.