"It is the duty of the Office to examine and report on the sustainability of the public finances"
Since the publication of our September 2024 Fiscal risks and sustainability (FRS) report, we have received a request for further detail on our long-term fiscal projections. We have published this new supplementary forecast information below and on the September 2024 FRS page.
Since the publication of our October 2024 Economic and fiscal outlook (EFO) we have received requests for further information on our carbon price forecast and detail underlying our environmental levies forecast. We have published this new supplementary forecast information below and on the October 2024 EFO page.
Richard Hughes distils the key messages from our latest Economic and fiscal outlook in his press conference presentation and accompanying speaking note.
Richard Hughes, Chair of the OBR, explains the top 5 takeaways from our report.
Read our Review and letter to the Chair of the Treasury Select Committee.
The Budget increases spending by £70 billion annually, with two-thirds on current and one-third on capital spending. Half is funded through tax increases which raise £36 billion annually and push the tax take to a record 38 per cent of GDP. The rest is funded by £32 billion more borrowing annually which temporarily boosts GDP…
Read the executive summary of the October 2024 Economic and fiscal outlook
On 25 October, the Shadow Chancellor, Rt. Hon. Jeremy Hunt MP sent an email to Chair Richard Hughes regarding the March 2024 DEL forecast review. Richard Hughes replied on 27 October. Both are available below.
Our latest Forecast evaluation report examines the performance of our March 2023 forecast and scenarios and draws lessons for future exercises. During 2023-24, GDP growth was close to zero and in line with our forecast. Despite rapid falls in energy prices, inflation was still higher than we forecast due to more substantial pass-through of prior…
The proportion of the working-age population in receipt of incapacity benefits reached a post-financial crisis high of 7.0 per cent in 2023-24 and is forecast to continue rising. This Welfare trends report focuses on the operation of the incapacity benefits system since 2010. Only a minority of the rise in incapacity benefits onflows over the…