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Supplementary forecast information release

Since the publication of our October 2021 Economic and fiscal outlook (EFO) we have received a request for further detail on the impact of policy changes on the number of taxpayers by band. We have published this new supplementary forecast information below and on the October 2021 EFO page.

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Spring 2022 forecast date announced

The Chancellor has announced that the Spring 2022 forecast will take place on Wednesday 23 March. That day we will release the latest outlook for the economy and public finances.

Welsh taxes outlook

Welsh taxes outlook

The December 2021 Welsh taxes outlook sets out our forecasts for each of the devolved Welsh taxes: Welsh rates of income tax, land transaction tax and landfill disposals tax.

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Prof David Miles CBE appointed to the Committee

The Treasury Select Committee has today approved the appointment of Prof. David Miles CBE to the Budget Responsibility Committee, following a hearing before MPs on 15 December. David will formally begin his appointment in January, replacing Prof Sir. Charlie Bean who steps down at the end of this year. We thank Prof Sir Charlie Bean…

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Forecast evaluation report – December 2021

The pandemic delivered one of the largest peacetime shocks to the UK economy in history last year. And that resulted in the largest forecast errors on record. But, as we document in this year’s Forecast evaluation report, it also provided several important lessons about economic and fiscal forecasting as such a large and novel shock…

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Monthly profiles and ready reckoners

On 9 December alongside the Forecast evaluation report, we published monthly profiles for receipts, spending and borrowing in 2021-22 consistent with our October 2021 Economic and fiscal outlook, updated ready reckoners and a working paper on how to improve the representation of uncertainty around our central forecasts.    

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Evaluating forecast uncertainty

Our latest working paper presents a new methodology to improve the representation of uncertainty around our central forecasts.

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Have your say!

Please take a few minutes to fill out our questionnaire on the Economic and fiscal outlook, so we can ensure our work meets your needs.

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Non-executive members review the Budget timetable decision-making process

The independent non-executive directors of the OBR have undertaken a review of the decision-making process around the forecast timetable for the Autumn 2021 Budget to inform the forthcoming review of the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU). The previous MoU review in 2017 was confined to government stakeholders involved in the forecast process. In this case, to…