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Line chart showing cumulative public sector net borrowing

Cash tax receipts outperform our forecast in April

The budget deficit continued to fall in April 2022, with borrowing of £18.6 billion down £5.6 billion on last year and just £0.6 billion below our most recent forecast profile. By contrast the more timely data from cash receipts were particularly strong, up 18.5 per cent on last April and £6.4 billion (10.2 per cent)…

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Welfare trends report – May 2022

The pandemic caused the deepest recession in the UK in living memory, prompted the largest fiscal policy response outside the World Wars, and has, so far, been followed by an unusually rapid economic recovery. The past two years also reshaped welfare spending and can be expected to continue to do so. So this year’s Welfare…

Cumulative borrowing chart

2021-22 budget deficit exceeds March 2022 forecast

The initial full-year estimate of government borrowing in 2021-22 is £151.8 billion, less than half the 2020-21 figure but £24.0 billion above our March forecast (and £16.7 billion above it on a like-for-like basis). This surprise relative to forecast is largely due to higher-than-expected central government spending, which outweighed stronger-than-expected receipts. The like-for-like surprise could…

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Policy measures

Our policy measures database collates tax measures since 1970, and spending measures since June Budget 2010. Search for a particular fiscal event, policy, or type of measure in this large database.

Historical forecast database

Historical forecasts

Our historical official forecast database includes just over 100 variables from June 2010 forecast to the most recent March 2022 forecast. Generate charts and compare with outturns in our handy database.

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March 2022 Economic and fiscal outlook

Our latest Economic and fiscal outlook will be published today alongside the Chancellor’s Spring Statement. It will set out forecasts for the economy and the public finances, and an assessment of whether the Government is likely to achieve its fiscal targets.