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The Chancellor has announced that the Autumn Statement 2023 will take place on Wednesday 22 November. Our latest outlook for the economy and public finances will be released on the same day.

Borrowing in the first four months of 2023-24 totalled £56.6 billion, £13.7 billion above the same period last year but £11.3 billion below the monthly profile consistent with our March forecast. The downside surprise is more than explained by higher central government receipts (£10.4 billion above profile), reflecting stronger nominal tax bases, alongside lower borrowing…

Our latest working paper, The OBR’s forecast performance, provides a comprehensive evaluation of the OBR’s economic and fiscal forecasting record since we were established in 2010. We assess how our 27 forecasts have performed against outturn over the past 13 years and look at how our forecasting record compares to other UK and international forecasters….

In early 2023, we sought expressions of interest for membership of our advisory panel from academics, economists, researchers and industry specialists with expertise in at least one of these six categories: macroeconomics and econometrics; public sector finances and public economics; financial markets and corporate finance; energy and climate change; health and longevity; and labour market…

Borrowing in the first three months of 2023-24 totalled £54.4 billion, £12.2 billion above the same period last year but £7.5 billion below the monthly profile consistent with our March forecast. This downside surprise is more than explained by higher central government receipts (£7.7 billion above profile) thanks to surpluses across the three major taxes…

Richard Hughes distils the key messages from our latest Fiscal risks and sustainability report in his press conference presentation and accompanying speaking note.

The Chancellor has approved the appointment of Baroness Hogg and Dame Susan Rice as non-executive members of the Office for Budget Responsibility. Sarah Hogg and Susan Rice have been appointed to continue the work of the oversight board and audit committee as Sir Chris Kelly and Bronwyn Curtis CBE complete their final terms over the…

Andy King will step down as fiscal expert on the OBR’s Budget Responsibility Committee following the conclusion of his five-year term at the end of August. Andy joined the OBR in 2013 as Chief of Staff and was appointed to the BRC in 2018. Before that, he worked in the Treasury in a variety of…

We have published our latest long-term assumptions, consistent with the forecast in our March 2023 Economic and fiscal outlook (EFO). These economic determinants that underpin our long-term fiscal projections are used by organisations inside and outside government to inform their own long-term modelling.

We have published monthly profiles for receipts, spending and borrowing in 2023-24, consistent with our March 2023 Economic and fiscal outlook, below and alongside our monthly commentary on the public finances.