"It is the duty of the Office to examine and report on the sustainability of the public finances"
The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) was created in 2010 to provide independent and authoritative analysis of the UK’s public finances. We are seeking to appoint two non-executive members to the OBR’s Oversight Board, one to immediately replace Dame Susan Rice, whose first term ended on 19 June 2026, and one to replace Baroness Hogg…
The Chancellor has nominated Prof. Jonathan Haskel CBE, Professor of Economics at Imperial College London and former Monetary Policy Committee member at the Bank of England, as the next Chair of the Office for Budget Responsibility. If the nomination is approved by the Treasury Committee, he would take up his post later this year. Professor…
Welfare fraud and error rates rose sharply during the Covid pandemic in 2020-21 and 2021-22, a period which also coincided with the rollout of universal credit. Our new analysis shows that the increase was mainly driven by those making new welfare claims during the pandemic, and so was likely primarily due to temporary operational easements…
The Chancellor of the Exchequer has announced that Baroness Hogg has been re-appointed as a non-executive member of the OBR. Tom Josephs and Professor David Miles said: “We are delighted that Baroness Hogg will be serving for a further year. We would like to record our immense gratitude for the invaluable contribution that Dame Susan…
We have now published our latest long-term assumptions, consistent with the forecast in our March 2026 Economic and fiscal outlook (EFO), below and on the March 2026 EFO page. These economic determinants that underpin our long-term fiscal projections are used by organisations inside and outside government to inform their own long-term modelling.
This morning’s ONS release revised down borrowing estimates for 2025-26 by £3 billion. Borrowing over 2025-26 is now estimated at £129 billion, which is £3.7 billion below our March forecast. Initial estimates for the month of April 2026 suggest that borrowing totalled £24.3 billion. This is £3.4 billion above the monthly profile consistent with our…
Our latest Fiscal risks and sustainability report (FRS) will be published on Tuesday 7 July. It will be launched at the Darlington Economic Campus. The 2026 FRS will update the long-run fiscal projections, focusing on the following components: The economy, where we will examine the implications of updated economic and demographic assumptions, such as productivity growth…
Our 2026 Welfare trends report will be published on Tuesday 23 June. This edition of our biennial report will examine fraud and error in the welfare system.
Our latest Forecast evaluation report (FER) will be published on Tuesday 2 June at 11am. Our FER examines how our forecasts compare to subsequent outturn data and identifies lessons for future forecasts. This report will focus on the performance of our July 2020, March 2023, and March 2024 forecasts for the fiscal year 2024-25 against…
Building on the recommendations of the OBR’s 2025 external review, we are publishing an initial set of our areas of research interest (ARI). These detail the OBR’s priority research questions across four areas: economy forecasting and modelling; fiscal forecasting and modelling; economic and behavioural impacts of policy; and cross-cutting issues. For all engagement with the…