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This morning’s ONS release provides an initial estimate for full year 2025-26 public sector net borrowing of £132.0 billion. This is £19.8 billion below the latest full year estimate of borrowing in 2024-25. As the ONS states, this initial estimate should be seen as provisional and is typically revised in future. However, it is currently…

Since the publication of our November 2025 Economic and fiscal outlook (EFO) we have received requests for further detail on a range of policy costings, including changes to capital gains tax relief for qualifying disposals to employee ownership trusts, reforms to the non‑domicile regime, the introduction of a high‑value council tax surcharge, changes to the…

Government debt as a share of GDP has nearly tripled over two decades, borrowing has remained around 5 per cent of GDP for the past four years, and borrowing costs are among the highest of advanced economies. Against this challenging backdrop this interim forecast update is little changed from November. GDP growth averages 1½ per…

The window in which we took average interest rates and market determinants for incorporation into the final pre-measures economy forecast was the 10 working days to 22 January. This window for interest rates in the final pre-measures fiscal forecast was the 10 working days to 30 January. This EFO will be published on the HM…

The rapid Investigation into November 2025 EFO publication error, published in December 2025, recommended that a deeper examination of recent Economic and fiscal outlook (EFO) events be urgently carried out with expert support. The National Cyber Security Centre (NCSC) agreed to carry out this work and its report has been published today: The NCSC report…

Since the publication of our November 2025 Economic and fiscal outlook (EFO) we have received a request for further detail on both our costing of applying national insurance contributions to salary-sacrifice pension contributions, and the fiscal impact of bringing SEND spending into departmental budgets. We have published this new supplementary forecast information below and on…

Since the publication of our November 2025 Economic and fiscal outlook (EFO) we have received a request for further detail on our funded pensions forecasts. We have published this new supplementary forecast information below and on the November 2025 EFO page.

This morning’s ONS release estimates that borrowing in the first nine months of 2025-26 totalled £140.4 billion. This is £0.3 billion below the same period last year and £4.1 billion below the monthly profile consistent with our November forecast. Lower than expected borrowing for the year to date is explained by central government net borrowing, which is £2.8…

Richard Hughes has written to the Chancellor of the Exchequer and Chair of the Treasury Select Committee to submit his resignation as Chair of the Office for Budget Responsibility. His letter of resignation is available below.

The OBR inadvertently made it possible to access the November 2025 Economic and fiscal outlook (EFO) too early on Budget day. We launched an immediate investigation into what happened which has reported today, Monday 1 December. The full report is available below.