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Welsh taxes outlook

Welsh taxes outlook – December 2024

In accordance with the fiscal framework agreed by the Welsh and UK Governments, we are formally commissioned by the Welsh Government to produce independent forecasts for devolved Welsh taxes alongside its Draft Budgets. On 10 December we published our forecasts for devolved Welsh taxes in our 2024 Welsh taxes outlook (WTO). The report is available…

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Supplementary forecast information on our long-term fiscal projections

Since the publication of our September 2024 Fiscal risks and sustainability (FRS) report, we have received a request for further detail on our long-term fiscal projections. We have published this new supplementary forecast information below and on the September 2024 FRS page.

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Review of the March 2024 forecast for departmental expenditure limits

Alongside the October 2024 Economic and fiscal outlook we published our Review of the March 2024 departmental expenditure limits (DEL) forecast. We also wrote to the Chair of the Treasury Select Committee with the findings, recommendations and answers to questions received about the review process.

Forecast evaluation report October 2025

Forecast evaluation report 2024

Our latest Forecast evaluation report examines the performance of our March 2023 forecast and scenarios and draws lessons for future exercises. During 2023-24, GDP growth was close to zero and in line with our forecast. Despite rapid falls in energy prices, inflation was still higher than we forecast due to more substantial pass-through of prior…

Public debt projected to exceed 270 per cent of GDP by the mid-2070s

Based on current policy and the latest demographic projections, public debt is projected to almost triple from under 100 per cent of GDP to over 270 per cent of GDP over the next 50 years. The estimated damage to the economy and public finances from a changing climate could add between 20 and 30 per…

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Public investment and potential output

This discussion paper sets out how public investment is accounted for in our fiscal forecast, before exploring the key transmission mechanisms through which it can affect potential output. It then outlines our proposed approach to modelling the impact of public investment on potential output. We assess the time lags between public investment and its impact…

Annual report on forecast accuracy due on 19 October

Forecast evaluation report – October 2023

Our latest Forecast evaluation report (FER) will be published at 11am on Thursday 19 October. Our FER examines how our forecasts compare to subsequent outturn data and identifies lessons for future forecasts. This report will focus on how our March 2021 and March 2022 economy and fiscal forecasts for 2022-23 fared against the outturns.