"It is the duty of the Office to examine and report on the sustainability of the public finances"
Since the publication of our October 2024 Economic and fiscal outlook (EFO) we have received requests for further information on the costing of changes to agricultural and business property reliefs and capital gains tax measures. We have published this new supplementary forecast information below and on the October 2024 EFO page.
In accordance with the fiscal framework agreed by the Welsh and UK Governments, we are formally commissioned by the Welsh Government to produce independent forecasts for devolved Welsh taxes alongside its Draft Budgets. On 10 December we published our forecasts for devolved Welsh taxes in our 2024 Welsh taxes outlook (WTO). The report is available…
Since the publication of our September 2024 Fiscal risks and sustainability (FRS) report, we have received a request for further detail on our long-term fiscal projections. We have published this new supplementary forecast information below and on the September 2024 FRS page.
Alongside the October 2024 Economic and fiscal outlook we published our Review of the March 2024 departmental expenditure limits (DEL) forecast. We also wrote to the Chair of the Treasury Select Committee with the findings, recommendations and answers to questions received about the review process.
On 25 October, the Shadow Chancellor, Rt. Hon. Jeremy Hunt MP sent an email to Chair Richard Hughes regarding the March 2024 DEL forecast review. Richard Hughes replied on 27 October. Both are available below.
Our latest Forecast evaluation report examines the performance of our March 2023 forecast and scenarios and draws lessons for future exercises. During 2023-24, GDP growth was close to zero and in line with our forecast. Despite rapid falls in energy prices, inflation was still higher than we forecast due to more substantial pass-through of prior…
The proportion of the working-age population in receipt of incapacity benefits reached a post-financial crisis high of 7.0 per cent in 2023-24 and is forecast to continue rising. This Welfare trends report focuses on the operation of the incapacity benefits system since 2010. Only a minority of the rise in incapacity benefits onflows over the…
Based on current policy and the latest demographic projections, public debt is projected to almost triple from under 100 per cent of GDP to over 270 per cent of GDP over the next 50 years. The estimated damage to the economy and public finances from a changing climate could add between 20 and 30 per…
This discussion paper sets out how public investment is accounted for in our fiscal forecast, before exploring the key transmission mechanisms through which it can affect potential output. It then outlines our proposed approach to modelling the impact of public investment on potential output. We assess the time lags between public investment and its impact…
Our latest Forecast evaluation report (FER) will be published at 11am on Thursday 19 October. Our FER examines how our forecasts compare to subsequent outturn data and identifies lessons for future forecasts. This report will focus on how our March 2021 and March 2022 economy and fiscal forecasts for 2022-23 fared against the outturns.