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Supplementary forecast information release

Since the publication of our March 2022 Economic and fiscal outlook (EFO) we have received a request for further information into our forecast of income streams subject to self-assessment income tax. We have published this new supplementary forecast information below and on the March 2022 EFO page.

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Exchange of letters between Mel Stride MP and Richard Hughes

The Chair of the Treasury Select Committee, Mel Stride MP wrote to our Chair Richard Hughes on 23 August regarding the OBR’s preparations for a potential Emergency Budget in September. The Chair replied to his letter on 26 August. We have published both of these letters below. Richard Hughes updated Mel Stride on 29 September about…

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Debt interest and support for energy bills add to borrowing

The budget deficit continues to fall year on year, with April-to-July borrowing of £55.0 billion down £12.1 billion on last year. But it was £3.0 billion above our March forecast profile, largely reflecting higher spending. Sharp rises in inflation continue to raise debt interest costs by even more than our forecast assumed, while the cost-of-living…

Line chart showing cumulative public sector net borrowing

Higher inflation delivers record debt interest spending

The budget deficit continues to fall year on year, with April-to-June borrowing of £55.4 billion down £5.7 billion on last year. But it was £3.7 billion above our most recent forecast profile, largely reflecting higher spending, alongside modestly lower receipts. Debt interest spending hit a record high – for both the single month of June…

Cumulative public sector net borrowing

Higher inflation pushes debt interest spending up sharply

The budget deficit continued to fall in May, with year-to-date borrowing of £35.9 billion down £6.4 billion on last year. But it was £6.4 billion above our most recent forecast profile. This overshoot reflects both lower receipts and higher spending – with debt interest spending in the year to date a fifth higher than forecast…

Line chart showing cumulative public sector net borrowing

Cash tax receipts outperform our forecast in April

The budget deficit continued to fall in April 2022, with borrowing of £18.6 billion down £5.6 billion on last year and just £0.6 billion below our most recent forecast profile. By contrast the more timely data from cash receipts were particularly strong, up 18.5 per cent on last April and £6.4 billion (10.2 per cent)…