The ONS’s initial full-year estimate of government borrowing in 2023-24 is £120.7 billion (4.4 per cent GDP), a £7.6 billion (5.9 per cent) decrease on the previous year. This is £6.6 billion (5.8 per cent) higher than our March forecast. This difference is largely driven by the initial estimate of central government receipts, which is…

Since the publication of our March 2024 Economic and fiscal outlook (EFO) we have received a request for information on work capability assessment reform. We have published this new supplementary forecast information below and on the March 2024 EFO page.

Since the publication of our March 2024 Economic and fiscal outlook (EFO) we have received requests for information on universal credit in-work and universal credit budgeting advances. We have published this new supplementary forecast information below and on the March 2024 EFO page.

This morning’s ONS data release estimates that borrowing in the first 11 months of 2023-24 was £106.8 billion, £4.6 billion below the same period last year. Borrowing in February was £8.4 billion, down £3.4 billion on the same month last year.

Since the publication of our March 2024 Economic and fiscal outlook (EFO) we have received requests for information on car engine types in the fuel duty forecast and further information on health and disability benefit spending. We have published this new supplementary forecast information below and on the March 2024 EFO page.

We have published two letters of correspondence on our website today. John McDonnell MP wrote to us on 7 March asking for clarification on the methodology used for the CGT changes announced at Budget and for an explanation of the different numbers presented in the OBR’s Economic and fiscal outlook and the Treasury’s Red Book….

Richard Hughes distils the key messages from our latest Economic and fiscal outlook in his press conference presentation and accompanying speaking note.

Overall, the economic and fiscal outlook is similar to November. While growth has slightly disappointed since then, a steeper fall in inflation and interest rates should support a stronger recovery. Against this backdrop, the Budget announces another 2p cut in national insurance, the cost of which is partly recouped through other tax rises. Public services…

We have published an update to the Welsh taxes outlook (WTO) with new forecasts for land transaction tax and landfill disposals tax receipts, including evaluations of our previous forecasts including for the Welsh rates of income tax. The report is available in English and Welsh language. Welsh taxes outlook Rhagolwg trethi Cymreig

With the Spring Budget on 6 March, we will not be publishing our usual Public Sector Finances monthly commentary. January’s outturn, including revised PAYE and NIC1 receipts, was incorporated into the Round 2 pre-measures forecast submitted to the Chancellor on 14 February.

In our November 2023 Economic and fiscal outlook (EFO), we analysed the economic impacts of the Government’s cuts to NICs and allowing full expensing of some business investments. We have published two papers providing further detail on the modelling behind our analysis below and on the November 2023 EFO page.

November 2023 All policy costings presented to the Office for Budget Responsibility at Autumn Statement 2023 were scrutinised and were certified as reasonable, central estimates and were included in our forecasts. The Government’s Autumn Statement 2023 policy costings document briefly describes the methodologies underpinning these costings. In our November 2023 Economic and fiscal outlook we…

Forecast timetable On 27 December 2023 the Chancellor announced that the Spring Budget 2024 will be held on Wednesday 6 March and commissioned us to publish our latest outlook for the economy and public finances that day. We have now agreed the timetable for the forecast process and published the detail below. Update on 23…

This morning’s ONS release shows that borrowing in the first nine months of 2023-24 totalled £119.1 billion, £11.1 billion above the same period last year. This is £4.9 billion below the monthly profile consistent with our November forecast, largely due to lower than expected inflation reducing debt interest payments.

Since the publication of our November 2023 Economic and fiscal outlook (EFO) we have received requests for information on our estimates of the number of individuals whose conditionality group will be different as a result of the work capability assessment (WCA) reforms. We have published this new supplementary forecast information below and on the November…