This morning’s ONS release provides an initial estimate for 2024-25 public sector net borrowing of £151.9 billion. This is £20.7 billion above the previous year and £14.6 billion above our March forecast. As the ONS state, this initial estimate should be seen as provisional and is typically revised in future. However, the current difference with…

In this paper, we present a new overlapping generations model of the UK economy. It takes a detailed approach to real-world trends around demographics, life-cycle behaviour and differences within and between generations, all in a general equilibrium setting. Calibrated to match UK economic data and reflect key features of our tax, spending and welfare systems,…

Against a more challenging and uncertain outlook than in autumn, we have halved our forecast for economic growth this year from 2 to 1 per cent and lowered the forecast path for the level of productivity. Before accounting for policy, higher debt interest costs and other forecast changes left the current budget in deficit by…

Richard Hughes distils the key messages from our latest Economic and fiscal outlook in his press conference presentation and accompanying speaking note.

On 16 December 2024 the Chancellor commissioned us to publish our latest outlook for the economy and public finances on Wednesday 26 March. We have now agreed the timetable for the forecast process and published the detail below. Update on 12 March: Financial market assumptions and the incorporation of outturn data The final pre-measures fiscal…

We have released additional information on the methodology and assumptions underlying our migration analysis in our 2024 Fiscal risks and sustainability report (FRS). We have published this new supplementary forecast information below and on the September 2024 FRS page.

This morning’s ONS release estimates that borrowing in the first ten months of 2024-25 totalled £118.2 billion. This is £11.6 billion above the same period last year and £12.8 billion above the monthly profile consistent with our October forecast. The year-to-date shortfall against forecast is driven by lower-than-expected receipts, particularly self-assessed tax receipts and corporation…

We have published an update to the Welsh taxes outlook with new forecasts for land transaction tax and landfill disposals tax receipts, alongside evaluations of our previous forecasts including for the Welsh rates of income tax. The report is available in English and Welsh. Welsh taxes outlook – December 2024 Rhagolwg trethi Cymreig – Rhagfyr…

The OBR’s non-executive members commissioned Laura van Geest, former head of the Netherlands Bureau of Economic Policy Analysis (CPB) to lead the third external review of the work of the OBR in May 2024. The review concludes that “Over the last five years, the OBR has successfully navigated a series of unprecedented economic and fiscal…

The third external review of the work of the OBR, led by Laura van Geest, will be published on Monday 10 February.

Since the publication of our October 2024 Economic and fiscal outlook (EFO) we have received requests for further information on the costing of changes to carried interest, non-domicile regime, and IHT on pensions measures. We have published this new supplementary forecast information below and on the October 2024 EFO page.

Since the publication of our October 2024 Economic and fiscal outlook (EFO) we have received requests for further information on the costing of changes to agricultural and business property reliefs and capital gains tax measures. We have published this new supplementary forecast information below and on the October 2024 EFO page.

This morning’s ONS release estimates that borrowing in the first nine months of 2024-25 totalled £129.9 billion. This is £4.1 billion above the monthly profile consistent with our October forecast. This upside surprise against profile reflects higher-than-expected borrowing by local authorities and public corporations, with central government borrowing – the largest sector – slightly below…

This morning’s ONS release shows that borrowing in the first eight months of 2024-25 totalled £113.2 billion. This is £0.4 billion below the same period last year but £2.0 billion above the monthly profile consistent with our October forecast. This difference reflects upward revisions to borrowing by local authorities and public corporations, which is only…

The Chancellor has announced that the Spring forecast  will take place on Wednesday 26 March 2025. Our latest outlook for the economy and public finances will be released on the same day.