This morning’s ONS release shows that borrowing in the first nine months of 2023-24 totalled £119.1 billion, £11.1 billion above the same period last year. This is £4.9 billion below the monthly profile consistent with our November forecast, largely due to lower than expected inflation reducing debt interest payments.

Since the publication of our November 2023 Economic and fiscal outlook (EFO) we have received requests for information on our estimates of the number of individuals whose conditionality group will be different as a result of the work capability assessment (WCA) reforms. We have published this new supplementary forecast information below and on the November…

The Chancellor has announced that the Spring Budget will take place on Wednesday 6 March 2024. Our latest outlook for the economy and public finances will be released on the same day. Economic and fiscal outlooks

Since the publication of our November 2023 Economic and fiscal outlook (EFO) we have received requests for further information on our deposit rate forecast. We have published this new supplementary forecast information below and on the November 2023 EFO page.

The ONS release this morning shows borrowing in the first eight months of 2023-24 totalled £116.4 billion, £24.4 billion above the same period last year.  In the remainder of the year, we expect borrowing to rise more slowly than last year due primarily to stronger receipts.

We have published our forecasts for devolved Welsh taxes in our 2023 Welsh taxes outlook (WTO).  The report is available in English and Welsh language. Welsh taxes outlook – December 2023 Rhagolwg trethi Cymreig – Rhagfyr 2023

The Chair of the OBR has written to the Editor of the Sunday Telegraph regarding an article about a member of OBR staff that appeared in their 17 December edition. We have published this letter below.

Since the publication of our November 2023 Economic and fiscal outlook (EFO) we have received requests for further information on our electricity price forecast, National Living Wage assumptions and additional taxpayers by tax rate band. We have published this new supplementary forecast information below and on the November 2023 EFO page.

Richard Hughes distils the key messages from our latest Economic and fiscal outlook in his press conference presentation and accompanying speaking note.

In this paper, we take a comprehensive look at the evolution of the significant and widening gap in the amount of income tax paid per person in Scotland and Wales relative to the UK as a whole, exploring the drivers behind the changes in order to identify trends that should be factored into our devolved…

Since its creation, the OBR has scrutinised over 250 policy costings relating to changes in the benefits and tax credits systems. This paper looks back at how our scrutiny of those policy costings has evolved by reviewing ten case studies of major welfare policy changes taken from the 41 welfare policy announcements made by the…

Over the last five years, the OBR has made great efforts to understand and analyse the fiscal implications of climate change. To date, our analysis has focused primarily on mitigation risks, most notably in the climate change chapter of our 2021 Fiscal risks report (FRR) which provided the UK’s first comprehensive estimate of the fiscal…

The ONS release this morning shows borrowing in the first six months of 2023-24 totalled £81.7 billion, £15.3 billion above the same period last year but £19.8 billion below the monthly profile consistent with our March forecast. The downside surprise is more than explained by higher central government receipts (£14.7 billion above profile), reflecting stronger…

On 5 September the Chancellor announced that the Autumn Statement 2023 will be held on Wednesday 22 November and commissioned us to publish our latest outlook for the economy and public finances that day. We have now agreed the timetable for the forecast process and published the detail below.

Borrowing in the first five months of 2023-24 totalled £69.6 billion, £19.3 billion above the same period last year but £11.3 billion below the monthly profile consistent with our March forecast. The downside surprise is more than explained by higher central government receipts (£12.6 billion above profile), reflecting stronger nominal tax bases. This was partly…