Other news

Line chart showing difference in borrowing between March 2019 forecast and restated March 2019 forecast

Restated March 2019 forecast

We have restated our March 2019 borrowing forecast to include recent ONS statistical changes but have not incorporated any other new data, new judgements nor include an update to the economy forecast. After incorporating these changes, borrowing has increased materially by around £20bn each year. We wrote to the Treasury on 29 October about our intention to publish…

Borrowing up £4.3 billion so far in 2019-20

Borrowing in the first half of 2019-20 was revised down by £5.2 billion, thanks to lower central government spending and lower local authority borrowing. But it rose by £2.3 billion on a year earlier in October alone. That leaves the year-to-date deficit up £4.3 billion on the same period last year – a 10 per…

Borrowing up £7.2 billion in first half of 2019-20

Mid-way through 2019-20, borrowing is up £7.2 billion on the same point last year, with strong growth in public spending outweighing more modest growth in receipts. Prospects for full-year borrowing will depend on the extent to which spending growth slows – as seems likely – and whether receipts growth is maintained – which depends in…

Data revisions raise borrowing significantly

Borrowing in 2018-19 was revised up by £15.8 billion this month to £41.4 billion, thanks largely to statistical changes. These include planned improvements to the accounting treatment of student loans and a substantial correction to corporation tax data. The effect of the changes in 2019-20 leaves the deficit on course to exceed our March forecast…

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Letter to Treasury Select Committee on Spending Round 2019 and our next forecast

The Chancellor used last week’s Spending Round to announce a significant increase in departmental spending in 2020-21. The OBR’s Budget Responsibility Committee gave evidence to the Treasury Select Committee today on the fiscal implications of the announcement. In addition, Robert Chote has written to the Interim Chair, John Mann, explaining our role during a spending…

Sharp rise in borrowing so far in 2019-20

Borrowing has risen relative to last year in each of the past four months. For the year to date, it is now up £6.0 billion on a year earlier – already a little above the £5.7 billion full-year rise implied by our March forecast. Spending growth has picked up to around twice the rate we…

Shopping bag graphic

Supplementary forecast information release

Since the publication of our March 2019 Economic and fiscal outlook we have received a request for further detail on the VAT standard rated share of consumer spending. We have published this new supplementary forecast information on the March 2019 EFO page.

Overview of the July 2019 Fiscal risks report

In 2017 we produced our first Fiscal risks report (FRR), an assessment of the shocks and pressures that could threaten our forecast for the public finances over the medium term and fiscal sustainability over the longer term. In this, our second report, we revisit and broaden that assessment in light of recent economic and fiscal…

Fiscal risks report 2019

Our second Fiscal risks report will be published at 9.30am on Thursday 18 July, two years since our inaugural report on risks to the public finances. Commissioned by Parliament in 2015, the report identifies and analyses risks to the medium term outlook for the public finances and to long-term fiscal sustainability. It covers a wide…