Our latest Forecast evaluation report examines the performance of our March 2023 forecast and scenarios and draws lessons for future exercises. During 2023-24, GDP growth was close to zero and in line with our forecast. Despite rapid falls in energy prices, inflation was still higher than we forecast due to more substantial pass-through of prior…

The proportion of the working-age population in receipt of incapacity benefits reached a post-financial crisis high of 7.0 per cent in 2023-24 and is forecast to continue rising. This Welfare trends report focuses on the operation of the incapacity benefits system since 2010. Only a minority of the rise in incapacity benefits onflows over the…

Since the publication of our March 2024 Economic and fiscal outlook (EFO) we have received a request for further information underlying our environmental levies forecast. We have published this new supplementary forecast information below and on the March 2024 EFO page.

This morning’s ONS release shows that borrowing in the first five months of 2024-25 totalled £64.1 billion.This is £0.3 billion above the same period last year and £6.2 billion above the monthly profile consistent with our March forecast. Higher-than-expected borrowing continues to be driven by departmental spending, particularly consumption expenditure on goods and services which…

Richard Hughes distils the key messages from our latest Fiscal risks and sustainability report in his press conference presentation and accompanying speaking note. Watch back on YouTube here:

Based on current policy and the latest demographic projections, public debt is projected to almost triple from under 100 per cent of GDP to over 270 per cent of GDP over the next 50 years. The estimated damage to the economy and public finances from a changing climate could add between 20 and 30 per…

This discussion paper sets out how public investment is accounted for in our fiscal forecast, before exploring the key transmission mechanisms through which it can affect potential output. It then outlines our proposed approach to modelling the impact of public investment on potential output. We assess the time lags between public investment and its impact…

This morning’s ONS release shows that borrowing in the first four months of 2024-25 totalled £51.4 billion. This is £0.5 billion below the same period last year and £4.7 billion above the monthly profile consistent with our March forecast. The difference with our forecast profile is driven primarily by higher-than-forecast consumption spending by government departments…

Our 2024 Welfare trends report (WTR) will be published on Thursday 10 October. This biennial report will examine the drivers of spending on incapacity benefits over the last 50 years. Alongside this, we will also publish our 2024 Forecast evaluation report (FER) on Thursday 10 October. We will focus on our March 2023 forecast and…

Our latest report on Fiscal risks and sustainability (FRS) will be published on Thursday 12 September. The 2024 FRS report will focus on three areas: Climate change, where we will explore the potential fiscal costs of damage from a changing climate, supplementing our 2021 analysis of the fiscal cost of getting to net zero. Health,…

The Chancellor has announced that the Autumn Budget will take place on Wednesday 30 October 2024. Our latest outlook for the economy and public finances will be released on the same day.

OBR Chair Richard Hughes has written to the Treasury Select Committee of the House of Commons to inform them that the OBR has initiated a review into the preparation of the Departmental Expenditure Limits (DEL) forecast for the March 2024 Economic and fiscal outlook (EFO). The review will conclude in advance of our next EFO…

We have published our updated tax and spending ‘ready reckoner’ that allows anyone to obtain quick, indicative estimates of the fiscal impact of a particular change in one or more economic variables. Read our updated article on the ready reckoner to find out more. We also received a request for further information on the price…

Borrowing in the first three months of 2024-25 was £49.8 billion, £1.1 billion below the same period last year but £3.2 billion above our forecast profile. This was largely driven by highly provisional data on departmental spending returns, particularly for consumption expenditure which is £4.6 billion higher than forecast. Receipts in the first three months…

The Government has introduced to Parliament the Budget Responsibility Bill and published a draft update to related provisions of the Charter for Budget Responsibility. The Bill would amend the 2011 Budget Responsibility and National Audit Act and require any fiscally significant measures announced by the Government to be accompanied by an independent assessment by the…