Other news

Line chart showing cumulative public sector net borrowing

Year-to-date deficit on track, but policy costs set to mount

Borrowing in the first five months of 2022-23 was just £0.2 billion above our March forecast profile, with higher debt interest payments (£9.0 billion above profile) offset by downside surprises elsewhere. But energy bill support measures have yet to have a material effect on the public finances. The May package has so far added £2.4…

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Supplementary forecast information release

Since the publication of our March 2022 Economic and fiscal outlook (EFO) we have received a request for further information into our forecast of income streams subject to self-assessment income tax. We have published this new supplementary forecast information below and on the March 2022 EFO page.

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Exchange of letters between Mel Stride MP and Richard Hughes

The Chair of the Treasury Select Committee, Mel Stride MP wrote to our Chair Richard Hughes on 23 August regarding the OBR’s preparations for a potential Emergency Budget in September. The Chair replied to his letter on 26 August. We have published both of these letters below. Richard Hughes updated Mel Stride on 29 September about…

Line chart showing cumulative public sector net borrowing

Debt interest and support for energy bills add to borrowing

The budget deficit continues to fall year on year, with April-to-July borrowing of £55.0 billion down £12.1 billion on last year. But it was £3.0 billion above our March forecast profile, largely reflecting higher spending. Sharp rises in inflation continue to raise debt interest costs by even more than our forecast assumed, while the cost-of-living…

Line chart showing cumulative public sector net borrowing

Higher inflation delivers record debt interest spending

The budget deficit continues to fall year on year, with April-to-June borrowing of £55.4 billion down £5.7 billion on last year. But it was £3.7 billion above our most recent forecast profile, largely reflecting higher spending, alongside modestly lower receipts. Debt interest spending hit a record high – for both the single month of June…

Overview for FRS

Overview of the July 2022 Fiscal risks and sustainability

In little more than two years, the UK economy and public finances have felt the consequences of a global health crisis caused by Covid-19, a global security crisis sparked by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and a global energy crisis brought about by both. In a little over a decade, we have also felt the economic…

Cumulative public sector net borrowing

Higher inflation pushes debt interest spending up sharply

The budget deficit continued to fall in May, with year-to-date borrowing of £35.9 billion down £6.4 billion on last year. But it was £6.4 billion above our most recent forecast profile. This overshoot reflects both lower receipts and higher spending – with debt interest spending in the year to date a fifth higher than forecast…

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Fiscal risks and sustainability 2022 due 7 July

Our two biennial reports on the long-term sustainability of the public finances (Fiscal sustainability report) and fiscal risks facing the UK (Fiscal risks report) will be combined into a single annual report for the first time this summer. Our first report on Fiscal risks and sustainability will be published on Thursday 7 July. The 2022…

Line chart showing cumulative public sector net borrowing

Cash tax receipts outperform our forecast in April

The budget deficit continued to fall in April 2022, with borrowing of £18.6 billion down £5.6 billion on last year and just £0.6 billion below our most recent forecast profile. By contrast the more timely data from cash receipts were particularly strong, up 18.5 per cent on last April and £6.4 billion (10.2 per cent)…

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Welfare trends report – May 2022

The pandemic caused the deepest recession in the UK in living memory, prompted the largest fiscal policy response outside the World Wars, and has, so far, been followed by an unusually rapid economic recovery. The past two years also reshaped welfare spending and can be expected to continue to do so. So this year’s Welfare…

Welfare trends report due 24 May

Welfare trends report to be published on 24 May

Our latest Welfare trends report (WTR) will be published at 11am on Tuesday 24 May. Our biennial WTR examines the drivers of welfare spending. This year’s report will focus on changes in non-pensioner welfare spending during and after recessions, comparing the pandemic to the previous three UK recessions in the past half-century.

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2021-22 budget deficit exceeds March 2022 forecast

The initial full-year estimate of government borrowing in 2021-22 is £151.8 billion, less than half the 2020-21 figure but £24.0 billion above our March forecast (and £16.7 billion above it on a like-for-like basis). This surprise relative to forecast is largely due to higher-than-expected central government spending, which outweighed stronger-than-expected receipts. The like-for-like surprise could…

Borrowing

Spring Statement uses fiscal windfall to cushion historic hit to living standards

The public finances have emerged from the pandemic in better shape than expected. But Russia’s invasion of Ukraine will push inflation to a 40-year high of almost 9 per cent, and living standards are set for a historic fall over the next 12 months. The Chancellor used his Spring Statement to deliver rebates and tax…