Robert Chote distils the key messages from our latest Economic and fiscal outlook – published today – in his press conference presentation and accompanying speaking note.

The Government is no longer on course to balance the budget during the current Parliament and has formally dropped this ambition in a significant loosening of its fiscal targets. Public sector net borrowing is now expected to fall more slowly than we forecast in March, primarily reflecting weak tax receipts so far this year and…

The Chancellor has relaxed his fiscal targets to make space for a modest infrastructure spending giveaway over the next five years. A weaker outlook for the economy and tax revenues – and these new spending commitments – mean that the budget is no longer expected to return to surplus in this Parliament, with a £21…

November 2016 All policy costings presented to the Office for Budget Responsibility at Autumn Statement 2016 were scrutinised and were certified as reasonable, central estimates were included in our forecasts. The Government’s Autumn Statement 2016 policy costings document briefly describes the methodologies underpinning these costings. In our November 2016 Economic and fiscal outlook we have published…

The depth and breadth of the economic and fiscal analysis published by the OBR “can be considered as best-practice, and could be used as a benchmark by other advanced countries”, according to the International Monetary Fund’s Fiscal Transparency Evaluation for the UK. “While it is still relatively early in its track record, the OBR’s forecasting…

Pre-announced tax changes encourage house buyers to bring forward purchases, costing Government tax revenue. Download Working paper No.10: Forestalling ahead of property tax changes

Straightforward cuts in the generosity of benefits and tax credits are proving more reliable ways to cut the welfare budget than complex structural reforms to incapacity and disability benefits.

Deficit overshoot against 2010 forecast dominated by £85 billion weaker than expected receipts.

Straightforward cuts in the generosity of benefits and tax credits are proving more reliable ways to cut the welfare budget than complex structural reforms to incapacity and disability benefits. Read more in our latest Welfare trends report.

We’re consulting on the content of our Fiscal risks report, due to be published for the first time next year.

Despite medium-term savings, we estimate reforms to cost the Exchequer £5 billion a year by 2034-35.

We look at some of the detailed considerations that we take into account in our long-term projections in our recent health spending Fiscal sustainability analytical paper.

The Treasury Select Committee has approved the appointment of Sir Charles Bean, former Deputy Governor of the Bank of England and currently Professor of Economics at the London School of Economics, to join the OBR’s Budget Responsibility Committee.

The Chancellor of the Exchequer has nominated Sir Charles Bean, LSE professor and former Deputy Governor of the Bank of England, to join the OBR’s Budget Responsibility Committee. If the nomination is approved by the Treasury Select Committee, he would formally join the OBR at the beginning of 2017 (hence after the Autumn Statement), replacing…

Following the cancellation of our 2016 Fiscal sustainability report we have published three Fiscal sustainability analytical papers today. They cover: the public sector balance sheet; the longer-term effects of student loan policy announcements over the past year; and how changes in mortality rate assumptions in the latest population projections would affect state pensions spending.  …