Robert Chote distils the key messages from our inaugural Fiscal risks report in his press conference presentation and accompanying speaking note.

Confronted by a vulnerable fiscal position and a challenging political environment, the Government will need to review the fiscal risks that it has exposed itself to for policy reasons, to prepare for the cost of unexpected shocks and to address some long-term pressures on receipts and spending. And to do so while managing the uncertainties…

The Office for Budget Responsibility has produced regular medium-term forecasts and long-term projections for the UK public finances since 2010. We have always emphasised the uncertainty that lies around them and have quantified it in various ways. Parliament has now asked us to build on this work by producing a regular report on ‘fiscal risks’….

The Chancellor has approved the appointment of Sir Christopher Kelly as a non-executive member of the OBR. Sir Christopher will succeed Dame Kate Barker on the oversight board, which holds responsibility for managing risks and safeguarding the independence of the OBR.

Robert Chote distils the key messages from our latest Economic and fiscal outlook – published today – in his press conference presentation and accompanying speaking note.

March 2017 All policy costings presented to the Office for Budget Responsibility at Budget 2017 were scrutinised and were certified as reasonable, central estimates were included in our forecasts. The Government’s Budget 2017 policy costings document briefly describes the methodologies underpinning these costings. In our March 2017 Economic and fiscal outlook we have published an…

Public sector net borrowing is likely to be significantly lower this year than we anticipated at the time of the Autumn Statement in November, largely reflecting one-off factors and timing effects that flatter the figures at the expense of next year. So much so, in fact, that borrowing is now forecast to rise in 2017-18…

The deficit is likely to be significantly lower this year than we anticipated in November, largely reflecting one-off factors and timing effects. Borrowing is now forecast to rise temporarily in 2017-18 – to roughly the level we forecast in November – before returning to a downward trajectory. The Chancellor remains on course to meet his…

Since the publication of our November 2016 Economic and fiscal outlook we have received a request for further detail underlying the alternative productivity scenarios. We have published this new supplementary forecast information on the November 2016 EFO page of our website.

The ONS have announced that the publication of the second estimate of Q4 2016 GDP and associated data will brought forward one day, to 22 February 2017, in response to a request from the OBR.

We have recently launched a new area of the website that brings together a wealth of information on our economic and fiscal forecasts.  

As part of our ongoing goal to increase the transparency and accessibility of information, we have launched a new area of our website: Forecasts in-depth. Over time, we will collate and publish a wealth of material to this new area on each part of our economic and fiscal forecasts.

Since the publication of our November 2016 Economic and fiscal outlook we have received a request to publish the receipts and spending breakdowns of the alternative decomposition of changes in borrowing and a breakdown of changes in the oil and gas revenues forecast. We have published this new supplementary forecast information on the main EFO…

Since the publication of our November 2016 Devolved taxes we have received a request to publish further detail of our forecasts. We have published this new supplementary forecast information on the main EFO page of our website.