Richard Hughes distils the key messages from our latest Economic and fiscal outlook in his press conference presentation and accompanying speaking note.

The successful vaccine rollout has allowed the economy to reopen largely on schedule, despite continuing high numbers of coronavirus cases. The vaccines’ high degree of effectiveness, combined with consumers’ and businesses’ surprising degree of adaptability to public health restrictions, has meant that output this year has recovered faster than we expected in March, boosting tax…

A rebounding economy has provided the Chancellor with a Budget windfall that he has added to with tax rises that lift the tax burden to its highest since the early 1950s. He has used these revenues to fund a large increase in public spending, while reducing the budget deficit to pre-pandemic levels, and meeting his…

October 2021 All policy costings presented to the Office for Budget Responsibility at Budget and Spending Review 2021 were scrutinised and were certified as reasonable, central estimates were included in our forecasts. The Government’s Budget and Spending Review 2021 policy costings document briefly describes the methodologies underpinning these costings. In our October 2021 Economic and…

We will publish our latest Economic and fiscal outlook (EFO) on Wednesday 27 October once the Chancellor has completed his Budget statement in Parliament. The EFO will present our latest forecast for the economy and public finances, which will include all policy measures announced since our previous forecast in March, including in the combined Spending…

Government borrowing in August 2021 was £20.5 billion, down £5.5 billion from the same month last year. Year to date borrowing of £93.8 billion is now £31.9 billion below our March forecast profile. That reflects both stronger than expected receipts (thanks largely to a faster than expected economic recovery) and lower than expected spending (due…

Government borrowing in July 2021 was £10.4 billion, down £10.1 billion from the same month last year. Year-to-date borrowing of £78.0 billion is now £26.1 billion below our March forecast profile. That reflects both stronger-than-expected receipts (thanks largely to a faster-than-expected economic recovery) and lower-than-expected spending (due to the faster-than-expected unwinding of covid-related government support).

Last week HMT launched the recruitment campaign to find Professor Sir Charlie Bean’s successor as the economic expert on the Budget Responsibility Committee. The Budget Responsibility Committee (BRC) takes collective responsibility for the analysis and judgements that underpin the work of the office and consists of three executive members. Executive members are appointed by the…

The Chancellor of the Exchequer has commissioned the OBR to prepare our next forecast for the economy and public finances for publication on Wednesday 27 October. Read the Chancellor’s letter to the Chair of the Treasury Select Committee.

Government borrowing in June 2021 was £22.8 billion, down over 19 per cent from last year. Year-to-date borrowing of £69.5 billion is now £19.0 billion below our March forecast profile. That reflects both stronger-than-expected receipts (consistent with the faster economic rebound in recent months) and lower-than-expected spending (perhaps reflecting continued shortfalls in spending on pandemic-related…

Richard Hughes distils the key messages from our third Fiscal risks report in his press conference presentation and accompanying speaking note.

After the second ‘once in a century’ shock in just two decades, our third Fiscal risks report focuses on three large, and potentially catastrophic, sources of fiscal risks. The pandemic could leave £10 billion per year in spending pressures and long-term economic scars. While unmitigated climate change would spell disaster, the net fiscal costs of…

We have just published our Annual report and accounts 2020-21, which outlines our achievements over the past year and contains an assessment of how we have performed our main duties by our non-executive members. It also contains our accounts for the last financial year and information about how we work.

Government borrowing in May 2021 was £24.3 billion, down over 40 per cent from last year. And year-to-date borrowing of £53.4 billion is £14.1 billion below our March forecast profile. More than a third of that reflects differences in the timing of EU divorce bill payments. But lower spending and moderately stronger receipts growth mean…

On 22 June we published a small update to the Welsh taxes outlook based on recent developments in land transaction tax and landfill disposals tax receipts. Ar 22 Mehefin cyhoeddwyd diweddariad bach gennym i ragolygon trethi Cymru yn seiliedig ar ddatblygiadau diweddar mewn derbyniadau treth trafodion tir a derbyniadau treth gwarediadau tirlenwi. Read the Welsh…