Other news

Supplementary forecast information release

Since the publication of our November 2017 Economic and fiscal outlook we have received a request for further detail underlying our housing supply forecast. We have published this new supplementary forecast information on the November 2017 EFO page.

Autumn Budget – growth downgrade and Budget giveaways push the deficit higher

We have revised down our productivity and GDP forecasts and, despite lower borrowing this year, revised up our forecast for the budget deficit. The Chancellor has raised the deficit further with higher public spending and a net tax giveaway. Read more in the November 2017 Economic and fiscal outlook.

Policy costings document November 2017

November 2017 All policy costings presented to the Office for Budget Responsibility at Autumn Budget 2017 were scrutinised and were certified as reasonable, central estimates were included in our forecasts. The Government’s Autumn Budget 2017 policy costings document briefly describes the methodologies underpinning these costings. In our November 2017 Economic and fiscal outlook we have published…

Overview of the November 2017 Economic and fiscal outlook

The UK economy has slowed this year as households’ real incomes and spending have been squeezed by higher inflation. GDP growth has been a little weaker than we expected in March, but once again we have been more surprised by the strength of employment growth and the corresponding weakness of productivity growth. The persistence of…

Supplementary forecast information release

Since the publication of our March 2017 Economic and fiscal outlook we have received a request for further detail underlying our business rates forecast. We have published this new supplementary forecast information on the March 2017 EFO page.

Deficit falls in the first half of 2017-18

Halfway through 2017-18, borrowing is £2.5 billion down on the same period in 2016-17. While this suggests we will need to revise down full-year borrowing in our November forecast, it remains likely that the deficit will rise relative to 2016-17. Self-assessment income tax receipts in January and February are expected to fall year-on-year.

Learning forecast lessons

The OBR is likely to revise down potential productivity growth in its November forecast, weakening the outlook for the public finances. This would be partially offset by lower equilibrium unemployment, more hours worked and downward revisions to borrowing last year.

Welfare trends report

We have decided to push back the publication of our 2017 Welfare trends report from 10 October to later in the financial year. The report will focus on the forecasting of Universal credit ahead of next year’s planned surge in the number of UC recipients.

Year-to-date deficit little changed on last year

Government borrowing was £0.2 billion lower than last year over the first five months of 2017-18. Our March forecast predicted a rise in borrowing for 2017-18 as a whole, with self-assessment income tax paid in the second half of the year expected to fall relative to 2016-17.

The outlook for debt interest spending

Official figures this week showed a big jump in government debt interest spending. Read our paper on the debt interest outlook and risks. This paper is a slightly modified standalone version of Chapter 8 of our July 2017 Fiscal risks report.

Supplementary forecast information release

Since the publication of our March 2016 Economic and fiscal outlook we have received a request for further detail underlying our stamp duty land tax (SDLT) forecast. We have published this new supplementary forecast information on the March 2016 EFO page.

Spending pushes deficit higher

The budget deficit in June was around £2 billion up on last year and £2 billion higher than market expectations, reflecting strong growth in departmental spending, debt interest payments and contributions to the EU. Read more