The Chancellor has announced that the publication of our forecast will be set to a later date of 17 November. That day our latest outlook for the economy and public finances will accompany the Chancellor’s Autumn Statement. Earlier this month we published a timetable for the 31 October forecast process. We have now amended the…

On 10 October the Chancellor announced that the publication of our forecast will be brought forward to Monday 31 October. That day we will publish our latest outlook for the economy and public finances. In light of the heightened public interest, and in response to the recommendations of our Non-Executive Members’ recent review of the forecast…

The OBR’s Budget Responsibility Committee met with the Prime Minister and Chancellor this morning. We discussed the economic and fiscal outlook and the forecast we are preparing for the Chancellor’s Medium-term Fiscal Plan. We will deliver the first iteration of that forecast to the Chancellor on Friday 7 October and will set out the full…

In August the Chair of the Treasury Select Committee, Mel Stride MP and Chair Richard Hughes exchanged letters regarding the OBR’s preparations for a potential Emergency Budget. Richard Hughes has now updated Mel Stride on the 23 November forecast timetable.

The Chancellor has commissioned the OBR to publish an updated forecast on 23 November alongside the Medium-Term Fiscal Plan. As part of every forecasting process, we provide the Chancellor with a series of interim drafts of our forecasts as an input into policymaking in the run-up to the final, published Economic and fiscal outlook. The Chancellor…

Ian Blackford, MP and SNP Westminster leader, wrote to Richard Hughes on 23 September expressing the need for an urgent OBR forecast update. Richard Hughes responded on 29 September and we have published the two letters below.

We have been commissioned by the Chancellor to produce a forecast for Wednesday 23 November. That day we will release the latest outlook for the economy and public finances.

Borrowing in the first five months of 2022-23 was just £0.2 billion above our March forecast profile, with higher debt interest payments (£9.0 billion above profile) offset by downside surprises elsewhere. But energy bill support measures have yet to have a material effect on the public finances. The May package has so far added £2.4…

Since the publication of our March 2022 Economic and fiscal outlook (EFO) we have received a request for further information into our forecast of income streams subject to self-assessment income tax. We have published this new supplementary forecast information below and on the March 2022 EFO page.

The Chair of the Treasury Select Committee, Mel Stride MP wrote to our Chair Richard Hughes on 23 August regarding the OBR’s preparations for a potential Emergency Budget in September. The Chair replied to his letter on 26 August. We have published both of these letters below. Richard Hughes updated Mel Stride on 29 September about…

The budget deficit continues to fall year on year, with April-to-July borrowing of £55.0 billion down £12.1 billion on last year. But it was £3.0 billion above our March forecast profile, largely reflecting higher spending. Sharp rises in inflation continue to raise debt interest costs by even more than our forecast assumed, while the cost-of-living…

The budget deficit continues to fall year on year, with April-to-June borrowing of £55.4 billion down £5.7 billion on last year. But it was £3.7 billion above our most recent forecast profile, largely reflecting higher spending, alongside modestly lower receipts. Debt interest spending hit a record high – for both the single month of June…

Richard Hughes distils the key messages from our first Fiscal risks and sustainability in his press conference presentation and accompanying speaking note.

In little more than two years, the UK economy and public finances have felt the consequences of a global health crisis caused by Covid-19, a global security crisis sparked by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and a global energy crisis brought about by both. In a little over a decade, we have also felt the economic…

It is hard to escape the conclusion that the world is becoming a riskier place. The past two decades have seen a global financial crisis, a global health crisis, and a global energy crisis triggered by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. These global shocks add to ageing and other domestic cost pressures to place public debt…