April’s public finances data provide an initial taste of the fiscal hit from the coronavirus lockdown and Government support for individuals and businesses. Tax payments received by HMRC were down 42 per cent on the same month last year, while central government spending jumped 52 per cent. As a result, the budget deficit was the…

Robert Chote thanks the OBR’s staff, alumni, contributors and stakeholders in a video on its 10th anniversary. Robert Chote thanks the OBR’s staff, alumni, contributors and stakeholders on its 10th anniversary 🎂#10yearsofOBR pic.twitter.com/hf5Mr5eaq0 — Office for Budget Responsibility (@OBR_UK) May 14, 2020

Some initial effects of the unfolding coronavirus shock to the public finances are visible in the March cash data. Receipts fell sharply – particularly VAT, where payments have been deferred. Spending increased, in part due to the cost of business support measures. These effects have yet to feed through to the headline accruals measure of…

We have published a new paper studying the evolution of tax revenues and other sources of government income between 2007-08 and 2018-19 – respectively the last full year before the financial crisis and the last full year before the coronavirus crisis.

In addition to its impact on public health, the coronavirus outbreak will substantially raise public sector net borrowing and debt, primarily reflecting economic disruption. The Government’s policy response will also have substantial direct budgetary costs, but the measures should help limit the long-term damage to the economy and public finances – the costs of inaction…

Robert Chote distils the key messages from our latest Economic and fiscal outlook – published today – in his press conference presentation and accompanying speaking note.

March 2020 All policy costings presented to the Office for Budget Responsibility at Budget 2020 were scrutinised and were certified as reasonable, central estimates were included in our forecasts. The Government’s Budget 2020 policy costings document briefly describes the methodologies underpinning these costings. In our March 2020 Economic and fiscal outlook we have published an…

The Chancellor has announced the largest sustained fiscal loosening since Norman Lamont’s pre-election Budget in 1992. In the medium term, this takes real day-to-day spending per person back to pre-austerity levels. But the domestic effects of the coronavirus outbreak and the Government’s response to it came too late to include in our forecasts, which are…

In addition to its impact on public health, the coronavirus is likely to have a significant adverse effect on the economy and public finances in coming quarters. But neither the size nor the duration of this effect are possible to predict with any confidence. The Chief Medical Officer has declared that an epidemic in the…

The OBR is legally required to produce two forecasts in each financial year. Because of the cancellation of the November Budget, our Economic and fiscal outlook on 11 March will be our first forecast in 2019-20. We have written to the Chancellor setting out a number of options for the second forecast and he has…

On 25 February we published an update to the December 2019 Welsh taxes outlook to account for new data released this year. The report is available in English and Welsh language.

Very strong spending growth outweighed strong receipts growth this month, leaving the usual January surplus smaller than it was a year ago. But, over the first ten months of 2019-20, borrowing continues to rise relative to the same period year, albeit at a slower pace than is implied by our latest full-year forecast.  

Today the Treasury has launched the recruitment campaign to find Robert Chote’s successor as the next Chair of the OBR. Robert has led the independent fiscal watchdog since 3 October 2010, and is therefore approaching the end of his second and final five-year term. The chair and other members of the Budget Responsibility Committee (BRC) are…

Borrowing has risen so far this year, but at a slower rate than anticipated in our restated March forecast. With three months of the year to go, a number of uncertainties remain. January is a big month for receipts, while bonus season and end-year departmental spending are always sources of uncertainty.  

Borrowing has risen so far this year, but, following substantial revisions over the past two months, the year-to-date rise is now slower than the full-year rise in our restated March forecast. That said, with four months of the year to go, risks remain: January is a big month for receipts, while bonus season and end-year…