Other news

Deficit continues to fall sharply in 2018-19

Double-digit growth in tax receipts in January generated a record monthly budget surplus, up sharply relative to last year. Over the first ten months of 2018-19, borrowing is now down almost half relative to the same period in 2017-18 – a slightly larger fall than implied by our latest full-year forecast.

Overview of the January 2019 Welfare trends report

One of the main functions of the welfare system is to support people having difficulty supporting themselves due to ill health or disability. This role stretches back more than a century – at least as far as the National Insurance Act of 1911. The financial support provided by today’s welfare system can be split into…

Supplementary forecast information release

Since the publication of our October 2018 Economic and fiscal outlook we have received requests for further detail on the marriage tax allowance and entrepreneurial reliefs. We have published this new supplementary forecast information on the October 2018 EFO page.

Policy costings document October 2018

October 2018 All policies presented to the Office for Budget Responsibility at Budget 2018 were included in our forecasts but three could not be certified as reasonable, central estimates. The Government’s Budget 2018 policy costings document briefly describes the methodologies underpinning these costings. In our October 2018 Economic and fiscal outlook we have published an assessment on…

Strong receipts growth keeps deficit falling

Strong tax receipts and lower debt interest payments are sustaining a sharp fall in the budget deficit relative to last year. Extrapolating performance over the year to date would see the full-year deficit come in £11 billion lower than forecast in March, however the recent strength of cash corporation tax receipts is not yet being…

European Fiscal Board reviews work of the OBR

The independent European Fiscal Board, created to examine the EU fiscal framework and aggregate policy stance, has reviewed the work of the OBR in its Annual Report. It argues that the OBR has retained “a high degree of public trust in its ability to provide objective assessments of the macroeconomic outlook and public finances”. Read…

Discussion paper No.3 Brexit and the OBR's forecasts (alongside image of map of the UK)

Brexit and our forecasts

Since the referendum we have incorporated Brexit into our forecasts using broad brush assumptions, but as Government policy decisions and developments begin to unfold, we look ahead to the issues we will need to consider when we refine these judgements. In our new paper, we begin to consider how our forecasts might change in this…

OBR Working Paper series

The latest in our series of Working Papers were published on 28 September 2018. Working paper No.13: In-year fiscal forecasting and monitoring presents our approach to in-year forecasting and monitoring of the public finances, and discusses how we assess our forecasts against the published data.   Working paper No.14: Devolved income tax: forecasting by tax bands sets…

Year to date borrowing continues to fall

Despite rising in August, borrowing in the first five months of 2018-19 was almost a third lower than in the same period last year. On a like-for-like basis receipts growth has so far outpaced our full-year March forecast, while debt interest spending is already down £2.2 billion on last year.

Substantial year-on-year improvements in the deficit continue

With a £2 billion surplus recorded in July, the deficit in the first four months of 2018-19 is down 40 per cent on a year earlier – a larger fall than implied by our full-year forecast from March. But much of the data remain highly provisional, so it is too soon to draw firm conclusions…